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Touring the road to peace
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 01 - 05 - 2003

Whether on Iraq or Palestine, the US has made it clear that it alone will name the rules of the game, Khaled Dawoud reports from Washington
In his tour of Arab Gulf states this week, United States Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld announced the first step of his vision for a new Middle East region after the downfall of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. The US will withdraw its troops from Saudi Arabia -- its long-standing ally in the oil-rich region -- and move the headquarters of its air operations centre from Riyadh to Doha, Qatar. The US has also announced plans to reduce its presence in Kuwait and Turkey.
Although US and Saudi officials sought to downplay the move, saying that the ousting of the Iraqi regime, and the threat it posed to its neighbours, made the presence of US troops unnecessary, Rumsfeld's announcement sent shockwaves through the region and the US itself. The first question raised by American commentators about the decision was whether it could be construed as surrender to Al- Qa'eda leader Osama Bin Laden -- the presence of US troops in the land of the holy cities of Medina and Mecca was cited by him as the prime reason for attacks against US targets.
But US plans to maintain a military presence in Iraq for the next two to three years means "Rumm's" troops would never be far, and are simply seeking a place where they "feel more welcomed", according to one Pentagon official. Insisting that they went to Iraq as "liberators", US officials say they are certain that most Iraqis would welcome their presence.
The US plans to redeploy its troops will not only be limited to the Middle East. Pentagon officials also announced they were considering plans for opening bases in Eastern European countries, who proved to be staunch allies of the world's superpower in stark contrast to "old Europe" -- many Americans were surprised by the lack of European gratitude for American support during World War II.
In general, the US military plans for a post- Saddam region will simply seek to implement President George Bush's doctrine of being either with the US or with the devil. Analysts maintain that the hardliners who dominate the Bush administration believe they no longer need the support of those who opposed the war on Iraq -- including the United Nations -- believing also that the US can fulfil its objectives with the support of its "coalition of the willing".
Following the same logic, it became evident this week that the US alone will determine the political future of Iraq and the shape of its government. Despite "open discussions" held in Baghdad on Monday with hundreds of Iraqis on their future government, it appeared that the US had its own plans, made long before the start of the war. A team of exiled Iraqis accompanied by Deputy Secretary of Defence Paul Wolfowitz started heading towards Iraq with the aim of assuming office in major Iraqi ministries until a transitional government has been formed. According to US officials, however, these figures -- almost 150 people who left Iraq in the 1970s and 1980s -- will be there to stay.
And while Rumsfeld tours the Gulf region, paying a victory visit to Baghdad, US Secretary of State Colin Powell will start a mini- tour of the region today to deliver the same message, but in more diplomatic terms. Surprising observers, Powell's three-day itinerary that was long kept secret, included only Spain, Albania, Syria and Lebanon. Powell will not make a long-awaited visit to the occupied Palestinian territories and Israel to mark the resumption of the peace process; US officials said this visit could be made a week later. A statement issued by State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher said that Powell would visit the Palestinian territories and Israel after the new government of Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas has been approved by the Palestinian Legislative Council on Tuesday. The move was seen as putting additional pressure on the Palestinians, and Abu Mazen in particular, to start an immediate crackdown on militant Palestinian organisations, namely Hamas and Jihad. Powell will also seek to bring increased pressure on Palestinians and Arab countries to stop dealing with Palestinian President Yasser Arafat, providing support instead for Abu Mazen. In an interview last week, Bush said he was looking forward to inviting Abu Mazen and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to the White House soon to affirm commitment to the implementation of the roadmap that seeks to create an independent Palestinian state by 2005.
But although the roadmap was laid out jointly by Russia, the European Union, the UN and the US -- the so-called International Quartet -- US officials said Washington was expected to play the central role in monitoring its implementation and evaluating its progress. Like the situation in Iraq -- and in response to pressure by Sharon -- the US wants to limit European and international participation to providing "humanitarian assistance" to Palestinians.
Commenting on his trip to Damascus, US State Department officials said that Powell would praise Syria's "increasing" cooperation with the US after accusations were made by senior US officials that Syria was allegedly harbouring leading figures of the former Iraqi regime.
Powell will seek more Syrian cooperation not only with regard to Iraq, and will also reiterate Washington's concern over Damascus' continued support for militant organisations, namely Lebanon's Hizbullah and Palestine's Hamas and Jihad. Officials here believe that Syria has already got the message, recognising the new realities within the region after the downfall of Iraq, and likely to be more cooperative with Washington. A pro-Israel Congressman who visited Damascus this week, Tom Lantos, said on Monday that Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad indicated "a willingness to meet with Sharon to discuss peace". He added that he relayed the message to Israeli officials after his meetings in Damascus.
In an interview with The Washington Times on Tuesday, Deputy Secretary of Defence Wolfowitz said that the ousting of the former Iraqi regime has had a "shaming effect" on the Arab and Muslim world controlled by authoritarian governments. "I think that already to some extent the magnitude of the crimes of that regime and those images of people pulling down a statue and celebrating the arrival of American troops is having a shaming effect throughout the region." Referring to Syria and Iran, the leading figure in Bush's team of hardliners added, "In terms of the larger picture, I think they are, like several other countries, on a sort of dead-end course." He added that while political changes were more likely in Iran, "Syria is a pretty tightly regimented place and less obviously open to political change. But that doesn't mean it can't change. In this modern world no country is immune, except maybe North Korea, to information from the outside." Wolfowitz said he hoped "there are people within that regime who can understand that they're on a dead-end course. Whether they can persuade President Bashar Al-Assad to change it is a different matter."


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