The Turkish government has unexpectedly decided to launch a regional axis with Iran and Syria. Gareth Jenkins argues that the Turkish army will ensure that the initiative remains stillborn Turkey's erratic foreign policy took another unexpected turn last Sunday when Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul held a meeting in Ankara with his Iranian counterpart Kamal Kharrazi and announced that he would travel to Damascus the following week to establish a regional consultative mechanism between Turkey, Iran and Syria to discuss policy towards Iraq. The meeting between Gul and Kharrazi came just four days after a visit to Ankara by US Secretary of State Colin Powell had appeared to indicate the beginning of a thaw in relations between Ankara and Washington following the Turkish parliament's refusal on 1 March to allow US forces to transit Turkey on their way to open a second front in the war to topple Saddam Hussein and Ankara's own plans to deploy up to 40,000 Turkish troops in northern Iraq to curb Iraqi Kurdish thoughts of establishing an independent state. Washington has recently accused both Syria and Iran of providing material support to Iraqi forces in the war against the US-led coalition; while last year President George Bush famously described Iran as being a member of an "axis of evil". During last week's meeting Powell assured Gul that, in return for Turkey not increasing its already substantial military presence in northern Iraq, the US would prevent the Iraqi Kurds both either seizing control of the oilfields around Kirkuk or from carving an independent state out of post-Saddam Iraq. At a press conference after the meeting, Powell repeatedly referred to Turkey as a key US ally, while Gul described Turkey as being a member of the US-led coalition against Saddam Hussein. As payback, on Friday the US approved the allocation of $1 billion in grants to Turkey and guarantees for loans of up to $8.5 billion. "It is not just the money or loans we will get directly from the US. It will boost our credit rating and reduce our costs if we need to borrow from the international market. We can now also expect the US to use its influence to ensure that we continue to receive support from the IMF and World Bank," said a Turkish official. On Monday the IMF indicated that it would approve the release of another $700 million in loans to Turkey at its board meeting on 18 April. The Turkish financial markets responded accordingly. Stock prices rose, the Turkish lira appreciated by nearly eight per cent and bond yields dropped 14 percentage points. Gul's decision to initiate closer ties with Iran and Syria is not only likely to irritate Washington but has again raised questions about the five-month-old Justice and Development Party (JDP) government's competence and understanding of international diplomacy. Gul has long favoured closer relations with Turkey's neighbours and during the mid 1990s often peppered his speeches with plans to establish what he described as a "commonwealth" of "former Ottoman provinces". But JDP officials are also aware that US support is vital if Turkey is to avoid an economic recession. Under such circumstances, it is hard to understand why Turkey has chosen such a time to initiate closer ties with the two countries in the region that have been harshly criticised by the US. It has been suggested that Gul's main objective is to seek the cooperation of Syria and Iran in order to prevent the break up of Iraq following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. At a press conference on Sunday Kharrazi stated: "Stability in Iraq is only possible with support from the neighbours of Iraq. Iran is in favour of the territorial integrity of Iraq." But seeking support from Iran and Syria to prevent the establishment of an independent state in northern Iraq also implies that Gul does not trust the pledges made by Powell just a few days earlier. Gul's initiative is also likely to have antagonised the powerful Turkish military, which makes little secret of its disdain for the Iranian regime and still has not forgiven Damascus for allowing the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) to use Syria as a base during its 15 year armed campaign for greater cultural rights for Turkey's own Kurdish minority. Even though the Turkish military remains very concerned about the possibility of the Iraqi Kurds declaring independence, it is convinced that Turkey should try to work with the US to try to prevent the break up of Iraq or, as a last resort, act alone rather than with Iran or Syria. "It is meaningless to talk of a Turkey-Iran-Syrian axis," said a source close to the Turkish military. "The US is our ally and our main supplier of military equipment. It is not just that we don't trust Iran or Syria, they simply aren't an alternative. When it comes to northern Iraq, we'll work with the Americans or go it alone. And nothing this government says will change that."
