Palestinian legislative elections will go ahead as planned, though the results are far from certain for the ruling Fatah faction, writes Khaled Amayreh in the West Bank Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has reaffirmed his commitment to hold crucial legislative elections, slated for 17 July, on time. His reassertion came in the aftermath of suggestions by some Fatah law- makers in the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) that a postponement of the elections was necessary to allow more time for adequate preparations. Earlier in the week, the PLC approved the "election law" in its second reading, whereby a third of MPs would be elected as "national candidates" while two-thirds would be elected in regional districts, either as party list members or independents. The draft law is fiercely opposed by the bulk of Palestinian society and most of the smaller political factions who petitioned Abbas to see to it that "a fairer and more representative law" was adopted. Last month Palestinian political factions meeting in Cairo agreed that the "50-50 system" would be adopted; meaning half of the parliament's seats would be contested nationally with the other half contested within regional districts. Meanwhile, some Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) factions are exploring the idea of contesting the elections under a united "nationalist- democratic front" to challenge the Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas. This idea was floated last week by Abbas who proposed that the entire occupied Palestinian territories, including the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip, be considered a single electoral district, very much like the Israeli electoral system. Abbas, who is also head of Fatah, the de facto ruling party of the Palestinian Authority (PA), suggested that a united PLO front would put up a serious challenge to Hamas and might well keep it at bay. This view is generally shared by leaders of the three main Palestinian leftist factions, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP) and the Palestine People's Party (PPP). The Palestine National Initiative (PNI), headed by former presidential candidate Mustafa Barghouti, accepts the idea in principle, but insists that any Fatah-leftist front must be predicated on the condition that his expressly secular party is treated as "equal" rather than "subordinate" to Fatah. A thorough analysis of the partisan map in the occupied Palestinian territories suggests that putting the idea into effect won't be easy. There are two main obstacles impeding the formation of a united PLO list to contest the upcoming elections. First, the controversial elections law, approved by the Fatah-dominated PLC, is fiercely contested by the erstwhile PLO leftist factions. This law, says Taysir Khaled, a prominent DFLP leader and former presidential candidate, would make the idea of a united PLO list meaningless. "This system closes off all opportunities for a united nationalist front since it would reinforce tribal considerations at the expense of national considerations," he said. Several Palestinian commentators and intellectuals have recently criticised Fatah's "dogged clinging" to the "tribal" and "local constituency" system, accusing Fatah MPs of giving more attention to their "parochial self- interests" than to national interests. However, some MPs have retorted by arguing that tribal realities in Palestine are an undeniable fact and that it is appropriate to deal with these realities on their own merits. The second obstacle to a PLO coalition against Hamas is the chronic and lingering mutual suspicions and lack of confidence between Fatah, the PLO mainstream faction, and the smaller leftist groups, whose power and influence receded drastically since the collapse of the former Soviet Union and the emergence of Hamas in the late 1980s. Khaled spoke of the "bitter legacy" between Fatah and its erstwhile partners in the PLO. "I think our brothers in Fatah would have to give up their traditional condescending attitudes towards other PLO factions. Fatah's propensity to hegemony has always hindered the creation of a broad national front," he said. While the intentions of Abbas are understood to be good, the formation of a united PLO list for the coming elections, according to Khaled, would require a modern democratic election law that would prepare the foundation for a genuine partnership between Fatah and the leftist groups. Among Fatah's rank and file, there is little enthusiasm for an election front with the left. Some Fatah leaders -- for example, Diab Al- Louh of Gaza -- believe that the left stands to gain much but give little in return. "I think it is better for us and them to contest the elections separately. A coalition or any form of cooperation would have to wait until after the elections," Al-Louh told Al-Ahram Weekly. Some leftist leaders are once again contemplating the idea of forming a coalition that would encompass all leftist factions and independents and which would serve as a third alternative to Hamas and Fatah. Barghouti, in particular, is working hard to accomplish this. Speaking to the Weekly Barghouti opined that nearly 45 per cent of Palestinian voters were "neither for Hamas nor for Fatah". "This is the silent majority which we represent," he said. However, there is ample indication that the Palestinian left is suffering from serious division and is lacking political and ideological cohesiveness, a necessary prerequisite for a united leftist front. More important is the fact that the left in Palestine is much weaker than many of its leaders are willing recognise. According to the latest opinion survey conducted by the Palestinian Centre for Public Survey and Research (PCPSR), public support for all Palestinian leftist groups combined, including Barghouti's PNI, does not, on present levels, exceed 2.4 per cent. Hence, it is highly unlikely that the left, even if it contests the elections in a united front, will succeed in creating a third force, certainly not one with any semblance of proportionality to either Hamas or Fatah. However, the left may well succeed in winning a certain number of seats that would have a potentially significant balancing power in the next Palestinian parliament. The prospect of a united PLO list, or the formation of a united leftist front, doesn't seem to unsettle the Islamic resistance group, Hamas. The movement's chief leader in Gaza, Mahmoud Al-Zahar, dismisses such proposals as "expected but harmless". "In Palestine, like elsewhere, the left has receded to insignificance," Al-Zahar told the Weekly. "A Fatah-leftist alliance doesn't unsettle us at all," he added. Further, Al-Zahar pointed out that Hamas was not overly concerned about the outcome of the upcoming elections, arguing that the important thing was to lay down the foundations of a sound and strong democracy in Palestine. This is not to say, however, that Hamas is not making the necessary preparations for the elections. According to Islamist insiders, the movement is already choosing candidates for the 17 July elections, many of them political detainees in Israeli jails. It remains to be seen if placing many administrative detainees on Hamas's list of candidates will be proven a liability or an asset. It is, however, further indication of the political resolve of Hamas to press a harder line relative to any possible future resolution of the Palestinian issue.
