Following President Mubarak's political initiative, analysts believe the reform ball will now roll in the region. Rasha Saad looks at the future pace of change For the second week running, the press was preoccupied by the fallout from the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Al-Hariri. However, the news that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak sought a change in the constitution to allow challengers in the presidential elections in September, paving the way for the first-ever multi- party vote in Egypt, attracted considerable attention from analysts. Taken by surprise, Arab writers dubbed the change a political bombshell and earthquake that would inspire the Arab region which regards Egypt a leading power. Speculation was rife among writers that the reason behind the sudden shift was both US and domestic pressure. In "Egypt is changing" Abdullah Iskandar wrote in the Saudi-funded, London-based Al-Hayat that after the constitutional amendment, political life in Egypt would not be the same. Electing the president under the present system -- in a referendum -- according to Iskandar, meant that the electoral process which is supposed to enliven political life, was going in circles. "With this new electoral process which allows direct popular elections, the vicious circle is breaking." Iskandar pointed out that if President Mubarak decided to participate in the race for a fifth term, "then the real outcome of such amendments would be felt the coming term, not this one." In the London-based Saudi funded Asharq Al- Awsat Maamoun Fendi, who is usually critical of Arab regimes, hailed the step "a revolution". Fendi believed the move came amidst regional changes of free and fair elections in Iraq and Palestine and a new dynamic movement of civil society in Lebanon. "In this context, Mubarak should be praised for reading the general mood in a world that bluntly says that democracy, and nothing else, regulates the relationship between the leader and his people." Fendi said President Mubarak's decision constituted a challenge to Egypt's political parties. "After this amendment, all parties have to clearly show the world that they are capable of collecting signatures and mobilising people to support its candidate." At the same time though, Fendi doubted their abilities to do so and did not rule out that these parties would find themselves not ready to enter the fray. President Mubarak's decision, according to Fendi, might "strip naked" these parties. "Most Egyptian parties, with the exception of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) and way after it the left-wing Tagammu, are only ink on paper," he wrote. Fendi said the ball now was in the court of intellectuals and politicians who are expected to change society from the traditional presidential culture into that of institutions capable of standing in open competition. "Would they be up to the challenge Mubarak has presented them?" Ahmed Al-Rabie, also in Asharq Al-Awsat, described the move as "a great step forward", adding the step should be followed by two important changes: the cancellation of emergency laws, especially after the political stability which Egypt has witnessed over the past few years, and limiting the presidential term so as not to exceed eight years, or two consecutive terms. He said the ongoing analysis in the Egyptian press giving reasons behind the decision was futile and should focus on its prospects instead. "One of the most important missions of intellectuals is to help push the community to the forefront instead of engaging in verbal rhetoric that does not help in improving the living standards of ordinary people." Reporting to the London-based Al-Quds Al- Arabi, Khaled El-Shami described Mubarak's decision as a genuine political earthquake. He said the decision was a result of both foreign and domestic pressure and cited the fact that US President George Bush did not meet Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit during his visit to Washington two weeks ago, and the fact that the G8 summit was cancelled, along with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's comments on the urgent need to introduce political reforms in Egypt. He also cited the escalation in domestic popular pressure that took the form of demonstrations against the regime and the running of President Mubarak for a fifth term, as contributing to the decision. "The demonstrations by the Egyptian movement for change, Kefaya, or Enough, were aired on satellite TV and had embarrassed the president." El-Shami also said that the move might be to prepare the ground for President Mubarak's son Gamal "in a more democratic and unprovocative way". El-Shami agrees that if President Mubarak runs for another term he will win outright. He believed official opposition parties lacked real popular support. Moreover, he said the Egyptian regime controls the media which does not allow airing other opinions or criticism of it. "President Mubarak is thus expected to garner the bulk of TV hours for his campaign." Al-Shami also doubted that such an amendment will cause a major shift in the stance of the majority of Egyptians "who boycott political participation". The UAE Al-Bayan ran several articles commenting on the Egyptian move. In its editorial, the paper wrote, "the decision was like thunder in the region and perhaps the whole world." It predicted that the benefits will not be limited to within Egyptian borders. "Egypt, with its weight, achievements, and power in the region, has a traditional leading role and was always a pioneer in major shifts." Despite a setback in recent years, the paper believes that Egyptian initiatives have always and will continue to affect other Arab countries. "When political bombs explode in Cairo, the shrapnel reaches the Arab horizon," the paper wrote. Emadeddin Hussein, also in Al-Bayan, pointed out that Mubarak's pledge showed the struggle of many Egyptian powers for reform has not been wasted. He cited the Nasserist Al-Arabi newspaper as playing a vital role in the campaign for reform and the Kefaya movement as able to cause an unforeseen headache. Khaled Sayed wrote that these popular movements and the demonstrations against the regime are an attempt to break the "status quo" imposed by many regimes on its people to exempt it from participating in decision-making. The coming phase will be that of the people who reject silence, submission and the status quo. "We will witness an era of rights regained, dignity and freedom," he wrote in Al-Bayan.
