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Before the storm
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 27 - 02 - 2003

Cairo's view is that the Arabs need to get their act together as war looms ever closer. Nevine Khalil and Soha Abdelaty report on the diplomatic mood just moments before a hastily-prepared Arab summit convenes
Hosni Mubarak's two-stop European tour was meant to end just in time for the Egyptian president to attend an "extraordinary" Arab summit to be held in Cairo on 28 February, back-to-back with an "ordinary" Arab summit scheduled for the next day.
Within days, if not hours, however, of that announcement, the plans were scrapped, then redrafted several times over. Some sort of a consensus was finally reached, and the decision was taken to hold an "urgent" Arab summit in the Red Sea city of Sharm El-Sheikh on 1 March.
The original summit -- which had been scheduled for 25 March -- would have been a clear case of too little, too late. "In light of the great potential for war, Arab leaders had to quickly meet to close ranks," Mubarak told senior journalists on his flight home after visiting Paris and Berlin. "A meeting after a war has broken out would be meaningless."
For three months, Mubarak said, Arab leaders could not decide on when to have a summit, or what type of gathering it should be -- emergency, extraordinary, urgent or ordinary. "While other countries rallied to take action [to prevent war in the region], the Arabs stood still, as if the [Iraqi crisis] was of no concern to them," Mubarak said.
The Iraqi crisis will not be the only item on the summit's agenda; Palestine will also be discussed -- although the general feeling is that it would be more fruitful to wait until Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon forms his new government before any progress in the peace process could be hoped for.
Hours before he left Paris on Sunday, Mubarak met with Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa to confirm that a majority of Arab states had agreed to Saturday's summit. The day before, Mubarak had met with Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal, and soon after his return to Cairo, the president held a meeting with his top political aides to fine tune Egypt's agenda at the upcoming summit. According to Mubarak, "the summit should at least conclude with one united Arab voice. We cannot remain silent any longer and must show our people that we are making a concerted effort to stop the war."
For weeks, thousands of demonstrators across the Arab world have taken to the streets -- along with millions elsewhere -- to protest the war; another large demonstration is scheduled to take place at Cairo Stadium today. "All Arab peoples and governments oppose the war," Mubarak told German newspaper Der Spiegel. "Opinions diverge on Saddam Hussein; but sympathy with the Iraqi people is unanimous." Mubarak added that the summit will not discuss Saddam Hussein's abdication or exile: "It's an internal Iraqi issue and the people there should do what is in their interest."
Even as mere days remained before the "urgent" Arab summit was to take place, some Arab states were still bickering about the date. Iraq, backed by Syria, Lebanon and Jordan, announced on Monday that it wanted to postpone the summit until 14 March (a date many observers feel is too close to the anticipated start of US-led strikes against Baghdad). The reasoning for the delay was that Iraq was "busy" preparing for UN inspectors to submit their reports to the Security Council on 7 March.
Egypt, however, remained solidly unconvinced that a delay was necessary. "There's no time to waste," said Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher in reaction to the request. "Time has already been wasted." According to Maher, matters have already reached a very difficult juncture, meaning there was "no room for divisions. We have one goal, and we have to concur on the means to reach a peaceful resolution. We cannot afford any further delay."
Mubarak believes that an Arab gathering of solidarity may not "immediately stop the war machine, but we could influence the decision-makers", as he told Der Spiegel. "No Arab leader supports the war, but at the same time not one single Arab country supports Saddam; all Arabs want Iraq to be disarmed from weapons of mass destruction."
Mubarak was dismayed that Baghdad "no longer listens to any advice", especially since he believes that the only way to avert a war is for Saddam's regime to "fully cooperate" with inspectors. Mubarak also doubted that the Iraqi president would be willing to give up. "I don't think Saddam will step down, and if he does and goes into exile he will not be alone; there will be many others with him," he told the German newspaper.
Cairo also had advice for Washington, warning that if it goes to war without the support of the international community, "there will be a gradual wave of wide-spread terrorism taking horrific shapes and forms." Commenting on reports of the US's plan to "spread" democracy in the region, beginning with the toppling of Saddam's regime, Mubarak also said Washington is better advised to "find another region to spread democracy in. I doubt that a democratic regime in Iraq now will be successful".
For its part, Washington is hoping that the Arab countries will be successful in pressuring Iraq into compliance with Security Council resolutions. "There's a clear need for the most unified statement possible by all members of the international community for Iraqi compliance," US Ambassador to Cairo David Welch told Al-Ahram Weekly on Tuesday. "Any way in which that can be demonstrated would be helpful." But Welch dismissed any possibility that Washington would receive an Arab delegation with a mandate from Saturday's summit as a last ditch diplomatic effort. "The problem is in Baghdad, not in Washington," he said after meeting with Maher.
Welch met the Egyptian foreign minister in order to brief Cairo on the draft resolution, co-sponsored by the US, Britain and Spain, which was presented to the Security Council on Monday. It declares Iraq in material breach of all previous resolutions. According to Welch, the US feels certain it will get the support it needs for this resolution to pass.
The US ambassador told reporters that the draft resolution states that "enough time" has elapsed to "judge whether there has been compliance." By presenting the draft resolution now, US officials are signaling their unwillingness to wait until the upcoming UN inspectors' report. "Inspections are not the question, Iraqi compliance is," said Welch, adding that his government is not willing to give the inspectors more time.
Egyptian officials, however, are more partial to the French position of allowing inspectors more time. The French government submitted a memorandum to the Security Council on Monday calling for "continued work by the inspectors [in order to] give them the chance to continue their mission," according to Egyptian officials. In Maher's opinion, the inspectors have made progress, and therefore "it's natural [that they be given] more time to see whether more progress can be achieved."


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