Soha Abdelaty looks at the Egyptian diplomatic agenda for 2003 The unprecedented escalation of violence in the occupied Palestinian territories, combined with a complete breakdown of all peace initiatives, the impending war on Iraq, and the US's active involvement in the conflict in Sudan, all combined to make 2002 a tough year for Egyptian diplomacy. Observers say 2003 does not look to be much brighter. "It is very clear that next year is going to be difficult," Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher told reporters on Monday. When it comes to Iraq, Egyptian officials acknowledge the volatility of the whole situation, but like to believe that there is still a chance that war can be avoided through diplomacy. President Hosni Mubarak's chief political adviser Osama El-Baz said on Saturday that war against Iraq is "not necessarily imminent" because, for one thing, the forces which carry out the strikes "may not be able to instate a regime which would ensure peace, stability and unity". El-Baz said it was still unknown whether Iraq "has a role in the upswing of international terrorism, and hence it is inaccurate to say that the attention being focused on Iraq is part of the war against terror". He said that the US's Iraq policy is "in reality part of the US view of regimes which appear to be defiant of the US". Maher, meanwhile, indicated that "the chances of avoiding war are perhaps not great, but they are certainly much greater than they were two months ago." The relentless US military build-up in the Gulf combined with hard-line statements by US officials are part of a strategy to increase pressure on President Saddam Hussein's regime, according to Egyptian officials. "I believe the US is convinced that the more it shows its determination for war, the greater the chance that war will be avoided," said Maher. "By building up [their troop presence], one can achieve what can be called a victory, without actually moving these troops." But what if diplomacy fails and the US decides to actually launch its war against Iraq? Even if the war is launched with the blessing of the UN, "we will not send troops and we will not take part in this war," Maher said. "Egypt will not in any way take part in an offensive." The Egyptian foreign minister also said that it seems unlikely the UN will give its blessings to such an attack. "I cannot imagine -- in light of recent Iraqi cooperation with the inspectors -- that there will be a resolution" authorising the use of force against Iraq, Maher told Al-Ahram Weekly. In the meantime, Egypt is determined to continue working on convincing Iraq to cooperate even further, while simultaneously urging the US to exercise restraint. "One cannot know how things will turn out," Maher said on 26 December. "But we continue to work as if it were possible to avoid war." At the same time, Egyptian officials are of the view that -- parallel to a discussion of Iraqi disarmament -- Israel's weapons of mass destruction should not be overlooked. Regarding the situation in the Palestinian territories, El-Baz said that the Palestinians are going through "possibly the most difficult time in their history, in light of the vicious attacks carried out daily by Israel". In addition, an intransigent set of Israeli policies, accompanied by upcoming Israeli elections, will only make the upcoming period more "difficult", say Egyptian officials. The Israeli public is confused, Maher says, while at the same time there "are attempts to push the Israeli political arena to the right", and towards "more extremism". Last year witnessed an intensified series of contacts with members of the Israeli peace camp, which Maher says has only just "started to move" after a long period of silence. Egypt will continue to encourage this dialogue, despite any rifts it creates between the Egyptian and Israeli governments. Although the American roadmap has been postponed, it remains on the agenda, Egyptian officials believe. Also on the agenda is British Prime Minister Tony Blair's initiative to host a peace conference in the UK next month. The conference is to discuss ways to assist the Palestinians as they "prepare for statehood", according to Blair. Cairo, which has been in close contact with London as the meeting's agenda is sorted out, says it has not yet received an official invitation to the conference. Furthermore, the agenda, as it stands now, is too limited. "If there's an international interest in Palestinian reform... the issue of Israeli obligations also have to be discussed," Maher said on Monday. "It is illogical to talk about Palestinian reform while Israel continues to pursue policies and practices" which do not promote peace. Egypt, meanwhile, will not be offering its own initiative. Cairo has been hosting talks between Palestinian factions in the past few weeks, but it denies that it has offered the Palestinians and Israelis any new initiatives. Reports have been circulating about an Egyptian plan stipulating an end to all bombings, in return for Israeli withdrawal to the 28 September lines and President Yasser Arafat's freedom of movement. As for Sudan, Cairo is determined to steer clear of the Machakos peace talks which began without its involvement. "We will not be part of Machakos, but we will not be far from the Sudanese issue," Maher said on Monday. A key player on all three issues has been, and will continue to be, the US. While Egypt and other countries will continue to seek fair-handed American engagement in the region, American and Egyptian fall-outs -- of which 2002 saw several -- are expected to continue. The US administration is determined to follow its own agenda in the region, which now includes a desire to catalyse domestic political and economic reform across the Middle East. The US-Middle East Partnership Initiative was launched by US Secretary of State Colin Powell early this month, dedicating $29 million to serve these aims. Egyptian officials see the initiative as yet another reason to be discouraged by US intentions for the region. Cairo believes that Egypt has already embarked upon a great many economic and political reforms, and is uncomfortable with the idea that reform should be dictated from above. "I do not know the reason behind this initiative and the particular timing of it," Maher said skeptically on Monday, "but if it's a matter of enlightening us on certain issues, we are already enlightened." Libya's decision to withdraw from the Arab League last year reflects the state of affairs Arab countries find themselves in at the outset of 2003. The North African country was, over the last year, the most vocal in voicing the frustrations of the Arab masses at their government's paralysis in dealing with the situation in the region. Cairo convinced Tripoli to abandon its plans to withdraw but on the condition that the Arab bloc take a more activist stance. These issues were likely to top the agenda of the upcoming Arab summit in March in Bahrain. It remains to be seen, however, how successful Libya's wake-up call will be in brining about effective Arab action.
