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Breaking the ice, again?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 01 - 06 - 2006

An Egyptian-Palestinian-Israeli summit which was set to take place in Sharm El-Sheikh has been postponed until further notice, reports Magda El-Ghitany
Presidential spokesman Suleiman Awad on Monday dismissed news reports that Egypt would host a trilateral summit in Sharm El-Sheikh which would group for the first time Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas and newly elected Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Instead, Awad said a "bilateral meeting between President Mubarak and [Olmert] would take place next week to discuss means to boost the Palestinian-Israeli peace process." Awad added that the Mubarak-Olmert talks, the first since Olmert became prime minister a month ago, would "pave the way and facilitate the occurrence of a trilateral summit in the future which would be hosted by Egypt and that would convene for the first time."
Also, a high-ranking diplomatic source who requested anonymity, told Al-Ahram Weekly that the major goal beyond the Mubarak-Olmert talks was "first, to demonstrate to the Israeli side the fact that it has a genuine [Palestinian] peace partner. Afterwards, the two sides, together with Egypt as a mediator, can sit and negotiate." The diplomat insisted that Cairo had never set a particular date to hold such a trilateral summit.
Press reports in several Arab newspapers, including the Saudi daily Asharq Al-Awsat, said there were serious Egyptian intentions to host the trilateral summit next week but that last minute obstacles prevented the gathering. Deputy director of Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies Mohamed El-Sayed Said told the Weekly that there could have been serious negotiations between Egypt with the Israeli and the Palestinian sides to hold the summit. However, "the whole idea was postponed because the concerned parties realised that if it was held next week, it would not lead to any solid or new conclusions that would genuinely contribute to the current thorny phase in Palestinian-Israeli relations."
If it takes place in the near future, the summit's timing, commentators told the Weekly, is critical. While Fatah and Hamas are engaged in violent clashes that threaten the stability and coherence of Palestinian ranks, the gathering also comes shortly after Olmert's trip to the US.
Emad Gad, Israel expert and director of Arabs Against Discrimination (AAD), is sceptical about the three-way summit's possible outcome. He described it as "a routine meeting", and predicted that Olmert would likely repeat his standard complaints: that Abbas is losing his control over the Palestinians; that Hamas is a terrorist organisation that usurped power from Abbas; that the Israelis are being attacked using weapons smuggled out of Egypt; and that Israel is unable to find a genuine peace partner among the Palestinians.
This is not the first time that Egypt has brought together leaders on both sides for their initial contact. In February 2005, Egypt hosted a four-way summit that also included Jordan, and brought together former Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and Abbas as Palestinian president for the first time.
Gad said Egypt would continue playing this kind of mediating role in bringing both sides to the negotiating table, but "it is unlikely that this will result in anything other than the status quo."
Tel Aviv's goal, in Gad's view, is to implement Olmert's unilateral withdrawal plan from the West Bank by lobbying for the international community's support. The Israel expert explained that unilateral withdrawal is vital because it would give Tel Aviv the opportunity to bypass discussing thorny issues such as settlements, Jerusalem, and Palestinian refugees. "Olmert will not come to Sharm El-Sheikh to negotiate his unilateral plan for withdrawal with Abbas," opined Gad.
Although Olmert came across as a moderate in his address to Congress last week, observers believe he will change his tone during talks in the region. In Washington, Olmert -- who is the first Israeli leader to discuss setting final Israeli borders by 2010 -- spoke about the need for "Israelis to live in peace". He also said that Palestinians want peace too, and even announced his readiness "to cooperate with [Abbas] to eventually restore peace for both nations".
But Mohamed El-Sayed Said, deputy director of Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, believes that Olmert's moderate tone is only used with the US. "Olmert, his party and all of Sharon's ilk seek to secure the US's absolute support, and that is why Olmert used a moderate voice in Congress." That moderation, noted Said, would probably abate when the US is not directly involved.
Gad agreed that Olmert's tone would change when talking to leaders in the region. In the US, Olmert delivered a message that, "Israel is tolerant, and exerts its maximum effort to attain peace, but cannot find a [Palestinian] partner to negotiate with. But in Sharm El-Sheikh, he will just complain and criticise."
If that happens, the three-way summit's only positive outcome would be that it finally brought the two sides together, an achievement that -- in itself, Gad said -- "might provide some hope that there may be more fruitful Palestinian-Israeli cooperation in the future."


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