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What next for Sudan?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 17 - 06 - 2004

Mahmoud Morad speaks with Sudan's first vice president about the country's future
Ali Othman Mohamed Taha, Sudan's first vice president, is the man who negotiated the peace agreement with John Garang in Nivasha, Nairobi, two weeks ago. When he told President Omar Al- Bashir of his wish to resign, saying that he had accomplished a historical mission and is at the disposal of his country, Al-Bashir told Taha that he will be needed in the coming phase, as the country's second vice president.
"I do not seek power," Taha told Al- Ahram Weekly. "All I want is for all political forces to come together and act for the common good. The peace agreement must succeed, and remain successful until such a time as self- determination confirms Sudan's unity."
The first vice president betrayed little of the exhaustion that follows nine months of intense negotiations. Nor did it end with the signing. Taha then went on to hold meetings in Khartoum, then travel to Cairo. He is also scheduled to visit Libya and Saudi Arabia.
So where is the peace heading? What are the next steps?
Taha is due to meet with Garang again on 22 June to discuss security arrangements. The aim is to turn the end of hostilities, agreed upon in October 2002, into a permanent ceasefire, and to discuss the implementation of the agreement's clauses concerning the size, armaments and status of military units.
There will be 12,000 southern troops deployed in the north and an equal number of government troops deployed in the south. Joint units from both sides will be placed under a joint command. Northern commanders will have southern deputies and southern commanders will have northern ones.
The next round of talks will tackle armaments, areas of deployment and the location and size of the southern army. The talks are expected to last for two weeks and technical and military committees are already debating the issues. Political talks will then follow to determine the allocation of central government posts and the status of the interim parliament. These could last up to three weeks.
By the first week of August the two sides should have reached agreement over a raft of security and political issues which will then be annexed to the agreement signed on 5 June. At some point in August a signing ceremony is expected to be held in Nairobi in the presence of the Sudanese president, the Kenyan president, and leaders from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and neighbouring and concerned countries.
September will see the beginning of the preparatory stage, which will see President Al-Bashir appoint John Garang as first vice president, and Ali Othman Taha as second vice president. Following the appointments a new government will be formed with ministers drawn from across Sudan. Meanwhile, Garang will set up the southern government, which he will head. Garang is expected to reside in Khartoum and appoint a military deputy to lead the southern Army.
But does this mean Garang will head the southern government and army alone while simultaneously holding the post of first vice president? And in the event the Sudanese president travels, or is otherwise unavailable, will Garang then take over his responsibilities, including command of the entire army?
The two sides, Taha says, have agreed on an even-handed formula according to which, in the event of the absence of the president, his military authority as supreme commander will pass to the second vice president.
The preparatory phase is expected to last for six months during which the president will dissolve parliament (the National Council), appoint an interim council in consultation with all parties and forces, suspend the current constitution (introduced in 1998), form a committee to draft a temporary constitution (or constitutional declaration) and form the constitutional courts. All these measures should be implemented by February 2005, at which point the interim period will begin.
This should see the holding of full parliamentary elections. The president will remain in office. At the end of the transitional period a referendum will be held in the south, allowing southerners to either secede or stay within the country.
Northerners who attended the talks in Nivasha, initially suspicious of Garang's intentions, now believe he wants Sudan to remain united. Garang has said more than once that he wants unity, but what matters to him is the type of unity.
"We are all keen on unity and on benefiting from the lessons of the past," says Taha. "We don't want a setback. We don't want things to deteriorate. This is our last chance and we have to grab it. This is why we call on all political forces and parties to rise to the occasion. I have had a good reaction from Mohamed Othman Al-Marghani, who told me that he will return to Khartoum after tending to some business. I and my colleagues sense goodwill from many politicians."
There is a special role for Egypt and the Arabs in the development and growth of Sudan. President Hosni Mubarak told Sudan's first vice president that Egyptian Sudanese must keep abreast of developments in Sudan. The Sudanese delegation, for its part, expressed their wish to see relations improve, noting that the two countries have ratified agreements concerning the freedom of travel, work, residence and ownership. There is ample opportunity for greater cooperation in agriculture, industry, riparian transport, pharmaceuticals, education and training.


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