Recent discussions between India and Kashmiri separatists are yet another step towards peace in the region, writes Iffat Idris from Islamabad A common misconception of the Kashmir issue is that it is just one dispute: between India and Pakistan. In fact, the international dispute over the state of Jammu and Kashmir is just one aspect of the Kashmir issue, the other being the internal ethnic conflict between Kashmiri Muslims in Indian-held Kashmir and the Indian government. While there has been a degree of convergence and overlap between these two disputes, they remain essentially distinct. The past few months, particularly the recent South Asian Agreement on Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Summit in Islamabad in January, have seen great progress towards stabilisation of the bilateral dispute between India and Pakistan. The two sides are scheduled to start a composite dialogue on all issues in February, including the Jammu and Kashmir conflict. Last week, however, also saw reciprocal progress on the internal ethnic front of the Kashmir conflict. An armed separatist movement has been active in Indian-held Kashmir since 1989. The movement was launched over grievances about the lack of political freedom, rigging of elections, and the lack of jobs and economic opportunities for Kashmiri Muslims. These frustrations fed into a long-standing anger over the Indian government's refusal to allow Kashmiris the right to self-determination and the right to decide the future of their state. Kashmiri separatists were inspired by the example of the Afghan mujahidin ousting the Soviets from Afghanistan, and by the wider rise of political Islam. Indian authorities responded to the separatist challenge with a hard-line policy: tens of thousands of army, paramilitary and police forces were deployed in the Kashmiri valley -- the primary focus of the movement -- to crush the separatists. Harsh measures, including widespread abuse of human rights, were employed. Far from crushing the movement, however, the Indian government's policy instead incited greater hatred of Indian rule among Kashmiri Muslims -- and, by extension, a stronger resolve to secede from India. Pakistan got involved, providing financial and logistic support to the Kashmiri fighters. The result was a stalemate in which Kashmiris were unable to wrestle their freedom from India, and India was unable to crush the movement. Thousands of ordinary Kashmiris were killed in the process. The current change in the situation is largely a consequence of the attacks of 11 September. Pakistan's cooperation with the United Sates forced it to stop its support for Kashmiri fighters and to prevent infiltration across the Line of Control separating Indian-held Kashmir from Pakistan-held Kashmir. Kashmiri separatists were forced to face the prospect of never being able to win their freedom from Indian rule. Confronted with a choice between idealism: go on fighting no matter what the odds, and pragmatism: reach the best deal they can with India through negotiations, many have opted for the latter. It is against this backdrop that historic talks took place this week between leaders of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), the umbrella organisation of Kashmiri political parties, and the Indian government. On 22 January, APHC leaders met with Indian Deputy Prime Minister Lal K Advani -- the first official contact between the two sides since August 2000. After a meeting that lasted two and a half hours, a joint statement announced agreement on the need to end all forms of violence, and to hold another round of talks in March. "It was agreed that the only way forward is to ensure that all forms of violence at all levels should come to an end," the joint statement read. "The deputy prime minister endorsed the All Parties Hurriyat Conference's view that the role of the gun should be replaced by the sound of politics." Adding to this joint statement, L K Advani said that the Indian government's "foremost concern [was] to safeguard the security of all peoples and to ensure against the violation of their rights". The next day saw a second historic meeting, this time between the Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and APHC leaders. This was not scheduled in the original programme and its inclusion indicates how well the meeting between the APHC and the deputy prime minister went. In Friday's meeting, described as "a courtesy call" by Indian officials, the APHC endorsed Prime Minister Vajpayee's peace initiative with Pakistan. "We had come here to thank the prime minister for the initiative he has taken in search of peace, in search of a solution to the Kashmir problem," said Mirwaiz Umer Farooq, one of the senior APHC leaders and its former chairman. The mood in New Delhi was very positive, but no one is underestimating the difficulties that lie ahead in resolving the conflict in Indian-held Kashmir and addressing the grievances of Kashmiri Muslims. The Srinagar Times, a Kashmiri paper, declared that "Indications are that nothing substantial will emerge from talks, though both sides will express their intention to continue with discussions." One obstacle that was immediately apparent was that not all Kashmiri Muslims endorse the dialogue process with New Delhi. The APHC is itself divided into two factions: a moderate faction led by Maulana Abbas Ansari, which met the Indian leaders, and a breakaway hard-line faction led by Syed Ali Gilani. He condemned the talks as "an Indian conspiracy to hoodwink the international community about the Kashmir issue". Gilani maintains that any talks over Kashmir must be tripartite, meaning talks must involve India, the Kashmiris and Pakistan. What happens next with the dialogue process started in New Delhi depends to a large extent on two factors: progress in the Indian-Pakistani talks, and the Indian government offering something concrete to the Kashmiris. The latter includes genuine efforts by the Indian government to curb human rights abuses by its forces; investigation of at least some abuses and punishment of offenders and the injection of funds for economic development in the state. If the moderate APHC faction can show these dividends to the Kashmiri people, Kashmiris could be persuaded to give up their separatist movement. The announcement by the Chief Minister of Indian Kashmir Mufti Saeed, on Saturday that "Nearly 18 political prisoners will be released today and more will be released later on Republic Day [26 January]" is a welcome move in this direction. But if talks prove to be simply a pretext for India to weaken the movement, giving nothing in return, fighting will inevitably flare up again. Kashmir is truly poised between peace and more conflict.
