Dealing with the dole

As workers in this country and around the world observe May Day, Al-Ahram Weekly considers two crucial issues of labour in Egypt
Dealing with the dole
Recent efforts to combat unemployment in Egypt have met with little success. Should new strategies be devised? Gihan Shahine samples the views of ILO officials
Life has not been smooth for Yasser, 29, since his graduation from the faculty of agriculture in 1993. Unable to find a job in his field of study, Yasser had to launch a career in marketing. He used to jump from one small company to another, with lengthy periods of joblessness in between. Yasser had to quit his last job as a marketing manager a year ago. The company where Yasser worked had financial problems. For two months they could not pay him. That was a year ago. Yasser found another job only a couple of months ago. His new work is "unfulfilling and financially unrewarding," he says. He has been engaged for over a year but even now, cannot afford to marry.
"I tried every possible way to get a better job, but couldn't," Yasser complains. "Big firms require 10 to 20 years of experience, while small companies underpay employees and put them in jobs that do not fit their qualifications. I'm not the only case here; unemployment is one of the major problems youths face. It's killing."
Unemployment is burgeoning into a worldwide epidemic that has stumped experts everywhere. International Labour Organisation (ILO) statistics indicate that 160 million people who could be working aren't. And 750 million are underemployed, in insecure jobs producing far less than they could. The future is no more hopeful. At least half a billion jobs must be created worldwide in the next 10 years to provide new job-seekers with work.
Egypt is part of this trend. Despite recent official statistics claiming a fall in unemployment from 8.2 per cent of the workforce in 1997/8 to 7.9 per cent in 1998/9, many experts insist that these figures are untrue.
Egypt's population is growing fast (at a rate of 2.2 per cent a year). The labour force is growing even quicker (2.6 per cent a year). The economy is growing at only 4.4 to five per cent a year, according to government statistics. Over half a million reach employment age each year, according to a study by Samir Radwan, ILO senior employment adviser. The economy is growing too slowly to provide them with work. "What is important for Egypt is the trend and pattern of unemployment," maintains Radwan. If the unemployment rate is rising, Radwan explains, then policy-makers need to worry. That rate is rising -- and fast. "Youths between 15 and 24 make up 74 per cent of the unemployed. We have a serious problem," Radwan adds. "Unemployment has to be confronted immediately."
According to a recent study by the Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics, unemployment rates show a striking age pattern. Unemployment is greatest among 15-25 year olds. If you are in that age group, you have a 27.5 per cent chance of being jobless. In other age groups, your chance is closer to one in 10. Moreover, unemployment lasts longest among the youth, reaching 37, 64 and 67 months for the age groups 20-25, 25-30 and 30-40 respectively. For those looking for work for the first time, unemployment is a staggering 95 per cent.
Nor does a good education necessarily guarantee you a job. If you are one of those with an intermediate education, one in three of you will be jobless. With an above intermediate education, one in five of you will be without work. Among university graduates unemployment is 12 per cent. But, oddly, government statistics suggest that only one per cent of illiterates have no job.
There is now a consensus among experts and policy-makers that it is time to focus policy on creating jobs and alleviating poverty. Many experts believe that Egypt, having achieved significant progress at the macroeconomic level, is in a strong position to launch a job-creation initiative to cope with the daunting problems of unemployment and poverty. The International Labour Organisation (ILO) has been assigned to prepare the framework.
That, perhaps, is what made unemployment a highlight of ILO Director General Juan Somavia's visit to Egypt. During his stay, Somavia met Mrs Suzanne Mubarak, Prime Minister Atef Ebeid, Minister of Manpower Ahmed El-Amawi, the speaker of the Federation for Egyptian Industries, the head of the General Federation of Trade Unions, the speaker of the People's Assembly and scholars.
"The aim of the visit was to discuss areas of cooperation between Egypt and the ILO; to identify areas in which the ILO can be helpful," Somavia told a press conference held at the end of his visit.
The ILO is currently directing efforts towards job creation, workers' rights, social protection, the promotion of dialogue among employers, workers and governments, and making what it calls "a decent work development strategy." "In other words, we want to create more jobs, and better quality of work, as much as the development process permits it;" Somavia said. "But we also care for productivity, that jobs are done in a competitive way, which, though essential, is not easy to achieve." In Egypt the ILO has been working with the government, providing advice and developing the national employment programme, according to Somavia. Globally, combating unemployment requires a "strong international commitment to creating more jobs, which should be first on the policy agenda." Somavia congratulated Egypt for making job creation a priority.
But many obstacles loom. Education and skills development are among them. "One of the biggest problems is being educated in ways that don't give you access to work," Somavia argued. The world changes fast, he explained, and youths need to be educated with a flexible attitude toward that change.
"Obviously, this is not knowledge, it's an attitude," Somavia said. "Life-long learning is key, because the knowledge base of society changes fast. Changes in attitude will not create employment tomorrow, but unless we begin working on fundamentals, like how people adapt to the changing working conditions, we will never make it."
Somavia does have remedies for the immediate unemployment crisis, though: "When you find yourself in absolute need to create jobs, you revert to some of the traditional solutions: public works create a lot of jobs and obviously all our societies require much better infrastructure." The societies of today, Somavia asserted, also need an enormous amount of services that can be offered by public organisations and private firms, creating more jobs.
"Jobs are basically created through small and medium enterprises," Somavia maintained. Globally, however, it is more difficult to create a small enterprise than maintain a big one: small entrepreneurs have no access to credit and have to go through many bureaucratic procedures to get it. "The ILO is thus promoting the creation of enterprise schemes to create jobs."
Moving to specifics, Somavia spoke of the impact of new technology on employment. "It has eliminated jobs on one side, but by now the technology has become so pervasive that an enormous amount of new products are emerging, creating jobs," Somavia maintained. Somavia also reminded listeners of the importance of foreign investment. "It brings technologies, experts, new management systems, and a good labour standard," he pointed out. But he also cautioned that it doesn't bring enough jobs. "Developing countries, therefore, need to increase productivity in the informal economy, in small enterprises and in areas where foreign investment does not create jobs," he advised.
According to ILO adviser Samir Radwan, the Egyptian government is planning a comprehensive employment scheme, with both short-term and long-term elements. The short-term programme includes public work projects, to be implemented by both the government and NGOs. The government is also considering a programme to develop traditional exports and to promote tourism.
"Another plan is under consideration to establish a bank for crafts people, who are a large sector of the labour market but lack access to bank loans," Radwan said. "That is in addition to the role the Social Development Fund already plays, granting loans to small and medium enterprises." Also under consideration is a project to expand the number of Internet cafes and distribute mobile phones in villages and remote areas where mobile phones are particularly useful.
As for the long-term plan, Radwan said that the government is considering establishing a fund to train workers and develop skills.
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