By electing Tassos Papadopoulos as president, Greek Cypriots signal radical change in the island-nation's political direction, reports Michael Jansen from Nicosia Twelve days before the deadline for acceptance of a United Nations (UN) reunification plan for divided Cyprus, Greek Cypriot voters changed negotiators by electing Tassos Papadopoulos president of the republic. His victory came as no surprise. Public opinion surveys confidently predicted his defeat of incumbent Glafkos Clerides by a margin of 12-13 per cent. Papadopoulos received 51.51 per cent of the vote and Clerides 38.80 per cent. Papadopoulos belongs to the "old guard" of independence- era politicians. A lawyer, he has had a long career in politics. He was the youngest minister in both the post-colonial transitional administration and the first Cyprus government where he held the interior and labour portfolios. He has served as his community's negotiator in talks with the Turkish Cypriots and as a member of parliament. The election, the ninth since the island's independence in 1960, amounted to a stunning vote of no confidence in Clerides' and the UN's handling of negotiations for a political settlement based on Secretary-General Kofi Annan's proposal put forward last November. The Annan plan provides for two largely autonomous communal cantons linked by a weak federal administration presided over by a presidential council. Clerides accepted the plan as a basis for negotiations in spite of widespread concern amongst Greek Cypriots that the federal system envisaged in the Annan plan would be unworkable. However, since Cyprus is expected to become a member of the European Union (EU) in May 2004, the majority of Greek Cypriots was prepared to agree to the plan in the belief that difficulties between the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities could be worked out within the framework of the EU. The hope amongst Greek and Turkish Cypriots was for the entry of a united rather than a divided Cyprus. Last ditch intensive talks failed to achieve progress because Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash, backed by the mainland Turkish military and old-guard politicians, not only rejected the Annan plan but also threatened to resign if pressed to do so by Turkey's new Justice and Development Party government, which initially supported a deal. Denktash, who has led the Turkish Cypriots for half a century, continues to insist on international recognition for his breakaway state and a settlement consisting of a confederation of two sovereign states. Both demands have been turned down by the Greek Cypriots, the UN, and the EU. Denktash also flatly rejected the plan's provision stipulating the reduction of the Turkish Cypriot controlled area from 37 per cent to 28.5 per cent of the territory of the island. This is in spite of the fact that a large majority of Turkish Cypriots are prepared to sacrifice land for a political settlement which would enable them to join the EU along with the Greek Cypriots. Denktash's refusal to enter into an agreement has led to general disillusionment with the negotiations on both sides of the Green Line that bisects this small island. Sixty-four per cent of Greek Cypriots now believe that there cannot be a settlement because of the combined opposition of Denktash and the powerful Turkish politico-military establishment, which are committed to de facto partition. In addition, an increasingly vocal majority of Turkish Cypriots now insists that there cannot be reunification as long as Denktash remains their leader. Last month 57,000 Turkish Cypriots, more than 70 per cent of the community, took to the streets in northern Nicosia to protest against Denktash's obstructionist stand and to demand his resignation. Both communities have been disheartened by the fact that, as a result of pressure from Denktash and his backers, Turkey's Justice and Development Party no longer supports the Annan plan. The current Turkish position is that there can be no movement on a Cyprus settlement until after the expected US war on Iraq. Turkey expects Washington to support its claims on Cyprus in exchange for supporting the Bush administration's war effort by granting the US use of military bases and permitting tens of thousands of US troops to move into northern Iraq from Turkish territory. This being the case, Papadopoulo's victory is unlikely to make a difference in settlement negotiations unless there is a major change of policy on the Turkish side. While he has been portrayed as a "hard-liner" by the US and Britain -- which are constantly pressing the Greek Cypriots for concessions -- he simply has more reservations about the Annan plan than Clerides. Nevertheless, during his victory speech before huge crowds at an indoor stadium in the capital, Papadopoulos stated, "I'm ready to start negotiations, and I hope the UN secretary-general will be able to break the deadlock. I'm committed to finding a solution and I'll make every effort so that a united Cyprus can join the European Union in May 2004." Papadopoulos, who heads the centre-right Democratic Party, won with the backing of the powerful Communist Akel Party -- which enjoys the support of 33 per cent of Greek Cypriots -- the small Socialist Party and the Greens. The support of these three parties, which have promoted reconciliation with the Turkish Cypriots, ensures that he will have to follow more or less the same line adopted by Clerides. Indeed, during his address he indicated he would by saying that he looked forward to working with these parties "in order to see a reunited Cyprus joining the European Union and see Greek and Turkish Cypriots enjoying the benefits brought by EU membership". Papadopoulo's victory means Clerides will not be able to sign a reunification deal before the 28 February UN deadline when he leaves office. Kofi Annan and his envoy Alvaro de Soto do not appear to have provided for this scenario. On election eve, de Soto warned that failure to meet the deadline meant "it will not be possible for a united Cyprus to sign the [European Union] treaty of accession on 16 April." He asserted, "that is the importance of the deadline...everything changes after 16 April, and the opportunity that has existed until now disappears..." Indeed, the Turkish Cypriot bid for membership will be frozen, perhaps until December 2004 when Ankara receives a date for its negotiations to begin. By then the internationally recognised Greek Cypriot majority republic is expected be a full member of the EU and the Turkish Cypriots will be out in the cold.
