As temperatures drop so swine flu cases rise, reports Reem Leila Swine flu is back. Between October and 20 December 533 cases were reported. During the second week of December alone 218 cases were recorded. The figures include 30 fatalities. Over the same period last year 10,599 cases were reported with 134 fatalities. Wagih Adli Michael is the most recent H1N1 fatality. He died on 17 December, his case complicated by a history of chest disease. Adli was preceded by 24- year-old Ali Sheasha from Gharbiya governorate who began displaying symptoms of H1N1 a few days before he died on 16 December. The virus also claimed the lives of a 40-year-old woman from North Sinai who was suffering from chronic chest complaints, a 25-day-newborn from Fayoum and 55-year-old diabetic Adli Faisal from Kafr Al-Sheikh governorate. All three died on 15 December. Abdel-Rahman Shahin, official spokesman for the Ministry of Heath, told Al-Ahram Weekly on Monday that the figure of 533 reported cases is unlikely to reflect the real total. "Many people might suffer from the virus without realising it. They will not have sought medical attention, and will have shaken off the symptoms with ordinary flu medicine." Clinical studies and surveillance conducted by the ministry show, says Shahin, that the H1N1 virus is spreading within the normal rate of seasonal flu. The last reported case of H1N1 during summer was on 26 June. The virus only started appearing again three months later. Seventy cases were reported late October and November and 75 cases during the first week of December. "As we enter the post-pandemic period this does not mean that the H1N1 virus has gone away," Shahin quoted the World Health Organisation's (WHO) Director-General Margaret Chan as saying. "Based on experience with past pandemics we expect the H1N1 virus to take on the behaviour of a seasonal influenza virus and continue to circulate for some years to come." Last week Shahin warned of an expected H1N1 outbreak in the next few months as temperatures continued to fall. The Ministry of Health advises citizens to consult a doctor when experiencing seasonal flu symptoms which include coughing, high fever and general fatigue. Children, the elderly, pregnant women and those suffering chronic diseases are advised to be extra vigilant. "Almost 94 per cent of fatalities involve patients with suffering chronic diseases. Such people must go immediately to hospital if they experience flu symptoms," says Shahin. Tamiflu is available for free in public hospitals and is being sold by pharmacies. The Health Ministry has announced it will not be implementing any exceptional measures to limit the spread of the virus though it has listed a number of precautionary measures that include regular cleaning of surfaces such as floors, proper ventilation in the workplace, public transport and at home, covering the nose and mouth while sneezing or coughing and avoiding crowded places. Shahin predicts the virus will peak in the last week of December, when the number of cases is expected to double, and then decline steadily.
