Iran is going into the new round of talks on its nuclear programme in Istanbul with considerable advantages, writes Amany Maged Opposition ministers withdrew from the Lebanese cabinet, which resulted in the collapse of the coalition government. Although they are all allies of Damascus, Syria stood back and watched events unfold without interfering; there were no official comments made on the resignations, and no Syrian official explained his country's official position regarding events in Beirut. The official media in Syria, however, only reported the position of Hizbullah and the leaders of the Lebanese opposition (the 8 March Alliance), completely ignoring the position of leaders and parties supporting the Lebanese government (the 14 March Alliance). The joint Syrian-Saudi Arabian mediation plan failed, although it was highly touted by all sides with a stake in Lebanese affairs. Damascus, however, did not admit its failure. It stood by the sidelines like an uninterested observer. Some Arab and European circles began to talk publicly about the beginning of a new phase of quarrels between Syria and Saudi Arabia and France, because the initiative was unsuccessful. Saudi Arabia, which played a major role in bringing Syria back to the Arab fold after years of isolation, announced the initiative's failure. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri blamed the opposition for the setback, saying: "They did not keep their promises." Damascus refused to respond. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who played a critical role in drawing Syria out of its international isolation, telephoned Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad twice, but no official Syrian media reported it. Syria could come out victorious if the Lebanese opposition is allowed to form a new government, but since the downfall of the government in Beirut, Syria faces two main obstacles regardless of whether the opposition controls the cabinet or not. First, strained relations with Saudi Arabia despite two years of amicable ties that are now predicted to become acrimonious; second, hesitation by France to continue its positive outlook towards Syria and instead taking a stance closer to the US's rigid posture towards Damascus. The manner by which Al-Hariri's government fell was an affront to him and who he represents, especially that he was informed of the resignations while on a visit to the US, and that the date for parliamentary consultations was set while he was in Paris. But this is the tip of the iceberg in the dispute between Damascus and Riyadh; Saudi Arabia received an indirect message from Syria that Lebanon was and will always be a critical for Syria and its allies, and that no compromises, manoeuvres or partnerships would be accepted but on Syria's terms. Statements from both Damascus and Riyadh in recent days confirm that the goodwill between the two since the Arab Economic Summit in Kuwait in 2009 has evaporated. What is left are accusations. The issue of Lebanon is the core of the dispute. In 2009, Assad promised to mediate with allies in Lebanon to pave the way for Saad Al-Hariri to form a government. But with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) preparing to issue indictments for the assassination of Rafik Al-Hariri that may accuse members of Hizbullah, tensions between the two sides reopened. The recent quarrel with France, on the other hand, began when Al-Assad went to France to discuss with Sarkozy the possibility of postponing the STL's indictments. Assad asked the French president to intercede and convince his Lebanese friends (Al-Hariri) to isolate the STL before the indictments were issued. Sarkozy was not able to do this, and reiterated Paris's commitment to the independence of the tribunal. In the same way as with Saudi Arabia, disputes between Syria and France erupted over Lebanon, specifically in 2004 -- a few months before Al-Hariri's assassination -- when Damascus decided to renew former Lebanese president Emile Lahoud's tenure and Paris backed a UN resolution calling for the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon. After the assassination, bilateral relations went into deep freeze mode. Two years ago, when France felt that Syria was playing a positive role in resolving the crisis of the Lebanese cabinet -- which was a precondition to normalising relations with Syria -- Paris turned over a new leaf with Damascus based on dialogue and consultations on a number of issues, especially Lebanon. Sarkozy told the US that he would be able to make the Syrians more flexible on Lebanon and other sensitive regional issues. Hours after his government collapsed, Saad Al-Hariri stopped over in Paris on his way back from New York. After meeting with Sarkozy, France proposed the formation of "an international contact group" on Lebanon to assist Beirut overcome the current political crisis arising from the fall of the government. The group would include France, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt and perhaps the US, with the possibility of others as well. The goal: to find solutions without Syria playing the only role. Meanwhile, French Foreign Minister Michele Alliot-Marie said that the STL is "an independent judicial entity created by the international community and no one can obstruct it." Alliot-Marie added: "We cannot juxtapose justice with stability; they are linked." She stated that France was committed to "a consistent and honest dialogue" with Syria. This is a different tone by France towards Syria; in the past it had insisted on having the best of relations with Damascus. But souring relations between Syria and Saudi Arabia and France does not mean that there will be a clash between Damascus and these capitals. No one can ignore France's role in Lebanon, or overlook Saudi Arabia's influence with principal political forces there. Syrian analysts argue that the failure to reach a settlement in Lebanon will leave its mark on Syrian-Saudi relations. "The [settlement] plan would have strengthened relations; its failure means that this improvement (with both Saudi Arabia and France) will be delayed," Fayez Sara, a political analyst, told Al-Ahram Weekly. Saudi Arabia and France want Syria to accept the findings of the STL and to convince its allies in Lebanon of this outcome, in return for ensuring stability in Lebanon once the STL indictments are released. But these terms are unacceptable to Syria and its allies in Lebanon. Some observers fear that as disputes escalate, Saudi Arabia and France will reassert their demands made years ago of demarcating the border between Syria and Lebanon. They could also call on Damascus to resolve the issue of Palestinians carrying arms outside refugee camps in Lebanon, reopen the issue of smuggling arms to Hizbullah, and push Syria back into isolation in the Arab and international arenas where it was confined for four years.
