Electing to pass?

Arrests, intimidation and awkward silences in Iran, as President Khatami wonders whether to run again. Azadeh Moaveni observes the pre-election tensions in Tehran
Round-ups of opposition activists are commonplace news in Tehran, as familiar to the public's ears as an increase in the price of milk, or the vanishing of a favourite newspaper. The hardline-dominated judiciary has steadily imprisoned any politically active supporter of President Mohamed Khatami over the past two years, from quiet publishers to student leaders.
But the arrest of 42 dissidents two weeks ago was a more aggressive slam than usual. That the "activists" were mostly old men, including distinguished former ministers, university chancellors and governors, was a sign to reformists that no threat to the system, however legal or mild, would be tolerated. Coming a scant three weeks before the legal deadline for Khatami to announce his candidacy, the arrests are seen as an attempt to dissuade the president from running for re-election in June.
The dissidents were all members of the banned but long-tolerated Freedom Movement, a religious political movement premised on nationalism. Head of the Tehran Revolutionary Court Ali Mobasheri said on state radio that the arrests were intended "to confront those who are trying to overthrow the establishment." When agents arrived at the house of former Minister Seyed Ahmad Sadr Hajseyed Javadi, an ailing 84 year old, they also took the law scholar's valuable legal archive. Behind bars in secret locations, many of the arrested have been denied visits by family or lawyers.
The Revolutionary Court authorised the arrests last month, when it re-banned the Freedom Movement. This happened despite a recent internal investigation by the Intelligence Ministry which, according to a reformist source, had recently found the Movement "not a threat to the system." And Intelligence Minister Ali Yunesi told parliament last week he had no evidence linking the arrested to anti-regime plots. But intelligence agents did not carry out the arrests; the special intelligence unit of the hardline-dominated judiciary conducted the round-up itself. The judiciary complained about Yunesi's remarks, claiming he had no access to the incriminating information that implicated the detainees. Why the judiciary, and not the Intelligence Ministry, should be privy to such evidence went unexplained. Shortly after, 150 MPs sent an open letter to the judiciary calling for an end to illegal arrests of liberal and reformist figures.
The Freedom Movement thinks that authoritarian hardliners are attempting to avoid the mistake they made in 1998 by allowing the moderate Khatami to become president. The aim is to "dissuade Mr Khatami, reformists and the people from participating in the elections," said a Freedom Movement statement. Not one to comment directly on arrests, Khatami himself was moved to bland criticism: "Such measures are not in the direct of the political system and people," he remarked.
As the June presidential election nears, the recent whirlwind of arrests and newspaper closures (four, earlier this month) was probably inevitable. Prominent hardliners have openly said Khatami should step aside, his economic plan a failure and his political freedoms a subversion of Islam and the regime. So far, Khatami has refused to commit to re-election. Senior aides insist he will run, but his waiting is as much a grappling with serious doubts as it is tactical. Even eager advisors are not faulting the president for his silence at key moments in the reform movement's struggle.
But other reformists worry that Khatami's truncated room for manoeuvre will have led to disillusion with him among even his own supporters. This may mean a low turnout at the polls. A president re-elected by only half the number of his original supporters is a frightening scenario for the reform movement.
For the families of the growing number of political detainees in prison, Khatami's stepping aside could mean their relatives are released sooner. His re-election looks increasingly pointless, when he can neither carry forward reforms, nor protect his supporters. Then again, perhaps just talking about reform is all the Islamic Republic can currently handle.
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