Turkey repeated its total rejection of a federal solution in a post-Saddam Iraq. Gareth Jenkins reports from Ankara On Saturday the Turkish military issued a statement denying press reports that a large contingent of troops had crossed the border into northern Iraq. These reports have come amid increasing speculation that Turkey is preparing to take military action to prevent the establishment of an independent Kurdish state in post-war northern Iraq. On Tuesday, Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit was quoted as saying that conflicting messages from Washington on Iraq harmed Turkey, and the Bush administration should make up its mind on whether or not to strike Baghdad. Ecivit's remarks, published a day after US Central Command chief Tommy Franks met with Turkish military brass to discuss Iraq, reflect the NATO ally's unease over a war next door that could spark economic and social turmoil at home. "President Bush and the US administration should make their decision immediately and this uncertainty should be eliminated," Ecevit told Milliyet newspaper. Turkey, he stressed, is affected most negatively by this contradiction. "We are left in the middle and under great pressure." Ever since the end of the 1991 Gulf War, Turkey has consistently maintained that it will block any attempt by Iraq's four million Kurds to establish an independent state in the north of the country, primarily for fear that such a move could fuel separatist sentiment amongst Turkey's own 15-20 million Kurds. Turkey has maintained a permanent military presence in northern Iraq since the early 1990s. Initially, the troops were primarily engaged in intelligence gathering against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). In 1984, the PKK launched a military campaign aimed at gaining greater autonomy for Turkish Kurds. The group's activities have increased since the establishment of the US-protected safe haven in northern Iraq in 1991, and they have established a string of camps in the mountains along the Iraqi-Turkish border. But the PKK declared a unilateral cease- fire in August 1999 following the capture and imprisonment of its leader Abdullah Ocalan in Turkey earlier in the year. Although the PKK still has around 5,000 militants under arms in northern Iraq, armed clashes inside Turkey have now come to an almost complete halt. In recent years, the Turkish troops in northern Iraq, which are estimated to have grown to the equivalent of a brigade, have concentrated more on monitoring the activities of the Iraqi Kurds and serving as a deterrent should they attempt to establish an independent state. The determination of the US government to launch a military campaign to topple Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has set off alarm bells in Ankara, which fears that the Iraqi Kurds could demand an independent state in return for participation in a US-led ground offensive. Turkey's fears have been further fueled by the apparent rapprochement between the two main Iraqi Kurdish factions; the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), led by Massoud Barzani, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), led by Jalal Talabani. Earlier this month the KDP and PUK held a joint session of a Kurdish Parliament and even published a draft constitution for a Kurdish state, naming the oil- rich city of Kirkuk as its capital. Last week Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit warned that the Iraqi Kurds had established an independent state in everything but name. His claims were immediately played down by Turkish Foreign Ministry officials, who publicly insisted that the situation was under control and that there was no cause for alarm. Privately, however, Turkish officials, particularly in the country's powerful military, remain alarmed and are adamant that Turkey will never allow the establishment either of an independent Kurdish state or a Kurdish-dominated autonomous region in northern Iraq and is prepared to resort to armed force if necessary. The Iraqi Kurds are believed to have around 50,000 men under arms, including both soldiers and members of irregular militia. But, with the exception of 2-3 aging former Iraqi tanks, they have no heavy weaponry and no air force; and would prove no match for the massive firepower at Turkey's disposable. During its campaign against the PKK, the Turkish military launched 14 major cross border operations into northern Iraq, including the deployment of tanks and heavy artillery backed by air power. "Turkey has the strongest army in the region and a lot of experience of deploying forces into northern Iraq," said a source close to the Turkish military. "We don't need a high military presence inside the country at the moment. Our troops along the border are already on alert. If we decide to launch an operation they would be across the border within hours." On Friday KDP leader Massoud Barzani sought to allay Turkish fears. "We have a right to independence like other peoples in the world and in the region do," he told CNN Turk, the Turkish affiliate of the US- based CNN. "But we know about international conditions and we know it's not possible to do everything whenever you want. Our views are clear. But there is a difference between what you wish for and what you are capable of. At the moment we definitely want a federal solution in Iraq within Iraq's boundaries." Turkey is already applying an economic stranglehold on the landlocked Kurdish enclave. Earlier this year it closed the Habur border gate, which used to earn the Iraqi Kurds hundreds of millions of dollars through sanctions-busting trade in smuggled oil and diesel. While the prospect of reshaping Iraq in the wake of overthrowing Saddam Hussein has reawakened neo- Ottoman expansionist dreams amongst Turkish nationalists, who have never accepted the British seizure of the provinces of Mosul and Kirkuk in the aftermath of the First World War. Turkish officials have already drawn up contingency plans for post-Saddam Iraq under which Iraq's tiny Turcoman minority would be given a major role in the administration of the north of the country. "If there is to be a devolution of power in Iraq after Saddam has gone then we expect the Turcomans to be given at least as much power as the Kurds in the north of the country," said a Turkish official. "Of course, we would arm the Turcomans and provide whatever military means were required in order to protect them. Mosul and Kirkuk are really ours anyway. And we would expect Washington to make sure that Turkish firms were also given the rights to exploit natural resources, such as oil, in northern Iraq."
