Australia returns its right-wing government much to the consternation of the anti-war constituency, writes Damien Kingsbury from Melbourne Australia has returned its conservative coalition government for a fourth term, with an increased majority for the second election running. The election, held on Saturday 9 October, also strengthened the government in the Senate, appearing to give it control of the Upper House for the first time, with the support of a conservative religious Senate member. The election between the conservative Liberal and National Party coalition and the moderate left Australian Labour Party was fought primarily on the issue of economic management. Australia has enjoyed relatively strong, steady economic growth under the John Howard-led government for the past eight years. At the same time, household debt has increased to record levels, which affected many swinging voters. The government's election campaign primarily focussed on a claim that the opposition was more likely to implement policies that would force interest rates to rise. To make the point the government referred to Australia's high interest rates under the previous Labour government of Paul Keating and to current Labour leader Mark Latham's lack of economic experience. With so many swinging voters having such a high level of personal debt, any increase in interest rates would impact directly on their ability to meet repayments, especially on the loans for their much prized suburban homes. Beyond Australia, there was a perception that this election would be a referendum on Australia's controversial involvement in the Iraq war. However, despite the war being a hot issue prior to the election campaign, neither side pursued this as a major election issue. The government played down Australian involvement in Iraq because it is a sufficiently unpopular war to cost votes, especially with the continuing revelations about the falsehood of the reasons for going to war, including the by now infamous reference to "weapons of mass destruction". Australian Prime Minister Howard refused to apologise for this, though, claiming that he had acted on the best advice available at the time. The opposition also played down this issue, following Labour leader Latham's gaffe where he was asked if, elected as prime minister, he would bring Australian troops back from Iraq by Christmas. Latham said he would do so, immediately putting himself at odds with Australia's closest ally, the United States, and locking him into a promise that would be difficult to keep. Since Australia's presence is limited to less than 1,000 troops in Iraq and because no Australians have yet been killed, the conflict has been viewed with some distance in Australia. Thus, despite the bombing of the Australian Embassy in Jakarta at the height of the campaign, international issues played virtually no role in the outcome of the election. This was in contrast to the last election campaign, which was fought over "security" issues, including stopping asylum-seekers from entering Australia via boats from Indonesia. One issue which did divide the government and the opposition was the environment, in particular opposition support for the Kyoto Agreement on climate change, and support for protecting old growth forests from continued logging, particularly in Tasmania. While attracting "green" voters, this policy also alienated voters connected to the timber industry in key marginal seats, which led to their loss and thus made more difficult the job of securing government. The government had refused to sign the Kyoto Agreement, citing its potential impact on Australian industry and hence economic growth and jobs. It also offered a modest programme for protecting old growth forests, claiming it was more concerned with protecting employment. This policy achieved considerable support from conservative workers who would otherwise have been considered traditional Labour supporters. It is said in Australia that oppositions do not win elections, but that governments lose them. When Australia went to the polls, the government appeared stable, producing economic growth and sound economic management. Australians were largely wealthier than they had ever been, even if their material comforts were balanced against high personal debt. John Howard came to office eight years ago with a desire to recreate for Australians the social and economic certainties of the 1950s and early 1960s, and was successful at persuading a majority that this desire has been fulfilled. What was not mentioned, though, was that this supine conservatism also breeds complacency. Exactly 40 years ago, social commentator Donald Horne described Australian conservative complacency at its good fortune in a book ironically entitled The Lucky Country. That book was intended to spark awareness of a need for change, yet it -- or the term -- was ultimately taken as self-congratulation. As a further ironic twist, Horne was writing about an Australia that was led by the long-serving Prime Minister Robert Menzies. Menzies has long been Howard's political icon, one whom he has consistently tried to emulate. With his fourth election victory, in two months, Howard will become Australia's second longest serving prime minister after Menzies.
