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A fuzzy map
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 21 - 11 - 2002

Though Cairo was encouraged by a modified American peace plan, the path ahead of this particular road map remains murky. Soha Abdelaty reports
US President George Bush's oft-discussed 24 June vision for Middle East peace, while welcomed by most of the parties involved with the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, lacked a time-frame: a step-by-step, detailed plan of when and how to reach the establishment of a Palestinian state, side by side with Israel. For the past couple of months the US has been working with the other members of the Quartet -- the European Union (EU), the United Nations (UN) and Russia -- to develop just such a road-map, one that would be agreeable to most of the parties concerned. At the same time, the break- down of Israel's coalition government has given the impression that the plan would be placed on the back-burner until elections are held there in January.
Undaunted, the US deputy assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs, David Satterfield, has been touring the region over the past two weeks with a modified version of the original plan suggested in October. Although Cairo was expecting to see a written draft of the latest plan, there was some consolation in US assurances that many of the Egyptian observations have been incorporated.
The modified version comes as a result of both last month's regional tour by US Assistant Secretary of State Edward Burns -- during which he gathered each party's observations on the plan -- and a subsequent meeting with the other three members of the Quartet. "They have reached, with the remaining members of the Quartet," Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher told reporters on Sunday after meeting with Satterfield, "a new draft that agrees to a large extent with the points that we have raised with them."
Egypt was particularly concerned with the issue of settlements in Jerusalem, as well as the side-lining of President Yasser Arafat. Cairo also hoped to see international observers dispatched to the region sooner rather than later. Diplomatic sources told Al-Ahram Weekly that one of Egypt's main goals was to emphasise the principle of both sides implementing their obligations in parallel or simultaneously, rather than consecutively, which usually meant that the Palestinian side was forced to implement their share of obligations first.
Egyptian officials said they remain weary of Israeli intentions and willingness to achieve peace. "Despite our appreciation for this response [to the Egyptian observations on the road map] what we see on the ground is an Israeli persistence to try to damage any real attempt to achieve peace," Maher said, pointing to recent statements by Israeli officials, recent Israeli incursions into Hebron, and Israel's insistence on continuing its freeze on Palestinian funds. Maher accused Israel of trying to abort all attempts at peace, including the newly launched road map. "Any credibility for any effort towards peace is being endangered as a result of Israeli [policies] at a time when we are moving towards finalising the road map." At the same time, Maher told the American envoy, "the US has to make its role more pronounced in making Israel change its course." The foreign minister said he had asked the same of European officials.
Satterfield's mission was also meant to garner official replies to the revised road map from both the Israeli and Palestinian sides. While the Palestinians lived up their side of the deal, the Israeli government has declined to offer its official response. Zalman Shoval, an adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, said on Friday that the road map is "not in deep freeze, but it's [been] put on ice until after the Israeli elections... The moment there is an election period, such far-reaching decisions on the future of the country are always put on hold, always, it's reality."
This was not the message Cairo heard from Satterfield, who, according to Egyptian officials, did not tell them that progress on the road map would be postponed. Instead, the US and EU voiced their determination to continue working on the road map. "We are setting up a very good dialogue," Satterfield said after meeting with Maher on Sunday. "As my mission, as the mission of Assistant Secretary Burns before me indicate, we do continue to work and consult with the parties on this issue."
European envoy for the Middle East Miguel Moratinos -- in Cairo on Monday -- was even more driven on the issue. "There's full determination within the four members [of the Quartet] to have a road map, whatever is happening in the region, whatever the crisis that can affect the whole initiative," he said after meeting Maher on Tuesday. "The time has come for the international community to assume their responsibilities and to present to the parties some ideas, some proposals, that could facilitate the end of this crisis."
Diplomatic sources were quick to point out that even though Israel has declined from offering their official response to the plan, they had already voiced reservations on the road map during Burn's visit, supplying the international parties with enough material to work with while formulating the new draft.
The plan is expected to be fine-tuned at the Quartet's next meeting in December, after which the new draft will once again be presented to all the parties involved.
The real test for the American road map will arise when the time comes to begin implementing its specific steps. But given recent Israeli actions, Egyptian officials remain sceptical. "Israel is insisting on confronting the world," Maher said on Tuesday. "Therefore, when they [the Quartet] agree on the final draft, it is important that there be a strong impetus behind it so that Israel will not be provided with the opportunity to find excuses for not committing to it."
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Juggling priorities 17 - 23 October 2002
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