It is essential to the country's political well-being that Kifaya survive the elections, argues Khalil El-Anani* Will Kifaya (The Egyptian Movement for Change) remain a force on Egypt's political scene or will it wither once elections are held? In recent months Kifaya has brought purpose and much-needed vitality to Egyptian politics. It is a small movement but one that signals a crucial change in Egypt's political mood, in stark contrast with the stagnation that has dominated for years. It was Kifaya that gave rise to growing political expectations and all opposition groups have benefited as a result. Kifaya is a work in process and it makes sense that it should remain part of Egypt's political life. Without Kifaya's tireless campaigning against outdated concepts Egypt would not have moved as far as it has. It has withstood a year of ferocious attacks, its resilience a result of the movement having no ideological boundaries. It is a movement open to all, Marxists and liberals, Islamists and pan-Arabists and as such embodies the desire for change shared by most people in this country. Kifaya is not confined to any single age group or class. It invites everyone who wishes to see things change to join its ranks. To quote its general coordinator, George Ishaq, Kifaya is an "embryonic" movement. It was Kifaya that blew the whistle on the status quo without promising overnight reversals. Kifaya's flexibility helped it survive government harassment and provocation. But the movement's longevity was always an issue. How long can it survive on street demonstrations? How can it maintain purpose through impromptu rallies? Kifaya's future is uncertain for a number of reasons. It is going through a down phase which is likely to continue following the elections. Kifaya set out to stop Hosni Mubarak's re-election and failed. This could be quite dispiriting to Kifaya's leaders. Worse still, the government might be tempted to retaliate against Kifaya members. There are no real guarantees that the government will make things easy for the opposition. Fears of a political reversal are not to be discounted in the absence of the kind of checks and balances that would guarantee the president introduces further reforms. That the opposition is divided became clear during the presidential race. Although Kifaya is not officially linked to any of the opposition parties, the opportunism some of them have displayed is deplorable. It is likely that the government will strike deals with opposition groups ahead of parliamentary elections, which will diminish Kifaya's ability to pressure the regime. Foreign pressures for reform are abating. Kifaya never banked on these pressures, but it has benefited from their outcome. Kifaya is facing a crisis though the movement is unlikely to acknowledge this any time soon. By the end of this year, Egypt's political scene is likely to revert to stagnation, in which case Kifaya will have to look for ways to survive. It will have one of two options. It could tell its members and sympathisers to join existing or new parties, or else transform itself into a non-governmental organisation active in raising public awareness of the challenges facing society. Kifaya's survival is essential to the country's political health. Kifaya has never been the bunch of agitators bent on trouble-making, as some would have us believe. The movement has shown that the Egyptian society remains capable of producing new leaders. Its survival is not the responsibility of its members alone but of political activists throughout the country. Kifaya was not a party yet it did things most parties failed to do. Without it Article 76 would not have been amended. Without it, we wouldn't have come so far. * The writer is a political analyst.
