As the Iraqi election campaign took off last week, there were fears that the ballot could be just another missed opportunity, writes Salah Hemeid In its State of Law Coalition programme for next month's national elections, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki's alliance has pledged that it will work to rebuild the war-devastated nation as a state of "justice, equality, responsibility and efficiency". The manifesto, announced this week, tries to justify why Al-Maliki's government has not been able to achieve these goals after four years in office by blaming the failure on political partners, time limits, continuous violence and parliamentary bickering. This is classic election-time rhetoric, often derided by opponents as simplistic and bereft of real policy proposals. Had Al-Maliki had an outspoken rival, such as Sarah Palin, the Republican vice-presidential candidate in the 2008 US presidential elections, he or she would surely have ridiculed the Iraqi leader's promises as simply so much "hopey-changey stuff", akin to the pledges made by current US President Barack Obama in his 2008 election campaign. Yet, the question that faces Iraqis now is not whether Al-Maliki's bloc or the rival groups can live up to their election promises, but rather whether the crucial national balloting itself will be fair, peaceful and credible and will help stabilise the sharply divided nation. Campaigning in the elections started last Friday after months of wrangling and amid furore over a government commission's decision to bar dozens of mostly Sunni candidates from running in the 7 March vote over their alleged links to former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein's Baath Party. The blacklist, largely drawn up by Shias, is seen as targeting the country's Sunnis, though some Shias are also on the list. Most of the disqualified candidates are from the Iraqi National Movement, a coalition of mostly Sunni groups led by former Shia prime minister Iyad Allawi. Among those suspended is Saleh Al-Mutlaq, an influential Sunni lawmaker accused of propagating Baathism. It is unclear how many of the movement's candidates have in fact been banned from running, but election officials initially put the number at 72. The movement has suspended its campaign for three days while it decides on its next steps. Initially, the bloc had urged Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and his two deputies to intervene in order to "examine the means of creating the best climate for the elections", and it has demanded that Iraq's federal court overturn the ban. There have also been calls among some Sunnis to boycott the elections. Al-Mutlaq himself was quoted on Sunday by the US Today newspaper as saying that he may call on his supporters to stay out of the elections if the ban is not reversed. "It is becoming difficult for me to tell my people to go to the election when I know that it is fixed," Al-Mutlaq said. On Monday, Al-Mutlaq told a tribal meeting in Baghdad that the movement might also consider other options. "Prepare yourselves for all possibilities -- we face difficult choices over the next few days," Al-Mutlaq said, adding that, "we will not shy away from any choice if we realise that the election will be rigged in advance." Iraqi Sunnis dominated the ruling Baath Party and key government, military and security posts under Saddam's regime. After Saddam's overthrow in 2003, the majority Shias took control of Iraq's government and pushed hard to weed out senior Saddam-era officials from public offices, the army and security forces. However, many Sunnis believe that the policy, initiated by the United States shortly after the US-led invasion, has gone too far, penalising people who had to join the Baath Party in order to advance their careers or gain government posts and scholarships. The Sunnis largely boycotted the country's 2005 elections, leading to their being underrepresented in the country's present parliament. This year's elections will be a crucial test of whether Iraqis can vote in a government that is capable of overcoming the country's deepening ethnic and sectarian divide, or whether these divisions will give way to violence that threatens the country's unity and stability. A Sunni boycott of the elections this time around could throw the election results into doubt and threaten to undermine Iraq's political stability, worrying US officials who fear that it could throw the credibility of the elections into question and undo security gains. A Sunni boycott could also re-ignite violence between Iraq's two main Muslim communities and hamper US efforts to withdraw its troops. Iraqi Shia leaders have accused the Obama administration of pushing hard for former Baathists to be included in the political process through the forthcoming elections. Ahmed Chalabi, a former US-backed Iraqi politician and now a critic of US policies in the country, has accused US Vice-President Joe Biden and Washington's Ambassador to Baghdad Christopher Hill of applying pressure on the committee responsible for vetting candidates for the elections and on judges ruling on who could stand for office. For their part, Iraqi Sunni leaders have fired back by accusing the Shia-led government of being influenced by Iran. They have pointed to remarks made by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a speech marking the 31st anniversary of Iran's Islamic Revolution last week, in which he said that the United States was pressuring Iraqis to tolerate a revival of the Baath Party. "We will not accept that the rulers of Iran tell us the way to run our elections," Al-Mutlaq said. Iraq's Sunni Vice- President Tariq Al-Hashemi also protested to Iran's ambassador in Baghdad about Ahmadinejad's comments, saying that they provided evidence of Tehran's "blatant interference" in Iraqi affairs. The debate over Washington's and Tehran's roles in the country has refocussed attention on Iraq's elections, which are crucial not only to Iraqis but also to the region at large. While Shia religious groups, which control both the parliament and the government, fear that the US may be attempting to bring down the Shia-controlled government in an effort to appease other Sunni Arab governments, there is also an increasing fear that alienating the Sunni community from the political process could lead it to believe that violence is the only way to fight Shia control and Iranian influence. In an article that appeared in The Washington Post on 3 February, former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger urged Obama to reconsider his Iraq policy and return to the old American policy of "equilibrium between Iraq and Iran". In his article, Kissinger argued that the Shia-dominated structure that has emerged in Iraq "has not yet found the appropriate balance among its Sunni, Shia and Kurdish components. Nor is its long-term relationship to Iran settled." "The Obama administration needs to find its voice to convey that Iraq continues to play a significant role in American strategy. Operational continuity is needed in a strategic concept for a region over which the specter of Iran increasingly looms," he wrote. In the meantime, violence has continued in Iraq, feeding into the election debate and sending a strong reminder that the country might return to civil strife. On Saturday blasts struck the offices or homes of members of at least five political parties, including Al-Mutlaq's National Dialogue Front. The blasts followed warnings from the leader of the Al-Qaeda terrorist group in Iraq, Abu Omar Al-Baghdadi, threatening to derail the elections. "Sunni participation in this election will certainly lead to the establishment of the principle that the Sunnis in Iraq are a minority that has to be ruled by the rejectionists," Al-Baghdadi said, in a reference to the Shias, whom extremist Sunnis consider as heretics.
