The Sudanese people are receding into the shadows of the south Sudan referendum as questions of wealth ownership and political interests drive the country towards partition, writes Nihad Fottouh The Sudan, that vast space of fertile land occupied by smiling dark faces who live a simple life, is about to change. Sudan is the largest country in Africa and the Arab world and the 10th largest country in the world by area. The Sudanese land is as diverse as its people but is united by the eternal flow of the Nile. Beside its fertile land, ready to be planted without any effort, crude oil and petroleum were discovered. Its land is still offering its riches that are discovered from day to day. Among these are natural gas, gold, silver, chromite, asbestos, manganese, gypsum, mica, zinc, iron, lead, uranium, copper, kaolin, cobalt, granite, nickel, tin, and aluminum. Despite US sanctions, the Sudanese economy is one of the fastest growing in the world according to a New York Times report of October 2006. The promise of prosperity is firm, yet its conflicts and prospective divisions weaken it. In 1955, a year before independence from Egypt, a civil war began between northern and southern Sudan. The southerners, anticipating independence, feared the new nation would be dominated by the north. Historically, the north of Sudan had closer ties with Egypt and was predominantly Arab and Muslim while the south was predominantly a mixture of Christianity and Animism. These divisions had been further emphasised by the British policy of ruling the north and south under separate administrations. From 1924, it was illegal for people living north of the 10th parallel to go further south and for people south of the 8th parallel to go further north. The law was ostensibly enacted to prevent the spread of malaria and other tropical diseases that had ravaged British troops, as well as to facilitate spreading Christianity among the predominantly Animist population while stopping the Arabic and Islamic influence from advancing south. The result was increased isolation between the already distinct north and south and arguably laid the seeds of conflict in the years to come. Just as the long north-south civil war was reaching a resolution, clashes occurred in the western region of Darfur in the early 1970s between the pastoral tribes. The rebels accused the central government of neglecting the Darfur region economically, although there is uncertainty regarding the objectives of the rebels and whether they merely seek an improved position for Darfur within Sudan or outright secession. Both the government and the rebels have been accused of atrocities in this war, although most of the blame has fallen on Arab militias known as the Janjaweed, which are armed men appointed by Sadeg Al-Mahdi administration to stop the longstanding chaotic disputes between Darfur tribes. According to declarations by the US government, these militias have been engaging in genocide; the fighting has displaced hundreds of thousands of people, many of them seeking refuge in neighbouring Chad. The government claimed victory over the rebels after capturing a town on the border with Chad in early 1994. However, the fighting resumed in 2003 and many were killed or fled to nearby states. The conflict was declared the worse genocide in the 21st century. Pressure from the international community and countries with an interest in Sudan pushed for the enactment of the Sudanese referendum. The international community turned a blind eye to the unrealistic electoral fortunes of President Omar Al-Bashir in exchange for this awaited referendum. The prerequisites for the referendum included a census, which will define how wealth and political power will be apportioned between regions. The census would thus be the basis of a voter registration process, which would allow for national elections in 2010, which would in turn set the stage for the referendum. As of early 2008, the census had been delayed three times. Problems included disagreements between the north and south over what they are obliged to do under the Naivasha Agreement, funding difficulties, and an enormous logistical challenge. In the south, unmapped minefields from the war make movement difficult, while up to five million Sudanese are nomadic. Up to two million internally displaced persons from the south remain in camps around Khartoum, in the centre of the country, while refugees remain in Uganda and Kenya. A further complication results from the conflict in Darfur to the west, where civilians who fled attacks refused to take part in the census out of fear that the government would use the results against them. Darfuri rebel groups were unanimous in their denunciation of the census, while the Justice and Equality Movement group threatened to attack any census-taker. There are disagreements between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) about what proportion of voters will have to be in favour of independence (the NCP wants at least 75 per cent support required) for secession to follow, on whether southern Sudanese living in the north should be allowed to vote, and the post-referendum separation process (including the division of national debt) if secession is chosen. Modest progress was made in early September 2010, but disagreements on fundamental points remain. It is envisaged to hold "popular consultations" in South Kordofan and the Blue Nile, without a clear reference to referenda and/or independence, raising concerns about the future of these regions. In October 2009, the central government of Sudan and the South Sudanese government agreed that turnout would have to be 60 per cent for the vote to be valid, and that as long as turnout is 60 per cent or higher, a simple majority vote in favour of independence would result in independence for South Sudan. The proposed date for the referendum is 9 January 2011. Should the turnout be insufficient, a second referendum will be held within 60 days. But what about the Sudanese? Do they want a separated Sudan? Do they want two independent states? Do they want scattered wealth? Many of those who fled the south during the civil war started to return, with some southern politicians trying to have them play a role in swinging the vote towards Southern Sudanese independence. An Egyptian proposal was made to have a confederation between the north and south of Sudan. However, President Al-Bashir said it was not being considered, because the issue of the referendum was about "unity of separation". "Our brothers in the south are refusing at the moment the proposal of confederation." If separation was the result of the referendum, the two sides are going to negotiate over the future of relations between them. Sudanese officials have said throughout their campaigns, regardless of their pro-unity or pro-separatist stance, that the ultimate aim is a peaceful transition for the fragile nation. Vice President Kiir acknowledged his administration had failed to deliver "the dividends of peace", and noted that a campaign to confiscate arms was a solution to maintaining stability. Negotiations continue between the ruling parties in the north and south on potential post-referendum arrangements, looking at future issues such as citizenship, security, finance and wealth sharing. Minister of Petroleum Lual Deng said he fears that an immediate budget cut for the north would ignite a war. "In order to avoid conflict, we could look to a phase-out arrangement whereby you provide the north some [oil] until they get an alternative." National campaigns are being held by both parties to address issues of potential clashes ahead of the referendum. President Al-Bashir wanted to reassure and assuage tension surrounding the issue of citizenship rights in the case of south Sudan secession. He said that even if southerners opted for secession, "the sentimental unity and social relations between north and south Sudan will remain standing." So the north and the south will keep relations but in separation, according to officials. But is that what the simple smiling faces of Sudan want? Will the voices of the Sudanese people matter? Will it be a real referendum that takes the people into account, or will it be a referendum that takes the interests of Sudanese wealth into account? The coming days will reveal all -- days long for those anticipating independence, and short for those anticipating violence. Let's hope Sudan finds peace not tears.
