Some 100 days after Egypt rose up against the regime of former president Mubarak, the challenges facing the country are far from over, writes Gamal Essam El-Din Millions of Egyptians led by youth dissenting movements rose up against the corrupt regime of former president Hosni Mubarak on 25 January this year, with 18 days of street protests in Cairo, Alexandria, Suez and other cities finally forcing Mubarak from power on 11 February. Some 100 days later, though the sense of euphoria remains strong a sense of apprehension and concern looms over Egypt. Incidents of sectarian violence, most recently the assaults by Salafis against Coptic Christian churches in the Cairo district of Imbaba, have given rise to fears that Egypt could fall prey to radical religious forces rather than achieve an orderly transition to democracy and the rotation of power. Nevertheless, there is no gainsaying that the 100 days of revolution have gone a long way towards dismantled the autocratic legacy of the Mubarak regime. The three main tools of the regime's rule, the State Security apparatus, the former ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) and the upper and lower houses of parliament, have all been dismantled. Senior officials from the former regime, as well as leading business figures, have been detained on charges of profiteering and the killing of pro- democracy protesters. These have included four of Mubarak's longest-serving henchmen -- former minister of the interior Habib El-Adli, former parliamentary speaker Fathi Sorour, former chairman of the Shura Council, the upper house of Egypt's parliament, Safwat El-Sherif, a leading figure in the NDP, and former Mubarak chief of staff Zakaria Azmi. Ahmed Nazif, Mubarak's prime minister, is also behind bars pending trial on a plethora of corruption charges. Two ministers from Nazif's government, former minister of finance Youssef Boutros Ghali and former minister of trade and industry Rachid Mohamed Rachid, both of whom have fled the country, are expected to be extradited to Egypt to face trial. Mubarak himself and his sons Gamal and Alaa were arrested on 13 April, the latter being sent to Tora prison south of Cairo. Mubarak is being held in hospital at the Red Sea resort of Sharm El-Sheikh, and he could be moved to Tora prison to face further questioning on charges of profiteering, abuse of power and the ordering of the killing of protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square. Suzanne Mubarak, wife of the former president, is expected to be questioned on charges of embezzling public funds and accumulating a vast and illegal fortune. One of the most important achievements of the revolution in the eyes of the young people who led it is that the Mubarak family succession, in which Mubarak's son Gamal was slated to inherit power from his father, has been dismantled. Gamal Mubarak and his business cronies are now in jail awaiting trial on charges that include corruption and facilitating the sale of Egypt's natural gas to Israel at knock-down prices. In addition to these developments, the country's 1971 constitution has been amended to ensure a smooth transition towards democracy. The amendments, announced on 30 March, made it possible for independent and other candidates to stand in the upcoming presidential elections. On the same day, the editors of many of Egypt's state-owned newspapers were fired and the state media given greater margins of freedom. The revolution has also led to a shake-up in Egypt's foreign relations. The cosy relations that formerly obtained between the Mubarak regime and Israel have been abrogated in favour of attempts to restore relations with Iran and energise ties with African Nile-Basin countries such as Ethiopia, Sudan and Uganda. Foreign Minister Nabil El-Arabi is meeting with his Iranian counterpart Ali Akbar Salehi at the meeting of Non-Aligned Movement countries in Indonesia at the end of this month, and delegations from Egypt have visited Uganda, Ethiopia and Sudan, restoring warm relations with these countries and helping to ensure that reforms to Nile water agreements will not be at the expense of Egypt. However, the greatest achievement of all in foreign affairs has been the long-awaited reconciliation agreement between the Palestinian factions of Hamas and Fatah on 3 May. As a result of this and other agreements, Arab states believe that Egypt is now poised to regain its strategic leadership of the region. Yet, 100 days after the January Revolution there have also been less-welcome developments, at the top of which have been the escalation in incidents of sectarian strife. These have led some analysts and religious moderates to express fears that the revolution could fall prey to Islamist fanatics or encounter stumbling blocks on the way towards a smooth democratic transition. According to Gamal Zahran, a professor of political science at Suez Canal University and a former independent MP, the country's Islamist movements, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood, have been among the greatest beneficiaries of the revolution. The constitutional amendments served the Islamist movements, he says, and could result in their gaining power. "We urged the ruling Higher Council of the Armed Forces not to hold parliamentary elections too soon, in order to allow liberal and leftist political forces to compete effectively with the Islamists," Zahran said, noting that the Muslim Brotherhood had been able to buy a building to house its political wing, the newly formed Freedom and Justice Party, and to collect more than the 5,000 signatures required for the party to be licensed. "This comes at a time when many liberal activists lack the financial and political capacity to set up their own parties ahead of the parliamentary elections," Zahran said. "As a result, we could see the next parliament dominated by Islamists belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood and other groups such as the Salafis and Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya." Zahran said that the newly amended political parties law had made it cumbersome for some political forces to set up their own parties. "The law, announced by the army on 28 March, is worse than the one instituted by the Mubarak regime, since it demands that 5,000 signatures be collected from different governorates and that these be registered with public notaries and published in two national newspapers." The youth coalition that led the January Revolution has also voiced sharp criticism of the army, accusing its leaders of imposing decisions on the nation without consulting the various political forces. "They rejected the idea of putting a presidential council in power instead of a military junta, and they took us aback by announcing amendments to the constitution and the political parties law," said coalition member Nasser Abdel-Hamid. "The same thing is expected to be true about the amendments to the exercise of political rights law, which will regulate the parliamentary elections scheduled for next September." Fears of Egypt turning into a state run by religious parties have been heightened by the rise of the Salafist elements and their clashes with Copts on 7 May. The Salafis organised protests in front of the Coptic Cathedral and US embassy in Cairo, protesting against the US killing of Osama bin Laden and demanding the release of Coptic women rumoured to have converted to Islam. "In spite of their small numbers, the Salafis have become a headache, and they could even drive the country into a Lebanese-style scenario of sectarian strife," warned Zahran. "These Islamist forces are now reaping the benefits of freedoms made available by the revolution, though they played no role in it." Other analysts stress that the revolution is under threat from a continuing lack of security in the country and economic paralysis. "It is true that the State Security apparatus has been dismantled, but the fact remains that this has given rise to a security vacuum," said Amr El-Shobaki, a political analyst at Al-Ahram. El-Shobaki added that this had "opened the door wide to thuggery and mob incidents, the last of which was the clash in Imbaba. Some people now believe that freedom means the ability to take the law into your own hands, which is a huge threat to the revolution and political stability. The military council should use an iron fist to stem the tide of chaos until the security apparatus can be restructured." El-Shobaki pointed with particular concern to protests in the Upper-Egyptian governorate of Qena, where sit-ins had obstructed trains running between Cairo and Upper-Egyptian cities. "They had a right to object to the appointment of a Copt as the new governor, but these protests are a dangerous development, as people have taken the law into their own hands," Meanwhile, the revolution has also given rise to significant economic losses. Egyptian foreign- exchange reserves fell from $36 billion in January to $28 billion at the end of April, according to the country's Central Bank, being a loss of $8 billion over four months. "This has been due to a large drop in receipts from tourism, as well as in remittances from Egyptians working abroad," said an expert from the bank. Egypt's economy contracted by seven per cent in the first quarter of 2011, while exports decreased by 40 per cent and tourism lost some $1 billion a month. "Although the counter-revolutionary forces have been eradicated, it remains to be seen how the Islamist forces can be dealt with and how security and economic growth can be brought about," El-Shobaki said. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Timeline The key moments of a people's uprising that changed Egypt forever 25 January: Around 70,000 young men and women gather in different streets of Cairo on Police Day to protest against the political and economic policies of the regime of Hosni Mubarak. The protests continue on 26 January. 27 January: Safwat El-Sherif, secretary-general and leader of the old guard of Mubarak's ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), takes the government of prime minister Ahmed Nazif to task for failing to meet the social and economic needs of the poor and limited-income classes. El-Sherif strongly denies that any senior NDP officials have fled the country. 28 January: Millions of protesters organise the Friday of Anger in different cities of Egypt, with groups of people facing tear gas and bullets from Central Security Forces. Mobs torch the headquarters of the NDP in Cairo and 100 of its offices across Egypt. A large number of police stations are also burned to the ground. Security forces withdraw from streets at 5pm to give room for army units to be deployed. A curfew is imposed from 3pm to 7am. Hosni Mubarak gives a speech at night, deciding to fire Nazif's government. 29 January: Ahmed Ezz, the NDP's secretary for organisational affairs and a business associate of Mubarak's son and heir apparent, Gamal, is forced to resign in a bid to contain the anger of the people. Mubarak appoints General Intelligence Chief Oman Suleiman vice president. Internet connections are cut. Thousands decide to organise a sit-in in downtown Cairo's Tahrir Square. 30 January: Mubarak appoints Ahmed Shafik, a former minister of civil aviation, as prime minister. 31 January: The formation of Shafik's government is completed. 1 February: Mubarak gives a speech at night, announcing that he was not intending to run for a sixth term in presidential elections that were scheduled for September. Mubarak wins some sympathy and thousands of his supporters gather at Mustafa Mahmoud Mosque in Giza. 2 February: Thousands of thugs on camels and horses storm Tahrir Square to drive pro-democracy protesters out, some wielding swords, cudgels and Molotov cocktails. The "Battle of the Camel" becomes a turning point against Mubarak. New numbers across the country are enraged, and sympathy for the embattled president dwindles. 3 February: A national dialogue is launched between vice president Suleiman and political parties. Ezz, former minister of housing Ahmed El-Maghrabi, former minister of tourism Zoheir Garana and former interior minister Habib El-Adli are banned from travelling abroad. Their assets are also frozen. 4 February: The Friday of Departure is organised. Former minister of trade and industry Rachid Mohamed Rachid is also banned from travel and his assets are frozen. 5 February: The six-member Executive Office of Mubarak's NDP resigns, including Gamal Mubarak. Attackers bomb the gas pipeline between Egypt and Israel. Mubarak holds a mini-cabinet meeting. 6 February: The People's Assembly adjourns its sessions. 7 February: The newly appointed government of Ahmed Shafik holds its first meeting. Former minister of tourism El-Maghrabi is questioned by general prosecution authorities on corruption charges. 8 February: Mubarak announces that three committees will be formed to propose constitutional reforms and investigate attacks on Tahrir Square protesters on 2 February. Mubarak meets with the foreign minister of the United Arab Emirates. 9 February: A committee proposes amending six articles of the constitution. Protesters move to the streets surrounding the parliament building, imposing a siege on the People's Assembly and Shura Council. 10 February: Mubarak gives a speech, refusing to leave office. The Higher Council of the Armed Forces (HCAF) is mobilised, deciding to remain in a permanent state of session. Protesters react with fury after Mubarak's speech, threatening to march on the presidential palace in Heliopolis and state TV headquarters on the Nile Corniche. 11 February: "The Friday of Defiance" is organised and Suleiman announces in a 30-second televised speech that Hosni Mubarak has decided to step down. The HCAF takes over and waves of joy and euphoria erupt in the streets of Cairo and other cities. 12 February: In a fourth statement, the HCAF vows to respect all international and regional agreements. Former prime minister Ahmed Nazif is banned from travel. 13 February: The HCAF dissolves parliament and revokes the 1971 constitution. 15 February: The HCAF forms a committee tasked with amending eight articles of the constitution. 17 February: Former ministers El-Adli, Garana, El-Maghrabi and businessman Ezz are detained. 18 February: A Friday of Victory is organised in Tahrir Square. 21 February: British Prime Minister David Cameron visits Cairo. The supreme guide of the Muslim Brotherhood announces that a political party by the name of "Freedom and Justice" will be founded. Former ministers El-Adli and Garana are referred to trial on corruption charges. 22 February: The interim government of Ahmed Shafik is reformulated, including 11 new ministers. Catherine Ashton, the European Union's commissioner on foreign relations, visits Cairo. 25 February: The Friday of Salvation is organised in Tahrir Square. The Ministry of Justice's Illicit Gains Office begins questioning Mubarak's long- serving chief of staff, Zakaria Azmi. 26 February: The new constitutional amendments are announced, reinstating full judicial supervision on elections, limiting presidential terms to eight years maximum, and softening terms on presidential bids. 27 February: The trial of former interior minister Habib El-Adli on the killing of protesters at Tahrir Square begins. 28 February: The prosecutor- general orders that Mubarak and his family be banned from travel and that their assets be frozen. 3 March: The interim government of Ahmed Shafik is forced to resign. Essam Sharaf, a former minister of transport, is selected as prime minister of a caretaker government. Turkish President Abdullah Gul visits Cairo. 4 March: Sharaf attends a large demonstration in Tahrir Square, stressing that his legitimacy stems from the revolution. The HCAF announces that constitutional amendments will be put to a vote on 19 March. 5 March: Thousands of protesters storm the headquarters of State Security Intelligence (SSI) offices across Egypt. Mansour El-Eissawi is appointed as the new minister of interior. 7 March: The government of Essam Sharaf is sworn in. 8 March: Hassan Abdel-Rahman, the former SSI chief, is detained. 10 March: Thousands resign from the NDP. 12 March: As many as 21 famous businessmen are forced to resign from office and four members of the NDP's Executive Office, including Gamal Mubarak, also resign. The killers of late president Anwar El-Sadat, Abboud and Tarek El-Zommor, are released from prison. 15 March: The SSI apparatus is dissolved. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits Cairo and walks in Tahrir Square. 19 March: A referendum on proposed constitutional amendments is held. 20 March: As much as 77.2 per cent vote "Yes" in favour of the proposed constitutional amendments. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon visits Cairo. 22 March: Mubarak is accused of embezzling money allocated to the Bibliotheca Alexandrina. 23 March: US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates visits Cairo. 24 March: Prime Minister Sharaf begins a visit to Sudan. 28 March: The curfew is shortened to just three hours, from 2am to 5am. A new law regulating political parties is announced. 30 March: The HCAF announces a constitutional declaration to regulate the political affairs of Egypt until a new president and parliament are elected. A number of editors of state-owned newspapers and magazines are fired. 31 March: The Mubarak regime's longest-serving officials are banned from travelling and their assets are frozen: Fathi Sorour, the former speaker of the People's Assembly, Safwat El-Sherif, former chairman of Shura Council, and Zakaria Azmi, former chief of presidential staff. 1 April: A Friday of Salvation is organised at Tahrir Square to urge the HCAF to arrest corrupt officials. 2 April: The HCAF vows to prosecute corrupt officials. 7 April: Mubarak's chief of presidential staff is detained for 15 days. 8 April: The Friday of Trial and Cleansing is organised to exert pressure on the HCAF to put Mubarak and his family on trial. 10 April: Mubarak gives a televised speech via the Saudi-funded satellite channel Al-Arabiya. The prosecutor- general orders that Mubarak and his two sons be summoned to face questioning on corruption charges. Businessman Ibrahim Kamel, one of Gamal Mubarak's associates, is imprisoned for 15 days. 11 April: Safwat El-Sherif, the NDP's former secretary-general and chairman of the Shura Council, is detained for 15 days. 12 April: Hosni Mubarak is questioned for a brief half hour and then moved to Sharm El-Sheikh International Hospital after complaining of health problems. 13 April: Mubarak's two sons, Gamal and Alaa, are detained in Tora prison south of Cairo for 15 days pending investigation into corruption charges. Former speaker of the People's Assembly Fathi Sorour is also detained for 15 days. 16 April: The Supreme Administrative Court orders that Mubarak's ruling National Democratic Party be dissolved. 17 April: Alaa and Gamal Mubarak are questioned by prosecution authorities. Former prime minister Ahmed Nazif, former minister of finance Youssef Boutros Ghali and former minister of interior Habib El-Adli are referred to trial on corruption charges. 21 April: A court orders that public buildings -- including schools, metro stations and factories -- should no longer bear the name of Mubarak or any of his family members. Islamists organise a demonstration in front of the US embassy in Cairo, asking the United States to release Sheikh Omar Abdel-Rahman, leader of Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya. 22 April: After being questioned again for three hours, Mubarak is detained for another 15 days. 23 April: Former minister of petroleum Sameh Fahmi and businessman Hussein Salem are referred to trial on the charge of profiteering from the sale of Egyptian natural gas to Israel at below market price. 24 April: The prosecutor-general probes the possibility of moving Mubarak from Sharm El-Sheikh to a military hospital. 25 April: Prime Minister Sharaf begins a tour of Arab Gulf countries. 26 April: The prosecution-general states that it is quite difficult to move Mubarak from Sharm El-Sheikh. 27 April: Saboteurs blow up the gas pipeline between Egypt and Israel. 28 April: The wives of Gamal and Alaa Mubarak face questioning on illicit gains. 30 April: The Muslim Brotherhood announces that it will compete for 45-50 per cent of the seats of the People's Assembly in the next parliamentary elections. 3 May: A reconciliation agreement between the two main Palestinian factions, Hamas and Fatah, is signed in Cairo. 5 May: A court orders that former Interior Minister Habib El-Adli is sentenced to 12 years in jail on the charge of money laundering.
