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The plot thickens
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 10 - 07 - 2003

Until Saddam is found, dead or alive, the war in Iraq cannot be considered over, writes Salah Hemeid
In two messages broadcast this week a speaker claiming to be Saddam Hussein urged Iraqis to rally behind anti-US resistance and promised "days of hardship" for the Americans. In the first taped message the speaker claimed to be in Iraq, "among my people", with a small group of "comrades". The voice said he had been forced to "sacrifice the government as United State's troops moved to occupy Iraq". The speaker castigated Washington and its justification for the war, asking "where are these weapons of mass destruction?"
The broadcast of the first tape, by the Qatar-based television station Al-Jazeera on Friday, coincided with an escalation in violence against US forces. Thirty American soldiers have been killed in two weeks. Dozens of Iraqis have also been killed or wounded in attacks.
In the second tape, aired on Tuesday by both Al-Jazeera and Lebanese LBC television, the voice said: "I urge you, Iraqis, Arabs, Kurds and Turkomen, Shi'ites or Sunni, Christians or Muslims, it is your duty to expel the invaders from our country."
The two tapes, as well as a third sent to the Sydney Morning Herald in May, and at least three letters published earlier by the London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi newspaper, have sparked new controversy over whether the deposed leader is alive or dead, and over whether he and his supporters are behind the attacks on US troops.
Iraqis familiar with Saddam's speeches said the voice sounded like that of the former president. The recording, which was sent by telephone to the Al-Jazeera satellite network, could provide the first piece of solid evidence that Saddam survived the US-led invasion.
The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) said on Monday that the voice on the tape was probably that of Saddam. CIA Spokesman Bill Harlow said a technical analysis carried out by the agency had concluded that the recorded voice tape was most likely Saddam's but that the poor quality of the recording made it impossible to say for certain. Supporters of Saddam have reportedly been telling Iraqis that the former leader is preparing a comeback, and that those who cooperated with US forces would be punished.
US officials insist the attacks on Americans are not centrally organised but say the mystery surrounding Saddam's fate is being used to the advantage of anti-US elements. Opponents of the former president maintain that even if he is alive Saddam is no longer a relevant figure in Iraq and that sooner or later he will be found and brought to justice.
Washington has placed a bounty of $25 million on Saddam's head and has offered $15 million for information leading to the capture of either of his sons. The last reported sighting of Saddam was on 9 April in the Azamiyah neighbourhood of northeastern Baghdad.
Insurgents have been staging ambushes against US forces for weeks and the recent escalation in attacks has raised fears of a political and military quagmire just two months after President Bush declared an end to major combat on 1 May. US officials say that capturing Saddam and his sons is essential if security is to prevail in Iraq.
As violence grows and the debate over Saddam's fate continues Washington is coming under increasing pressure to make good on its pre-war promises. Prominent Iraqi political figures have informed Paul Bremer, US chief administrator in Iraq, that they will not be satisfied with a consultative role in the interim council to be set up soon. Speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly Hamid Al-Bayati, spokesman for the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, said most political groups had already informed Bremer they would not take part in any such council.
Sergio Vieira de Mello, UN special envoy to Iraq, has revealed that Bremer has agreed to change tack to accommodate the demands of Iraqi political groups. The Brazilian diplomat said Bremer will unveil plans for a "transitory governing council" with "real executive powers", marking Iraq's first step towards democracy after Saddam's 24-year one- party rule within two weeks.
Candidates for the 20-member council are currently being sounded out though no one will be named directly by the coalition despite the fact that Washington has reserved the right to monitor the process. All groups, including minorities, will be represented on the council, and three or four women are expected to be appointed. The majority of the council will be Shi'ite, Vieira de Mello said, adding that the council will appoint ministers and diplomats to represent Iraq abroad. The main Iraqi political groups which supported the US in toppling Saddam welcomed the move, saying they were prepared to join the interim government but were seeking greater powers under the occupation authority.
But before the rebuilding of Iraq can begin the mystery surrounding the fate of Saddam must first be solved. Fears that Saddam may return to take up the reins of power again will only be quelled by his capture or death.


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