Out of a turbulent political and economic climate comes the darkest hour and Europe's mood darkens even as that in tropical nations sickens, Gamal Nkrumah meditates morbidly What is it with Iceland? First there was the Icelandic financial crisis that witnessed the country's key banks collapsing into a bottomless sinkhole. It is no time to get more dirt into Reykjavik, the Icelandic capital. Never underestimate nature. The eruption of Volcano Eyjafjallajokull is mucky enough. It has been a terrifying nightmare. Eyjafjallajokull has been dormant for the past 200 years. In the never-ending struggle over nature's outbursts, we can be thankful at least that even more volatile Volcano Helka has not erupted too -- yet. Icelandic President Olafur Grimsson faces a grim scenario indeed. His legacy, however, is clearly weighing on his mind. It prompts the question of whether this force majeure will seal his own gruesome political fate. Airlines the world over are beginning to press for an end to no-fly bans by the authorities of the countries concerned. As Al-Ahram Weekly went to press, only 4,000 of the 24,000 flights that regularly operate on a Sunday across Europe actually took off. Apparently the impact of this natural disaster is worse than that of 9/11. Nothing like a good natural disaster to put things in perspective. Some 313 airports are immobilised and hundreds of thousands of passengers have been stranded in airports across Europe. It is estimated that almost seven million passengers have had their travel plans foiled because of the natural disaster in Iceland. One reason for the aggravation of the people is the perceived lack of transparency by the relevant authorities. Airline bankruptcies loom large, and that is not only the European-based carriers. Emirates, one of the world's most state-of-the-art airlines is said to be losing well over $10 million a day. The Dubai-based airline is still reeling from the financial crisis that hit the prosperous city-state, the hub of the Gulf region. What is really galling is their typically guarded manner. The European Union is considering whether to waive the rules and permit EU member states to funnel emergency funds to rescue the airlines from financial ruin. Icelanders will fume at this, considering they are being asked to cough up billions to Europe's banks after the financial collapse of 2008. Many Icelanders see the spewing of their black cloud over Europe as a fitting answer to their Euro-induced bankruptcy. The EU is now flailing away, belatedly upgrading other means of transport to ease the flying problems caused by the Icelandic volcanic eruption. Numerous passengers plumped for passive resignation in the face of official acquiescence. "In the face of such dire economic consequences it is incredible that Europe's transport ministers have taken five days to organise a teleconference," Giovanni Bisignani, director-general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) bitterly complained to no avail. Pope Benedict XVI was stranded in the Mediterranean island of Malta where he was trying hard to simultaneously outstrip both the embarrassing priest-sex scandal raging in Europe and North America and the ash cloud blowing from Iceland. Catholic Malta, a recent addition to the EU, started poor and blossomed in contrast to Iceland, which icily kept its distance and withered on the vine. Indeed, the Pope would not be out of place stranded in Malta, like his illustrious predecessor Paul, 1950 years ago, as Benedict reminded his Maltese flock. It hosted the Pope under duress, as the chartered Alitalia airliner which took him there was grounded soon after he landed and Air Malta was obliged to fly him back. But at least the Roman Catholic stronghold managed to slip through to EU membership before any financial crises. With a pinch of smugness, can Lutheran Iceland match Malta? Everywhere, disasters seem to have landed where they shouldn't. The Icelandic ash cloud is no different. In spite of some critics' gripes, there was always a silver lining to every black cloud. Kenya's carnation exports collapsed because of airspace closures with losses around $2 million per day. Wouldn't it be more rational to produce staple goods for Kenya's starving millions? Bangladesh's key export garments gather mould on the tarmac in the country's principle airports. Wouldn't it be more sensible to distribute them to Bangladesh's threadbare millions? The hope of the badly shaken Euro status quo is that the problem will just blow over. The result of such passivity is that no one knows what will happen when the dust settles down. A return to primeval insecurity was the last thing we needed. We are still in terror of the elements in spite of the great breakthroughs in technological advances. Europe is enveloped in a volcanic cloud, but how will Eurocrats deal with the fallout? Limited air traffic has brought air traffic to a standstill. Three different zones have been declared. There is a "no-fly zone", a "caution zone" with some contamination of the air and a "safe" flying zone. EU Transport Commissioner Siim Kallas warned of disastrous repercussions but he failed to come up with credible solutions. Clouds shut down most of northern European airspace and even as far afield as Turkey on Europe's southeastern tip. The losses of British Airways are estimated to top more than $30 billion. The British national carrier is losing up to $30 million a day and more is at stake. Panicked, stranded travellers, however, are not in the least impressed. Cockpit checklists have failed to come to the rescue. Sound pilots have refused to fly over dangerous airspace zones, as airborne ash clogs the engines. The solution to these problems is not in the least straightforward. Iceland's ash disaster foisted on high-flyers untold difficulties. "Mixing commercial and safety decisions risks lives," explained Philip von Schappenthau, secretary-general of the European Cockpit Association, expressing fears that the disaster will be racking up terrific losses. Iceland was plunged into a great depression and it looked towards Europe for deliverance, but the tables have turned. Air passengers stranded in Europe, and rotting exports from impoverished underdeveloped countries in Europe point to serious problems that need to be seriously addressed. Spitting chunks of lava bursting from a crater onto the glaciers of Iceland is not the crisis; it is rather a pointer, a grim reminder of the challenges that face the global economy. The "couldn't care less" attitude has become untenable. An eruption of an Icelandic volcano impacts negatively peasants and farm workers in Equatorial Africa much more than Japanese tourists visiting the Eiffel Tower. We do indeed live in a global village, as clichéd as this might sound. And, there are other symbolic social ills. Iceland has one of the highest suicide rates in the world. It has a certain ring to it. So what can American businessmen or Canada hockey players on tour learn from Kenyan peasants? Can the economies of rich countries cope with the hazards of nature better than poorer ones? Most definitely. Perseverance. Fortitude in the face of adversity. That sense of prioritising the financial and economic costs of a natural disaster over all else comes through all this strongly as the preferred means of survival in our capitalist globalised village. The way this year began augurs ill. Iceland is now an unlikely candidate for membership in the European Union. One gets the sense, such as with Turkey, of Iceland as a crisis-prone country trying to justify itself in vain. The shares of major United States airlines fell this week as analysts feared that debris from the ash cloud would disrupt trans-Atlantic flights further. The US will no doubt provide more relief funding though in keeping with its reputation for contributing the lowest percentage of its GNP of any industrial nation. Hurricane Katrina was an eye-opener as far as the US was concerned. It became clear that the lives of impoverished blacks and people of colour matter less than wealthy whites. The history of disasters is a horrendous one. No one knows exactly how many people the 79 AD volcanic eruption in Pompeii killed. In 1875-78 India faced a famine that claimed the lives of an estimated 10 million people. China, too, has had its share of natural disasters. In 1876-78, famine left over nine million Chinese dead. More recently, the earthquake in January 2010 that raised the Haitian capital Port-au-Prince resulted in 230,000 dead. The world's response to natural disasters, now on the increase, has been found wanting. The post-disaster relief, too, falls far short of the mark. The "situational awareness" of US military has proven time and again to be deficient. The US will no doubt jump to provide more relief funding to Icelandic sheep farmers than anyone else. That would amount to pittance in line with its reputation for contributing the lowest percentage of any industrial nation to natural disasters in poor countries including neighbours such as Haiti. Hurricane Katrina, after all, hit home -- Louisiana with its large black population, and is still in shambles, like much of the "Third World". Back in 1783, the eruption of Laki followed by Eyjafjallajokull in 1821 -- which lasted two years -- sent Europe into a mini-Ice Age, disrupting weather patters, when Londoners skated on the Thames. Kenya freights more than 1,000 metric tons of roses, carnations and other flowers and vegetables to European markets per day. The horticultural industry in Kenya is now in ruins thanks to the eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull thousands of miles away. "Kenya's flower and vegetable industry which employs tents of thousands of farm workers and contributes over a fifth of the country's gross domestic product is losing $3 million per day because of ash from Iceland's volcano has grounded flights," according to the Christian Science Monitor. That is why pressing on such an issue is a prerequisite for proper answers. Asking for fresh ideas after a week of bitter wrangling over acrimonious air in an incongruous, acrid political atmosphere -- especially if you have Iceland in mind -- is no easy matter. It is surely too late for other Europeans to bring the Icelanders on board, I suspect. Ever since the Asian Tsunami, political discussion around the world has tended to treat this unfortunate chain of events as much more than an unhappy coincidence. The big question facing the world over the next generation is likely to be to what extent Icelanders and the rest of us are sensibly equivocal about the future. However, the fact that it happened is recognition that something needs to be done to remedy the situation. Man has reached the Moon. Can we not control nature and contain the damage done by natural disasters? If not then this is outrageously wrong in the larger scheme of things. I am neither a historian nor a soothsayer. However, I understand that the reaction of the authorities in Europe, by their own admission has been sadly wanting. It is an approach whose relevance has been heightened by the global financial crisis. Natural disasters are as old as the world itself, but let's not follow in the footsteps of the dinosaurs.
