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Blaine and Blair
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 18 - 09 - 2003

Tony Blair has spent the last few weeks in excruciatingly public view, looking ever more boxed in, reports Alistair Alexander from London
The American magician David Blaine has spent the last two weeks in a perspex box suspended above the Thames in London, hoping to remain there for 44 days without food. But Blaine has been somewhat taken aback that, instead of gazing up in starstruck awe, the British public is hurling abuse, eggs and worse at him.
Prime Minister Blair -- that other great illusionist -- must know all too well how he feels. Like Blaine, Blair has spent the last few weeks exposed, looking ever more boxed in. And, even from his lofty position, Blair can see the mood of the public below getting angrier.
It has not been a good few weeks for this government. After an accomplished performance at the Hutton Inquiry, things for Blair have been going from bad to worse. The week following the prime minister's appearance proved to be the most devastating yet for the government's defence of its treatment of Dr David Kelly, the government scientist who was found dead after being revealed as the source for the BBC "sexed-up" dossier report.
After a procession of government officials blithely told the inquiry that Dr Kelly was perfectly happy with his treatment, Dr Kelly's widow provided a starkly different -- and chillingly credible -- version of events. In heart-rending detail, she revealed her husband's anguish and sense of betrayal when his department went back on its assurances to him and leaked his name to the media. She recounted vividly the sense of terrifying menace as both the State and the press turned their attention towards the scientist. Fleeing their home as journalists who Dr Kelly had considered his friends were tracking them down, Mrs Kelly recalled how her husband withdrew completely into himself, unable to speak.
After weeks of the Hutton Inquiry poring over official processes and dry government procedure, Mrs Kelly revealed the human cost of the government's actions to that body. She also presented a direct challenge to the government's version of events.
Mrs Kelly's testimony was swiftly followed by two senior intelligence officials who proceeded to demolish the case the government had presented in their September 2002 dossier on Iraq. One, Dr Brian Jones, called the dossier "over-egged".
"My concerns were that Iraq's chemical weapons and biological weapon capabilities were not being accurately represented in all regards in relation to the available evidence," he said.
The other official, who was referred to as Mr A, revealed the extent to which Dr Kelly had been involved in producing the dossier. In an e-mail to Dr Kelly, Mr A wrote: "You and I should have been more involved in this than the spin merchants in this administration."
Throughout the inquiry, Blair's inner circle have maintained they were not aware of any disquiet in the intelligence services. And yet both these officials had expressed their concerns and were certainly senior enough to make themselves heard.
The Hutton Inquiry recessed last week prior to recalling some witnesses. But that offered little respite to the government. On 11 September, the Parliamentary Intelligence and Security Committee (ISC) published the report of its own inquiry into the dossier. Their verdict pulled its punches; it is, after all, a committee that answers -- usually in secret -- to the prime minister. As expected, the report cleared Alastair Campbell, Blair's former spokesman and the central figure both in producing the September dossier and in the "outing" of Dr Kelly. Campbell will, however, be facing a cross-examination from Lord Hutton which promises to be less sympathetic.
But the ISC were less than impressed with Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon, the minister to whom Dr Kelly answered. After a dismal performance before the Hutton Inquiry in which he virtually denied any involvement in the naming of Dr Kelly, the ISC admonished him for being "unhelpful and potentially misleading" by failing to disclose to them concerns among intelligence officials about the September dossier.
Over the past few weeks Hoon has increasingly had the look of a dead man walking. Tellingly, the sections in the report about Hoon were leaked to the media before its release, fuelling speculation that Downing Street has long since decided on Hoon as a sacrificial lamb.
Certainly his position is now untenable, but he hasn't been forced out just yet. It would seem that the government wishes to keep him swinging in the wind until the Hutton Inquiry concludes; after all, if he goes too early, the media's attention might turn to someone else.
More damaging for Blair was the revelation that prior to military action he was briefed by the intelligence officials that invading Iraq would increase the threat of terrorism rather than reduce it. Not only did this briefing flatly contradict what Blair told Parliament, it was also one of the rare assessments of British intelligence that has since proven to be correct.
So far, the allegations on this particular strand of alleged deception have been damaging but not terminally so. When pressed on Iraq's lack of weapons of mass destruction the government urges people to wait for the Coalition's Iraq Survey Group to publish their findings. But it could be a very long wait.
Recent reports suggests that their initial report, originally due to be published very soon, has been shelved until further notice.
The next few weeks will be just as difficult for Blair as the last two months have been. The Hutton Inquiry's conclusions will be damaging for the prime minister, but are unlikely to force him out of office. Instead he will hang onto power, with his credibility and authority drastically diminished.
Government officials publicly talk of the Labour Party conference in two weeks time as an opportunity for the prime minister to relaunch himself and his government. Privately, they are dreading the contempt of livid Labour Party members.
So if Blair ever finds himself around Tower Bridge, he could well be looking up wistfully at Blaine, starving, cold and exposed in his box. After all, Blaine can leave his box after 44 days. Blair is unlikely to escape scrutiny so quickly.


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