Pounding Arab expectations

By Dina Ezzat
Iraq is expected to be the most difficult item on US Secretary of State Colin Powell's agenda during his upcoming talks in the region. The strikes carried out Friday by the US and UK against Iraqi targets in the southern suburbs of Baghdad are bound to cloud discussions between Powell and Arab officials on the Iraqi issue.
"We cannot condone the strikes against Iraq," Egyptian Foreign Minister Amr Moussa said on Saturday. "This is a very negative move that harms the safety and territorial integrity of Iraq," he added.
Similar statements were made by other Arab officials condemning the attack. Some were more harshly worded. "The strikes against Iraq are an act of brutal aggression," Damascus said. Others were milder in tone. "The strikes are a terribly saddening development," according to Doha.
Only Riyadh and Kuwait -- the two capitals that were reported to have offered facilities for US and British warplanes that carried out the raid -- kept their silence.
This division in official Arab postures towards Iraq could make it easier for Powell to avoid serious talk about an immediate easing of anti-Iraq sanctions .
The US secretary is expected to arrive in the region on Saturday for a visit that will start in Cairo and then take him to Riyadh, Kuwait, Amman, Tel Aviv, Gaza and Damascus. At each stop, Powell -- the former army general who led military action against Iraq in 1991 -- will discuss Iraq.
It is not yet clear what message Washington intended to send to the Middle East by launching airstrikes only a week before the US Secretary of State arrives in the region. Diplomatic sources who know both Powell and US Vice-President Dick Cheney suggest that there may be an internal division in US policy-making on Iraq. "It may well be that Cheney was making sure that Powell would not arrive in the Middle East and start talking with Arab leaders about any potential lifting of anti-Iraq sanctions since this is not something that Cheney would accept," commented one diplomat. He added, "If this is the case then we will be faced with one of the most complicated situations: a US administration that is not dealing with Iraq in one voice and an internal US battle between a strong vice-president and the state department."
Other diplomats interpreted the Friday attack as a clear American warning to the Arab world about how far the White House is prepared to go on the Iraqi problem. "It may well be that Washington is telling Arab capitals that want anti-Iraq sanctions removed need to greatly reduce their expectations, at least at this stage," commented another diplomat.
Irrespective of the US rationale for the strikes, Powell should be prepared for complaints, particularly in Cairo.
"It has been ten long years since the beginning of this Iraq-Kuwait issue. It is inevitable today that many of the measures that were adopted during the past years be revisited," commented Foreign Minister Moussa.
Egypt is not alone in this sentiment. Arab League sources speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly on condition of anonymity say that most Arab governments are faced with the problem of explaining to their populations why the Iraqi people need to put up with "more of this horrible humanitarian suffering." One source said, "There is growing pressure on Arab governments from the street, even in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, to move towards alleviating the misery of the Iraqi people."
The new US administration will insist on refusing to deal with the current Iraqi regime while many countries in the region are learning to tolerate it. According to Arab diplomats, the US will in any case have to take steps towards reducing the magnitude of the human suffering in Iraq. "If it chooses otherwise, it will cause US friendly regimes great embarrassment," commented one Arab diplomat.
According to US Ambassador in Egypt Daniel Kurtzer, the new US administration is trying "to engage in intensive discussion [with its regional allies] on what needs to be done with Iraq."
Diplomatic sources suggest that Washington will decide sooner rather than later to show the flexibility required to ease the suffering of the Iraqi people. "It is too early to tell what exactly Washington would be willing to do to realise this objective but for sure it will have to do something. And the Friday strikes do not mean that the decision-makers in the White House and the State Department are not aware that unless something is done their regional allies will be faced with internal stability worries," said one Egyptian diplomatic source.
Hani Riyad, Egypt's permanent representative to the Arab League, said, "Ultimately a common stand will be reached on this matter in the next Arab summit scheduled to take place late next month in Amman."
According to Riyad, the Arab public anger that resulted from the Friday strikes will make it even more pressing for the Amman summit to reach a formula to help the Iraqi people, possibly through economic measures. This formula, Riyad admits, will not necessarily include the full normalisation of relations with the Baghdad regime. This, he argued, is a longer term objective.
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