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Ankara's war drums beat softer
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 15 - 10 - 1998


By Amberin Zaman
Cairo's shuttle diplomacy between Damascus and Ankara, aimed at heading off a military confrontation between the two neighbours, this week appeared to be bearing fruit.
Turkish President Suleyman Demirel described a message from Syrian leader Hafez Al-Assad as "worth examining very carefully". It was delivered on Monday by Egyptian Foreign Minister Amr Moussa.
"Syria told Egypt that it would be taking the necessary steps to address our concerns relating to the terrorist organisation," Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem told reporters. He was referring to the outlawed separatist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which, Turkey alleges, is provided with arms and bases by Syria. Damascus continues to deny the accusations.
According to the Turkish media, Syria's indication, through the message conveyed by Moussa, that it was willing to discuss "security matters" was effectively an acknowledgment of its backing for the Kurdish guerrillas.
Moreover, Damascus had reportedly pledged not to allow the PKK to operate out of its territory and to extradite its leader Abdullah Ocalan, whom Ankara insists lives in Damascus. The liberal daily Milliyet said Ocalan had already been booted out by the Syrian authorities and left for either Libya, Armenia or Greece.
Turkish authorities, however, do not quite share Syria's optimism and continue to deliver veiled threats to use military force against Damascus. Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz is certainly in no hurry to end the war of words with Syria, which has conveniently overshadowed a slew of allegations concerning his government's links with mafia bosses.
According to Hasan Koni, a leading expert on Middle Eastern affairs, Turkey's threats to use force are not directed at Syria alone. He said Ankara is still furious over a US-brokered agreement between the two rival Iraqi Kurdish leaders. The agreement, signed in Washington last month, called for the establishment of a "Kurdish federal administration" next year. "The message from Ankara is that it will use force against anyone who either encourages or is directly involved in the establishment of a Kurdish state," Koni said. "They, for obvious reasons, could not confront the Americans directly, so they focused on Syria."
In its reply to the Syrian peace overture, delivered by Moussa to Damascus, Ankara said a monitoring mechanism should be established in order to satisfy Turkish public opinion that Syria was living up to its commitment to keep the PKK out.
Apparently, Egypt's reported offer to act as a guarantor was not enough to allay Turkey's suspicions. Ankara insisted on a mechanism that would enable its authorities to monitor the situation themselves.
Should Damascus give in to these demands then in all likelihood, Cem and Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Al-Sharaa would meet, most probably in Cairo, to resume the interrupted dialogue.
What the Turkish authorities have not revealed, however, is what conditions, if any, Syria wishes to impose in return for its crack-down on the PKK.
Analysts say it is highly unlikely that Assad will come away empty-handed from his latest sparring match with Ankara. Syria's highest bargaining chip appears to be water. Damascus is expected to insist that Turkey signs an agreement allocating it a fixed share of water from the Euphrates, on which Syrian farming and hydro-energy depend. Ankara continues to reject those demands, saying it releases more than enough water downstream.
As long as the deadlock over the water issue persists, it would be premature to speak of any meaningful resolution of Turkey's long-standing differences with its Arab neighbour. The potential for conflict remains.
Meanwhile, as the Turkish media were busy with reports on the dispute with Syria, another confrontation took place on Sunday between the army-backed Turkish secular government and the Islamist opposition. Nearly 800 pro-Islamist demonstrators, including 140 women, were detained after taking part in protests staged against the ban on the hejab (head scarfs) in state institutions and universities. Four Islamist journalists accused of inciting the protests were also detained. Nearly 40,000 people took part in the nation-wide protest.
It was the second mass demonstration by Turkey's pro-Islamists in two weeks. Thousands of people had earlier taken to the streets of several Turkish cities to protest a court ruling ordering the imprisonment of the charismatic Istanbul Mayor Recep Tayyip Erdogan. An appeals court upheld a 10-month jail term against Erdogan for allegedly inciting his supporters to violence by quoting an extract from a famous Turkish poem saying: "Minarets are our bayonets, domes are our helmets, mosques our barracks and believers are our soldiers."
Related:
Damascus stresses dialogue


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