Dealing differently with Lebanon

By Ranwa Yehia
Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad's decision last week to release all Lebanese prisoners and detainees in Syria was welcomed in Lebanon as a sign of improved Lebanese-Syrian relations.
Al-Assad's decision comes after four months of increasingly active internal debate among Lebanon's Christian community, who have been demanding the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon.
While some analysts regard the Syrian decision as a ploy to deflate calls by Maronite clerics for less Syrian involvement in internal Lebanese issues, others believe it is still a positive sign that would slowly, but eventually, lead to better Lebanese-Syrian ties.
Editor of the pro-Syrian As-Safir newspaper, Faisal Salman, believes Syria's "studied" decision came as a result of its "deep understanding of the Lebanese political make-up."
He told Al-Ahram Weekly that Syria made the decision following increasing calls by Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Nasrallah Butros Sfeir for the withdrawal of Syrian troops.
"Syria has removed one element that could be used to pressure it and force it to withdraw or redeploy in Lebanon," Salman said.
However, he said he doubted that Sfeir would stop his calls for a Syrian withdrawal following Al-Assad's decision.
"The decision to release the Lebanese could deflate heightened emotion from the humanitarian point of view, but, politically, it would be difficult to stop," Salman said.
One of the most outspoken Lebanese regarding the highly sensitive issue of Syrian presence in Lebanon, Sfeir is always calling, sometimes in fiery speeches, for the withdrawal of Syrian troops during his weekly Sunday sermons.
What Salman finds ironic about the situation is the fact that at least 80 per cent of the Lebanese expected to be released are Muslims.
The prisoners, whose number is estimated at 45, are expected to be released before Christmas and Eid Al-Fitr.
"There is such a contradiction when you see only the Christians calling for the release of prisoners in Syria and most turn out to be Muslims," he said.
Salman quoted a joke that has spread around the country about how the Christians rejected the release after finding out that most prisoners were Muslims. He claimed that "this crude joke is an accurate description of the situation in the country."
Salman believes that even after Al-Assad's decision, Sfeir and other rightist Christians will not stop their demands for the withdrawal of Syrian troops because their call is "political."
"The Syrians regard their move [the release] as a positive, albeit much delayed, step and they will score a point against their political rivals in Lebanon," he said.
Syria believes these calls (for withdrawal) are part of a plan coordinated with the United States, the Vatican and Europe to exert pressure on Syria, according to Salman.
Another factor behind Syria's decision is to send a message to the world that it recognises the humanitarian elements of its involvement in Lebanese politics.
Analyst Nabil Bou Monsef, who is familiar with the Christian scene, said he was optimistic about the release decision.
"I see the move as being in line with a more open Syrian policy toward Lebanon. The issue of Lebanese detainees is a significant factor in Lebanese-Syrian relations," he said.
Bou Monsef said Al-Assad's decision was important because it represented "the first Syrian admission that they have Lebanese detainees and this reflects their awareness that they have to deal with the Lebanese differently from now on."
The release of prisoners holds important weight internationally, particularly on the level of international human rights organisations, which will undoubtedly see Syria's move as a positive step, he added.
Bou Monsef said he had to admit that "some Lebanese groups were concerned that the Syrian decision was aimed at deflating the calls for Syrian withdrawal."
"Whether the Syrians have the intention to leave or not, they know by now that they can't use this deflation strategy," he said.
One proof of that, according to Bou Monsef, is the reaction following the announcement of the news.
The Council of Maronite Bishops was the first to respond, welcoming the decision but reminding of other equally significant issues Syria has yet to resolve.
"It is obvious that Cardinal Sfeir is still voicing calls for the withdrawal of Syrian troops, but in a less provocative way. From my interpretation of the Patriarch's action, I see that he is behaving in this way because he has been given Syrian reassurances that these issues will slowly but surely be resolved," Bou Monsef said.
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