No matter who becomes Indonesia's president, he or she will have to come to grips with the country's economic woes and ethnic tensions, writes Damien Kingsbury* from Jakarta It was little surprise that the former Lieutenant-General Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was returned as the most favoured candidate in the first round of Indonesia's presidential elections on Monday, even if his vote was well below the most recent polls. But in Indonesian politics, things are not always how they appear. What is of interest now, with the final results from the first round becoming clear, is how candidates in third, fourth and fifth place in the poll will allocate their support. It is this, more than anything else, that is likely to determine who will become Indonesia's next president. Yudhoyono was polling at around 45 per cent prior to Monday, but now seems to have secured around 33.5 per cent of the final tally. This means that despite some predictions of an outright victory in the first round, Yudhoyono will have to go to Indonesia's second presidential round in September with a good, but not a commanding lead. Yudhoyono's slippage reflected his lack of reach into the villages, where most voters still live. This is because Yudhoyono does not control a party machine that can match either former General Wiranto's Golkar -- the party of former president Suharto -- or Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). It was also widely expected that the incumbent, , would lose votes in this election. This assumption was based on the polls but, more importantly, on the results of April's legislative elections. The latest results showed her just over 26 per cent, now almost four per cent, ahead of Wiranto. That is, with most votes counted, the race between Megawati and Wiranto now seems to be over. However, it is worth noting that Wiranto had climbed from around five per cent popularity only a few weeks ago, to over 22 per cent, reflecting the efficacy of a party machine and vote-buying. It will be this party machine and what it can hope to gain from doing deals for the second round that will more than anything else determine the next president. If the only consideration was who would make the best president, Wiranto would probably allocate his support, and that of Golkar, to Yudhoyono, who would consequently romp home in September. However, Megawati's PDI-P is now playing hard politics, and is wooing Wiranto and his team with as yet unspecified promises, but which can be reasonably expected to include senior ministerial posts and other positions of authority. Yudhoyono had promised not to engage in "support buying", saying he would only allocate ministerial and other posts on the basis of competence. Yet this principled stand could cost him dearly, assuming he does not decide that competence and self-interest can find a neat intersection. Wiranto was widely regarded as an undesirable president. As the then army commander-in-chief, he had overseen the death and destruction in East Timor in 1999. He also retains close links to deposed president Suharto and his family, although he has denied having his election campaign funded by them. While much international concern is undoubtedly justified, this assumes that much of the rest of Indonesia's political elite is clean -- which is far from being the case. If Wiranto does cut a deal with Megawati and is rewarded with a ministerial post -- coordinating politics and security minister would be most likely -- international concern will remain. But it will be more muted than in the past. Those countries which believe they have a stake in Indonesia's future, including the United States and Australia, have been at pains not to alienate Indonesia's political elite, even if this has constituted a back-flip on previous policy on, for example, human rights issues. As a future president, Megawati will offer more of the same. She was widely regarded as incompetent, which she continued to demonstrate in the lead-up to the elections. For example, she cited as a highlight of her economic management a Filipino beer company opening a branch in Indonesia. And her calls for Indonesians to vote for the "prettiest" candidate only earned her derision. Yet with the PDI-P party machine, and that of Golkar behind her, Megawati could become -- or remain -- a largely ceremonial president, leaving the running of state to her ministers. However, a victory for Megawati in September assumes that Yudhoyono has not become a politician, in the most cynical of senses. That is, anyone who believes what any politician says about staying above political deal-making is either naive or dealing with a tyrant. Yudhoyono has his faults, but tyranny is not among them. Most foreign governments, including Australia, are unusual in the openness of their support for Yudhoyono, who is Western educated -- he has two masters degrees from the US. A moderately competent manager, he was regarded as a military reformer during his time in the army. Yudhoyono is also widely viewed as a secularist leader. But interestingly, he enjoys the backing of Indonesia's two most radical Islamic parties -- the Justice and Welfare Party and the Star and Moon Party -- which have links to Islamist militias. On the basis of this, Yudhoyono can probably count on the support of Amien Rais' urban Islamic National Mandate Party (PAN), with its 14 per cent of the vote. Yudhoyono is also supported by the hawks in the Indonesian military (TNI). It has also been claimed that Yudhoyono's campaign was bankrolled by a major businessman, Tomy Winata, who has himself been accused of various shady practices and who is widely said to be the key financier to the TNI. That is to say, even though Yudhoyono is touted by international governments as the cleanest, most reformist presidential candidate, this may not quite be the case. In the war-torn province of Aceh, too, Yudhoyono carries a reputation for having overseen the May 2003 declaration of martial law, which saw tens of thousands of troops enter the province ahead of widespread killing, torture and destruction. Reports from North Aceh on election day said soldiers had been rounding up villagers reluctant to vote, forcing them to the polling booths and telling them to vote for Yudhoyono. But regardless of who wins the second round of elections in September, Indonesia's crippling problems will remain. Any future Indonesian president will have to face high and growing unemployment and poverty, a business and investment climate that remains in shambles, active radical Islamism and, not least, a cohesive and politically resurgent TNI. Senior TNI officers have their favourite candidates, but in the final analysis they know their political strength lies in institutional unity, and it is this that will determine who becomes Indonesia's next president. * The writer is senior lecturer in international development at Deakin University and the author of several books on Indonesian politics.
