What future lies in store for Saudi Arabia in light of recent violence, asks Sherine Bahaa The campaign of organised violence in Saudi Arabia is no longer directed at Westerners exclusively. Ever more, it seems, the real target is the state itself. The first warning shot came last November when 17 people died in a residential compound reserved for Arab families. The compound was on the doorstep of one of the royal palaces in Riyadh. The truck bombing of the police headquarters in Riyadh in April was a further signal, followed by attacks in Yanbu in May on a petrochemical company that left seven dead, including Saudis. Since May 2003, attacks by Al- Qaeda loyalists have resulted in 85 deaths and more than 300 wounded, with Saudis and Muslims among the casualties. Following the shocking hostage incident in Al-Khobar 12 days ago which left 22 dead -- the first ever hostage drama to grip the kingdom -- the Saudi security apparatus reacted swiftly and severely; more than 600 suspects have been rounded up, and nine key figures on a wanted list of 29 have been gunned down. These efforts by Saudi authorities, however, do not seem enough. Indeed, according to some, they may even have been counter-productive. According to Torki Hammad, a US-educated Saudi psychologist, the reaction of insurgents "became frequent, diverse and hard hitting; they left all options wide open. They wanted to launch a street war-like confrontation." Indeed, the frequency of attacks appears to be increasing. Little over a week after Al-Khobar, gunmen shot and wounded a BBC correspondent and killed his Irish cameraman. It was the fourth violent incident in five weeks and the first to target journalists. The cameraman and correspondent were in the ultra- conservative Al-Suweidi area of Riyadh, a hotbed of Al-Qaeda ideology, when a vehicle drove past and opened fire. This low-income neighbourhood of southern Riyadh has been the scene of numerous confrontations between government forces and militants. Then, on Tuesday, Robert Jacobs, who worked for the US defence contractor Vinnell, a unit of Northrop Grumman Corporation, was shot and killed in his home in the Al-Khalij district of Riyadh. Among other things, Vinnell is helping to train the Saudi National Guard -- the ruling monarchy's elite protection force. It is difficult to ascertain if these most recent attacks were politically or religiously motivated. In an attempt to respond, Saudi Arabia's highest religious authority -- a government-backed committee -- issued an edict stating it was every citizen's moral duty to inform on suspected militants. This edict contrasted sharply with the prevailing government policy during the 1980s when thousands of Saudis were encouraged to travel to Afghanistan to join a US and Saudi- financed Islamic insurgency against Soviet occupation forces, many attending Osama Bin Laden's training camps. "We cannot lay the whole blame on those groups; we have to assume a measure of responsibility too ... We were involved in mobilising the people 30 years ago with this kind of discourse; we participated in the militarisation of our youth," says Hammad. Mashari Zayadi, a former Al-Qaeda strongman, concurs. "Al-Qaeda used to propagate a fundamental type of discourse that was widely circulating in the Saudi public," he told Al- Ahram Weekly. The problem now is that this unifying discourse has fragmented across tens of discreet, militant groups. "We have to differentiate between actual members of Al-Qaeda and those who simply adopt the mottoes of the organisation without being members of the group," Zayadi says. A recent statement purported to be from Al-Qaeda and posted on the Internet said the organisation depends on cells that function with "organisational cohesion" while maintaining relative autonomy. What, then, is the common currency of these insurgent groups? "They want the Talibanisation of Saudi society," Hammad states bluntly. Whereas some observers argue that attacks relate to the failure of authorities to embrace an agenda of reform, Hammad disagrees. "Reform means democracy and they do not understand democracy ... These are simply PR initiatives to widen their popular base and elicit sympathy as 'freedom fighters'." As to regional factors underpinning a seeming surge in hatred towards the West, while the US-led illegal war on Iraq clearly has had a galvanising effect, other regional conflicts are not new. "The Palestinian tragedy began more than 50 years ago," Hammad insists. Accordingly, the real objective -- at least to Hammad's mind -- is to establish a Taliban-like state in the oil-rich Arabian Peninsula. Hence the shift in tactics from attacks targeting Westerners in and of themselves to attacks that have collateral effects on the security of the kingdom as a whole. "I believe they might even resort to suicidal operations at trade malls ... so long as it would help in destabilising the country," opines Hammad. Many observers believe the escalation of violence is an attempt to cleanse Saudi society of Westerners, many of whom hold key positions in the country's big businesses. But the ultimate hope is to destabilise the Saudi economy. "Hitting a country's economy is one way to turn the people against their rulers," notes Hammad. "The one positive thing about these attacks is that it highlights the need for real reform in the real sense of the word -- cultural, economic and radical political reform," Hammad adds. Meanwhile, many expatriate workers -- seemingly caught in a struggle between the Saudi state and domestic insurgents -- are unsure as to whether they should stay or leave the country. One only has to kill one in order to terrorise thousands. Fears were not quelled by a statement posted on an Islamic Web site threatening to attack Western airlines and places frequented by Westerners in the Arabian Peninsula. "The residential compounds, the bases and means of transportation of the crusaders, especially Western and US airlines, will be the direct target of our next operations," the statement read.
