Eleventh-hour consultations may yet succeed in averting war in the region, writes Ibrahim Nafie Egypt is at the centre of consultations among Arab and non-Arab countries aimed at averting a US-led war against Iraq. And while the details of these discussions remain secret those close to them feel that there is a 50 per cent chance that the Iraqi crisis will be resolved peacefully. Working to avert a war that will be disastrous for the region's stability and that will impact catastrophically in the political and economic arenas, Cairo is in close contact with the Americans and Iraqis, as well as with key regional players such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey. President Hosni Mubarak met with Saudi Arabia's King Fahd and Crown Prince Abdullah in Riyadh on Tuesday to discuss strategies to contain escalating regional tension and defuse the stand-off between Washington and Baghdad. On his return from the whistle-stop visit Mubarak described the situation as "very dangerous". He told the editors-in-chief aboard his flight home that "judgment and precise calculations" are needed if a war is to be avoided. In their absence, he warned, "the region and the world will pay a high price." The only way forward, he said, was to engage in "continuous dialogue". Mubarak revealed that efforts by Arab and non- Arab countries in the region to calm tensions have already tipped the balance towards the possibility of a more peaceful resolution. Turkish Prime Minister Abdullah Gul discussed several ideas during his recent visits to the region, which included stops in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Jordan. "Discussions were frank and focussed on how to end this crisis without war," Mubarak said of his talks with Gul, noting that "this requires exact knowledge of the positions of the Iraqis and Americans." While he did not give any details about proposals currently under discussion, Mubarak did reveal that there are "suggestions to send envoys to Washington and Baghdad and to hold a regional conference". He would not comment on reports that two envoys will be sent "in secret" to Baghdad to talk with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein about his options, remarking only that "there is no such thing as a 'secret' in the world of politics today." He also brushed aside proposals for the convening of an emergency Arab or regional summit, insisting that such gatherings should be held only if they result in more than rhetoric. "Summit-level meetings must be of benefit and their outcome guaranteed. Otherwise, they could do more harm than good," said Mubarak. On Saturday a special envoy of the Iraqi president is expected to arrive in Cairo, conveying a message to Mubarak. Meanwhile, consultations continue between Cairo and Washington, which reassured Egypt two months ago that the crisis could be resolved peacefully. "President George Bush told me in a telephone conversation when I was in Morocco [in late October] that war is not the only option and that he wants to resolve the crisis peacefully," Mubarak said. Despite the mobilisation of large numbers of US troops in the region and around Iraq Mubarak believes that chances for a peaceful solution remain and that the massing of troops in the region does not mean war is inevitable. "Everything is calculated; the mobilisation of forces, troop movements, transfer of equipment. They all add pressure on the adversary," he said, "and Iraq must not give any pretext for strikes." While a decision to go to war is not in the hands of the Arabs, "our role", he said, "is to make clear the consequences and dangers of going to war, and work to remove obstacles and misunderstandings which aggravate the crisis." Mubarak called on Saddam to cooperate with the inspection teams and fill in any gaps in the weapons programme declaration presented to the UN last month. "Iraq must accept all international resolutions, remove all obstacles facing the inspection teams, be patient and avoid any trouble with the inspectors," he insisted. A high-level Egyptian delegation will head to the US at the end of this month for talks with officials there, and will doubtless convey the concerns of the entire region about the destabilising effects of any strike. "My responsibility as president of Egypt is not to put my country and people in a difficult position," Mubarak said, "which is why we will spare no effort with any party in avoiding a war." Mubarak also revealed that Cairo is trying to "create a new atmosphere for talks to begin between the Palestinians and Israelis," hosting talks between Palestinian factions to allow for the cease- fire necessary before negotiations can be relaunched. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has criticised these attempts to restart negotiations. "Unfortunately," noted Mubarak, "Sharon does not want to restart talks and strangely enough considers our contacts with the Palestinians and Israelis as interference in Israel's internal affairs."
