There is growing concern about what the US will want from Tel Aviv following the Gaza withdrawal, discovers Emad Gad The Israeli media addressed several domestic, regional, and international issues over the past week, but at the head of the list was the ongoing controversy over Ariel Sharon's plan to withdraw from the Gaza Strip and dismantle Israeli settlements there. The press wondered if there might be a post-withdrawal phase as Israel's relations with Egypt and other Arab states assumes more prominence following the Arab summit held in Algeria. Since most of these concerns are related in some form to an active American role and since steps taken to address these concerns are based on an understanding with the US administration, the Israeli press closely followed Sharon's visit to the US and his meeting with President Bush. It was widely speculated before Sharon's visit that the administration would approve and adopt Sharon's view of relations with the Palestinians and Israeli demands on Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen). Some analysts even began to speak of a perfectly harmonious stance between Sharon and Bush since shortly before Sharon's April visit last year, Bush presented him a letter pledging a political settlement on Israeli terms. Yet, no sooner had the visit been completed than the Israeli media changed its tune, launching a virtual attack on the US administration. Some Israeli writers accused the administration of short- sightedness and ignorance, and even of harming Israel's security, after Bush made it clear that Israel must withdraw from the Gaza Strip and dismantle Jewish settlements there, while at the same time rejecting the expansion of settlements in the West Bank and the course of the separation wall. After that, the Israeli press discussed Sharon's visit to Washington with an unmistakable degree of disappointment. Perhaps the best example of such articles is that written by Alex Fishman, entitled "The Real Message," published in Yediot Aharonot on 18 April. "Due to its great ignorance, the American administration is unable to reach the depths of Israeli political acumen in the Palestinian issue," Fishman wrote. "For the second time, the prime minister's visit to Texas has proven that we are dealing with people who have not an inkling of understanding of international relations. "Why is it so difficult for them to understand what Sharon is explaining to them? Why can they not understand that 2005 will be the year of disengagement, a very difficult year during which we will be licking our internal wounds? It will be a year requiring ongoing examination in order to understand how we and the Palestinians can digest this step and how we can maintain regional stability following disengagement. In short, the year 2005 will be a year of thought and reflection. It will certainly not be an appropriate time to begin the peace process. "The year 2006 will be even more difficult, since elections are scheduled in Israel. It is certain that in an election year, there will be no talk of dramatic steps. Also consider that in an election year, the prime minister will be forced to turn strongly to the right in order to weaken Binyamin Netanyahu and his supporters in the Likud Central Committee. Why can the Americans not understand this? Clearly no one can think that Sharon will head into elections without enjoying the support of the American president. If the American president does not understand that this is his job, then Sharon's fate will be that of Yitzhak Shamir under Bush Sr. "The prime minister went to Texas assuming that the US administration understood that in the coming two years it cannot make any new demands on Israel and that it must postpone the entire roadmap to a later date. "In other words, Israel must be able to relax a little after disengagement, entering a transitional phase until negotiations are held over a final agreement. "But these assumptions were proven wrong, one after the other, during Sharon's meeting with President Bush. The Americans do not intend to give the Middle East a two-year vacation. It is doubtful whether they will give us a break of more than a few months after the disengagement plan is implemented in September. "During Sharon's visit, President Bush publicly stated his rejection of the Israeli view of construction in the settlements. He did not even accept the idea of a sniff test for Abu Mazen. While we say that there is a bad smell coming from Abu Mazen's efforts to confront terrorist organisations, the Americans only smell roses and demand that Israel give him a chance. The Americans are talking to us about a test of calm, which largely depends on Abu Mazen's ability to control the Gaza Strip after disengagement. The Americans are less concerned about dismantling the infrastructure of terrorism once and for all as a condition for continuing with the roadmap. "The day after disengagement we will not get a pat on the back and a good night's sleep before setting out on a vacation from negotiating with the Palestinians. Shortly after the disengagement plan is implemented, Israel will find itself facing American efforts far more coordinated than any staged by the Europeans to open a path leading to a permanent settlement. Before you can say Jack Robinson, we'll find ourselves before a series of demands and concerns raised by the US administration and we will be forced to respond. The issues include turning over the cities, removing the checkpoints, freedom of movement, the return of a normal life, concern of the course of the wall, a freeze on construction in the settlements, and of course the ongoing demand to dismantle illegal settlement outposts. "The news published by Yediot Aharonot that a post-disengagement phase is on the prime minister's agenda shows us that he has absorbed the American message. We have someone who has realised that we will not be able to rest on our laurels the day after disengagement. The Americans will not let us. "In fact, this is the central message that Israel must absorb from the prime minister's precious, successful visit to the private ranch of the US president." To read more about this and other aspects of the Arab-Israeli conflict, please visit the website of Arabs Against Discrimination (www.aad-online.org).
