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Happy ever after
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 01 - 04 - 2004

Amid alpine vistas discussions on the future of Cyprus come close to concluding, reports Michael Jansen from Burgenstock, Switzerland
Last ditch talks to resolve the 40-year-old Cypriot problem reached a critical phase on Monday when United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan presented Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders with his revised plan for the reunification of the island in a Swiss-style federation. The comprehensive UN package -- presented in a 9,000-page document -- includes the federal framework, constitutions for the component states, laws, treaties and regulations for the relationship between the troubled island and the EU.
Discussions focussed on the 200 pages that cover the core issues. The Greek and Turkish prime ministers, Costas Karamanlis and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, flew in for the final two days of meetings at the exclusive Burgenstock resort in the central Swiss mountains where the peace deal between the Sudanese government and southern rebels was struck in 2002.
This was the second time negotiations to define the polity of Cyprus have been held in Switzerland. In 1959, Britain -- the departing colonial power -- and Greece and Turkey -- the so- called "motherlands" of the two Cypriot communities -- sat in Zurich, 90 kilometres from Burgenstock, and drew up the power-sharing constitution of the Cypriot republic. The constitution was promulgated in August 1960, but the arrangements it proposed never worked. The 82 per cent Greek- Cypriot majority still wanted independence in a single, unified state while the Turkish-Cypriot leadership, representing the other 18 per cent of the population, strove for functional partition under the protection of Turkey.
The Zurich agreement gave way to violence in 1963 with Turkish Cypriots withdrawing from the republic into communal enclaves, achieving fragmented territorial partition. In 1974, following an attempted coup by the military junta in Athens, the Turkish army occupied the northern 37 per cent of the island and drove out Greek Cypriots living there, attaining Ankara's longstanding ambition in a de facto partition of the island. Turkey installed tens of thousands of settlers from the mainland and 35-40,000 troops on the island, thus becoming the new colonial power in the north and dominating the area's politics. But the Turkish-Cypriot breakaway mini-state has been shunned by the international community, Turkey's bid for membership in the EU jeopardised by its ongoing occupation.
Since 1963 the UN has been trying to find a new political formula for Cyprus. But it has thus far been unable to accommodate the two sides' positions, which essentially remain as they were at the end of the British colonial period.
The Annan plan, proposed in February 2003, was reluctantly accepted as the basis for a deal by Papadopoulos on behalf of Greek Cypriots but rejected by veteran Turkish-Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash, who refused to come to Burgenstock because he did not want to "be put in a corner". The plan was then shelved until January this year when Annan decided to make a final push to resolve the issue of Cyprus before the accession of the internationally recognised republic into the EU on 1 May.
Annan summoned Papadopoulos and Denktash to New York and persuaded them to negotiate the plan with the aim of securing an agreement by the end of March. Were they not to reach such an agreement, Annan would "fill in the blanks" and submit the plan to separate communal referenda on 20 April. If approved, a United Cyprus Republic would become a member of the EU. If not, however, the legitimate government of the island would join and the EU treaty would not apply to Turkish Cypriots. Meanwhile, Turkey's bid for EU accession would be postponed. Annan had hoped that the two leaders would agree to a text and his scenario would proceed smoothly. But this did not happen.
As a result, he corralled the Cypriots, Greeks and Turks at Burgenstock in order to impose his new plan, which is essentially an offshoot of the Zurich agreement, updated to accommodate physical partition. The UN and the EU were added to the original Zurich participants, while the US lurked at the sidelines. Although Britain still keeps a watchful eye over the island, today the main players on the Cypriot stage are not Greece, Turkey and the former colonial power but rather the independent Cyprus Republic on the one hand and Turkey -- which has established a protectorate in the north and tells Turkish Cypriots what to do -- on the other. Greece, which has not actively intervened in Cyprus since the disastrous attempted coup of 1974, is supporting Greek Cypriots.
During the first week of his stay UN mediator and former Peruvian diplomat, Alvaro de Soto, shuttled between the Cypriot teams with the aim of resolving outstanding provisos to the UN plan. But the Cypriots did not really manage to deal with the core issues. One diplomatic source told Al-Ahram Weekly that Annan had simply bridged the gaps between the positions of the two sides and presented them with a fait accompli. The source said that the Turkish side received 85 per cent of its demands, the Greek-Cypriot side 15 per cent.
Turkish-Cypriot informants say Ankara is celebrating but Turkish Cypriots, who want real reunification, feel let down. Judgement day will come in three weeks with the referenda.
The Annan plan preserves the territorial division of island by transforming the areas occupied by the two communities into politically equal, largely autonomous, component states connected by a weak federal structure. In theory, Cyprus should regain its territorial integrity but in practice Turkey would gain varying degrees of power in the whole of the island, not just in the north. Meanwhile, Greek and Turkish Cypriots would come together in a presidential council and bicameral parliament.
Greece and Turkey continue to act as guarantor powers. Although EU law mandates freedom of movement, residence, property ownership and employment within all member states and the bloc, exemptions will be made so that the Turkish- Cypriot state maintains its ethnic identity and is given protection from being overwhelmed by the more numerous and wealthier Greek Cypriots.
But it is Turkey's approach and actions that will make or break the Burgenstock deal. If Ankara behaves as it did after Zurich and interferes in the affairs of the Turkish Cypriots and the federal republic, the new deal will fail just as surely as the old one did.
For now the only brake on Turkey is its ambition to join the EU. If Turkey insists on playing a role in Cypriot politics, Ankara's own bid for accession into the EU could be weakened. Now, as in 1960, a deal will work only if Cyprus is permitted to follow an independent course and the Greek and Turkish Cypriots, who get along just fine, are allowed to do their own thing.


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