US softening on Sudan?

Oil may lead to an about-face in US policy towards Sudan -- especially during a Texas oilman's presidency, writes Gamal Nkrumah
The United States, the largest donor to relief operations in Sudan, is being urged to use its clout to secure a political settlement to the Sudanese political crisis. Since 1983, the US has spent over $1.5 billion in humanitarian aid to Sudan -- mostly in the war-torn southern third of the vast country, Africa's largest. Humanitarian agencies, human rights groups and influential US politicians are all calling on Washington to influence the course of events in Sudan.
The vociferous nature and timing of these calls have fuelled rumours that US President George W Bush, egged on by his Africa advisers and oil interests, is about to radically change Washington's Sudan policy. "There is no greater tragedy on the face of the earth today than the tragedy that is unfolding in Sudan," said US Secretary of State Colin Powell at a congressional international relations committee hearing last week. Powell pledged to end the Sudanese conflict which, he said, "will be a top priority" of the Bush administration's foreign policy. A rapprochement between Washington and Khartoum may be in the offing. Sudanese Foreign Minister Mustafa Othman Ismail recently held "secret talks" with a US fact-finding delegation, which also met with Sudanese opposition figures.
In this context, the recommendations of recently-released reports, arguing for a more assertive US role in Sudanese politics, caused ripple effects in Sudanese government and opposition circles. First, the Washington-based, independent Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) urged the US government in a report to organise a new peace initiative in Sudan with the help of other Western nations, most notably Britain and Norway. "Now is an opportune and appropriate moment for the US to join actively in a strong multilateral push, in collaboration with interested European powers, to end Sudan's internal war," stated the report.
Conspicuously absent from the report's proposals were potential contributions by countries geographically and culturally close to Sudan, such as Egypt, Libya, Ethiopia and other Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) countries in East Africa.
The CSIS task force on US-Sudan policy was funded by the US Institute of Peace and co-chaired by Francis Deng, of City University of New York, and Stephen Morrison, director of the CSIS programme. Deng, a distinguished academic and influential southern Sudanese political figure, has long been a leading champion of the southern Sudanese cause in Western circles.
The CSIS report's recommendations, if taken up by Washington, could lead to a radical departure from the hitherto bellicose US attitude towards Sudan, a country put under US sanctions since 1997. Sudan is among a handful of so-called "rogue" or "pariah" states that the US accuses of sponsoring international terrorism, an allegation which led former US President Bill Clinton to freeze Sudanese assets in the US and bar most American trade and investments in Sudan.
While cautiously welcomed by the Sudanese government, opposition parties were alarmed by the CSIS recommendations. The Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), the most powerful armed opposition group, voiced grave reservations. "It is difficult to see how a US policy that offers carrots to the villains and sticks to the victims can achieve these objectives," SPLA leader Dr John Garang told Al-Ahram Weekly. "Normalisation of diplomatic and economic relations with Khartoum would be a reward for its deception. They will have manoeuvred their acceptance in the international community and gained the freedom to misgovern Sudan," he said. "The Bush administration should not be advised to adopt policies of appeasement towards the regime," Garang urged.
The CSIS report hinted that increased oil production is tilting the balance of power in favour of the Sudanese government. In any case, the new-found oil wealth has intensified intra-southern Sudanese rivalries in and around prospective oil fields. Fighting has flared between rival Nuer and Dinka people in Bentui, the main oil-producing region in southern Sudan. On 12 March, US-based Human Rights Watch (HRW) released a report urging that all US military aid to anti-government southern Sudanese be severed. "The US has tremendous clout with southerners. Now is the time to use it," an HRW official explained.
Sudan began exporting oil in 1999 and oil revenues are expected to top the $400 million mark by the end of the year. Most of these proceeds are used to fund the war effort. The British charity Christian Aid recently released a report warning that Sudanese government forces and allied militias are systematically killing tens of thousands of southern Sudanese civilians in a deliberate attempt to depopulate oil-producing areas of southern Sudan. Some 48 villages are said to have been wiped out and 55,000 people displaced. Christian Aid insists that Western oil companies like oil giants British Petroleum, Royal Dutch-Shell, Chevron and Exxon-Mobil have major leverage with Khartoum. The Western oil giants are investors in the subsidiaries of the Chinese oil companies PetroChina and Sinopec, Malaysia's Petronas and other oil firms which oversee oil exploration and production in Sudan. Observers believe that the Texan president with his interest in oil is cynically manoeuvring an about-turn in the US's Sudan policy to better exploit Sudan's rich oil deposits.
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