The cycle of violence in Saudi Arabia is merely a symptom of the broader chaotic region, writes Diaa Rashwan* The abduction and execution of a citizen of the United States by a group affiliated with Al-Qaeda is a bloody reminder that violence in the Saudi kingdom is escalating rather than abating. The brutality of the murder may have been unprecedented but the incident did not occur out of the blue. The attack on a Western oil company in Yanbu in the west of Saudi Arabia came only 10 days after the bombing of the General Security Department building in Riyadh. A week later, a residential compound for Westerners in Al-Khobar in the east of the kingdom was attacked and a number of its residents were taken hostage and killed. The attacks are becoming more ferocious as well as widespread. The violence started nearly a decade ago with attacks centred in the areas surrounding Riyadh and Al-Khobar. Back then, however, the US military presence was targeted, the assailants invariably using car bombs detonated by timers or remote control for these attacks. But this most recent wave of violence started with the bombings of residential complexes in Riyadh in May 2003, spreading out to other parts of the kingdom including Mecca and Medina, Yanbu on the Red Sea coast and Al-Khobar in the east. The targets are now a mix of residential areas, Saudi security installations as well as oil and industrial companies. The militants favour suicide car bombings and direct attacks with explosives and light-to medium-calibre weapons. The taking and killing of hostages is becoming more common and the number of casualties and fatalities is rising. Is this a trend, or is the violence likely to abate? This wave of violence in Saudi Arabia emerged in the post-September 2001 era and bears all the hallmarks of those attacks. Since September 2001, the US has been waging a "war on terror", blending security, military and economic-based measures with the extreme right- wing vision of the US administration. According to this vision, the war on terror cannot be considered over until the world order has been restructured in a way that makes Washington its sole leader. According to this vision, Islamic countries and societies will have to follow a US-approved economic, social and political model. Which is what the "Greater Middle East" project is all about. The implementation of this vision so far has spawned invasion, occupation and chaos in Afghanistan and Iraq. The US vision for the post- September era has also underwritten Israeli policies and practices of unprecedented cruelty against Palestinians as people, their national authority, and the resistance to occupation movement. These policies and practices have pushed the Palestinian issue and the Arab-Israeli conflict as a whole to the brink of the abyss; to a point of volatility unseen except ahead of major Arab-Israeli wars. In this context of military, intellectual and political confrontation, chaos has spread on the international scene, especially in the Arab world. The instability and chaos are more intense in the Arab world as a result of US and Israeli occupations and because of deep- seated domestic problems concerning political conditions, economic growth, as well as cultural, religious and ethnic expression. Violence is only one symptom of instability. The dispute over reform and the bickering among ruling regimes -- so evident during the recent Arab summit -- are other symptoms. To sum up, the violence and terror that is spreading within Saudi Arabia is not an isolated phenomenon. It may have local characteristics, but it is not an isolated occurrence within the context of chaos in the region. And it is not just a Saudi phenomenon, regardless of the domestic factors that may have made things worse. It is no coincidence that the four countries neighbouring Iraq -- Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria -- have been subject to unprecedented attacks or threats, or have launched comprehensive anti- terror operations, of late. Iraq's fifth neighbour, Iran, may be next. The future of violence and terror in Saudi Arabia is closely linked with the regional and international situation, which is not improving. There is no sign yet that the US administration or the Israeli government is about to change their minds in the medium term (three-five years). There is no sign that the US will abandon its wish to reshape the world or that Israel will abandon its desire to re-arrange the region. More likely, both countries are likely to use their future success or failure as a pretext to harden their views. Therefore, despite all the efforts made by Saudi Arabia and other Arab and Islamic countries to fight terror and violence, the current trend is likely to continue. * The writer is an expert at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.
