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New foreign intelligence head in Tel Aviv
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 06 - 01 - 2011

As Meir Dagan ends his reign of assassinations and spy rings, Saleh Al-Naami reviews the priorities that will face the next head of Mossad
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu was excessive in praising the head of Mossad, Meir Dagan, during a cabinet meeting Sunday. Dagan, who had come to bid farewell to cabinet members at the end of his eight-year tenure, listened as ministers competed in praising his leadership and emphatically applauded Dagan at the end of the meeting. They said his work curtailed, to a large extent, the strategic dangers surrounding Israel.
While the ministers did not bring up any of the many stealth operations carried out by Mossad during Dagan's tenure, it is a long list indeed. In fact, Mossad was able to regain its stature in the eyes of Israeli public opinion and decision-makers in Tel Aviv, by resuming assassinations of the leaders of Palestinian resistance groups and Hizbullah, with successful hits such as the murder of Imad Mughniyeh, the director of Hizbullah's military operations.
Mossad was also key in providing intelligence to the Israeli Air Force to strike a research facility in northeast Syria, which Israel claimed to be a nascent nuclear facility. Meanwhile, many Israelis believe Dagan was behind the "success" in interceding in progress in Iran's nuclear programme by recruiting Iranian agents who gave Iran expired technology. The Iranian authorities have already executed one of these agents.
Mossad is also accredited with using viruses to corrupt computers in the centrifuge for enriching uranium, as well as mysterious bombings in different parts in Iran and assassinations of Iranian scientists involved in Tehran's nuclear programme. Dagan was also successful in laying down a new work ethic for Mossad, reforming and restructuring the agency, and expanding the use of advanced technology in operations. All this made Mossad more popular among other Israeli intelligence agencies, namely the domestic intelligence agency Shin Bet and military intelligence Aman.
Nonetheless, there is great disappointment regarding the large number of Mossad espionage cells that were uncovered in the Arab world, most recently the successful discovery by Egyptian intelligence and arrest of a spy who revealed top secret information about the circumstances of the strike against the Syrian nuclear facility at the end of 2006. He provided information about the Syrian officer who passed sensitive information to Mossad about the facility. But the most detrimental development for Mossad has been the fast paced exposure of a large number of spy networks in Lebanon, which Lebanese intelligence was able to uncover in cooperation with Hizbullah. Agents included politicians and senior officers who were spying on behalf of Israel.
Several Israeli espionage experts asserted that this was because of the hasty recruitment process that was introduced by Dagan when he took over Mossad in 2002. Dagan's critics say that until he became boss, the agency followed a slow gradual procedure for recruiting, but he changed this formula and adopted the quicker method used by Shin Bet. Accordingly, Tamir Pardo who was appointed by Netanyahu as Dagan's successor is likely to review the quick recruitment policy to prevent the exposure of more spy networks. Many feel that Pardo will learn the lessons of Dagan's tenure.
Dagan was a big advocate of political assassinations, although the primary role of Mossad is not to kill but rather to gather intelligence for Israeli decision-makers. Dagan's critics argue that his penchant for assassinations contradicted with the organisational structure of Mossad which allocates a relatively small budget for assassination operations. The Kidon Unit in the Operations Department is a comparably small unit, and is tiny compared to parallel units in the military and other intelligence agencies such as the Seyerat Metkal, the Dovidivan, the Yamam and others.
The biggest failure for Mossad was the assassination of Hamas leader Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh in Dubai in February 2010. Although the target was eliminated, the operation greatly harmed Israel politically and damaged its relations with many countries. More importantly, it revealed serious shortcomings in its operations, contrary to Mossad's reputation and image, when it came to light that Mossad had used passports that did not belong to Mossad.
Among Pardo's priorities will be to learn from Al-Mabhouh's assassination, and to review such assassinations in light of the agency's key responsibilities. This does not mean that under its new boss Mossad will not carry out assassinations. As a member and leader of the agency's operations unit, Pardo personally participated in many assassinations. But all signs indicate that he will cut down on the number of assassinations in order to prevent damaging relations with the world community, especially friendly countries.
At the same time, these operations follow Mossad priorities as outlined by consecutive Israeli governments. Confronting Iran's nuclear programme is a top priority for Mossad. Since 2006, the Israeli cabinet has given Mossad complete control over thwarting the Iranian nuclear programme, therefore continuing the "successes" of Dagan on this issue will be a priority for Pardo.
Only six hours before Netanyahu announced Pardo's appointment, an Iranian nuclear scientist was killed and another severely injured in two mysterious bombings, which many Zionist commentators saw as a reminder for Pardo that he would have to maintain this record.
But the role of Mossad chief is not only to provide intelligence and carry out operations. The briefs and recommendations he presents to the Israeli cabinet about Iran are also vital. This is especially important because of the sporadic debate inside Israel about Israel's actions towards Iran's nuclear programme. Some champion stealth operations by the Mossad to undermine the programme, while others demand a wide military operation to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities.
Dagan was an advocate of stealth operations, while those close to Pardo say he is more hardline on this issue and could choose the military option. But in the end, no one knows what Pardo will decide once he is in office.
Israelis believe that the Mossad chief has a challenging task ahead of him, namely to closely monitor developments in moderate Arab states whose stability Tel Aviv is unsure about. The agency provides decision-makers with an accurate picture about the future of Arab ruling regimes, especially now that Israel is worried "there are indicators that several of these regimes are unstable." Israelis are concerned about the future of Arab regimes surrounding Palestine, because Israel's strategic environment would change dramatically if there are any sudden upheavals in these states.
At the same time, Mossad is the only intelligence agency in Israel charged with handling jihadist movements around the world and the threat they represent to the Zionist state. This mostly means providing information about the goals of jihadist groups and thwarting their plans to harm Israel. Although operations by these groups against Israel are very limited, Israel is very worried about future developments in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq out of concern that the Taliban movement succeeds in forcing US forces out of Afghanistan. This would open up the arena for jihadist operations and transform the country into a launching pad for operations against Israeli and Jewish targets.
No doubt, one of the obstacles facing the new Mossad chief is the stability of the regime in Pakistan. Israeli officials openly express their concern that some people in Pakistan could provide jihadist groups with dirty bombs tainted with radioactive material, and some Israelis even believe these movements could acquire tactical nuclear weapons which Pakistan is seeking to manufacture.


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