Policy-makers under the Mubarak regime failed to win the trust of the Nile Valley countries, but Egypt today is in a position to lend a hand to its southern neighbours, says Ali Soliman* The last two years of the Mubarak regime witnessed a high degree of intransigence in the dialogue with the Nile Valley countries, with threats and counter threats being used on both sides. Happily, the new face of Egypt ushered in by the 25 January Revolution that has opened new doors and promises a new beginning with our Nile brothers, especially Ethiopia. Despite the positive move shown by the prime minister of Ethiopia regarding freezing the ratification of the Nile Basin Agreement, to which Egypt and Sudan abstained, there are still other areas of misunderstanding. One such area relates to the so-called Millennium Dam. According to the popular press and statements by the former Egyptian minister of irrigation and water resources, the dam will threaten Egypt's quota of Nile water and will be detrimental to Egypt's interests. Such hyperbole has proven to be wrong and misleading. It turned out that the idea of this dam was an old one, and Egypt had known of it for at least three years. The dam is conceived as a hydro-electric dam, and it will not retain water for irrigation. Egypt is likely to benefit from the power generated, and it has offered to invest, with Sudan, in it. So far as we can tell, and as Ethiopia has insisted, this is a win-win situation for all involved. The only area of possible dispute relates to how fast the reservoir should be built, whether over five or ten years or longer. Egypt could be slightly affected if the stock of water behind the Dam accumulates quickly. In any case, it is not planned that the dam will hold more than a fraction of the Nile's flow in any one year. I believe that Egyptian policy- makers under the Mubarak regime not only failed to win the trust and collaboration of the Nile Valley countries, but they also strived to exacerbate the national feeling of danger. The Nile Valley Agreement was presented as if Ethiopia and other up-river countries either wanted or could block the flow of the Nile. Yet, specialists know that the topography of the Ethiopian plateau, with its deep gorges and fast-flowing river, makes it impossible to use dams for irrigation purposes, at least on the Blue Nile. In addition, the Lake Tana region receives abundant rainfall, which is sufficient for all agricultural needs. On the economic side, the Millennium Dam is going to be an expensive undertaking that far exceeds the domestic capabilities of Ethiopia. If the Aswan High Dam was a national challenge for Egypt in 1956, the Millennium Dam is many times more challenging for Ethiopia today. Ethiopia will need foreign assistance in financing and implementing it. The project is said to cost more than $4.8 billion at the official exchange rate, but it is likely to cost twice as much. This amount far exceeds the annual revenue of the country. Any financing from the World Bank or other international institutions will require the consent of Egypt and Sudan, as per international law. So far, no contract has been signed and no financing has been arranged. Early in April of this year, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi laid the foundation stone for the dam in a celebration full of fanfare and nationalistic ardour. He asked Ethiopians, especially those living abroad, to buy bonds that would finance the dam. It is not clear whether these bonds have been printed. Later, and in meetings with the Egyptian Popular Diplomacy delegation, he requested both Egypt and Sudan to participate in up to 40 per cent of the cost of the dam. There are many obstacles ahead for this project. The nature of the terrain, the remote site and the size of the dam are all overwhelming. The dam would take at least four years to build and many more to become fully operational. This does not minimise the seriousness of the challenges facing Egypt on this front, and a new policy of collaboration and support for Ethiopia's legitimate needs for electrical power should be introduced. We can help this neighbouring country in developing its water resources and even help it in building dams on other rivers. The River Awash is a case in point. Another area of collaboration is agricultural development. Ethiopia suffered from years of famine and drought in many areas under the socialist regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam, while it is well known that basic improvements in agricultural techniques, the drilling of wells and storage of surface water can definitely help alleviate the prospects of similar occurrences. It is only natural for Egypt with its age-old experience in intensive agriculture, its talented and plentiful agronomists and its fertiliser and agro-industry to extend a hand to its perennial ally. Let us open a new page with our southern neighbours. * The writer is a professor in the Department of Economics at the British University in Egypt.
