Israel remains largely in control in Gaza and the West Bank, yet the dynamic has changed, writes Amin Howeidi* Diplomats have a natural propensity for euphemisms while security officials have a natural preference for precision. I see things, often, through the eyes of the latter. What do we call the ongoing arrangements in Gaza and the north of the West Bank? Shall we call it withdrawal, disengagement, or re-deployment? The Palestinian Authority is not allowed to use the settlements -- totalling 22 in Gaza and four in the north of the West Bank -- for a period of one month after the evacuation. The Philadelphi (or Salaheddin) Corridor is nominally under Egyptian-Palestinian control, but practically under Israeli control. Israel controls the harbours and territorial waters, the airspace and all the roads leading to crossing points. What happened in Gaza was disengagement of sorts. The opposing forces in that disengagement may yet clash again at any time and in various ways. The animosity has not abated, but the conflict is taking a new shape. Some of the reasons for the conflict remain unchanged, but much has changed. The biblical background of the conflict, for example, is different today than it used to be. Some of the security considerations have shifted too. Geographical depth means less now for both sides, for they are evidently able to hurt each other across any borders and in more than one way. The theory that security can be achieved through the occupation of land, which Igal Alon held to fast following the 1967 War, is less credible than it used to be. The Israelis no longer hope to create Greater Israel by force, although they may wish to do just that through other means. Furthermore, the claim that no state other than Israel should exist between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean is refuted by none other than President Bush in his roadmap. Still again, the idea that Israel's role is to keep Arab countries geographically separate sounds irrelevant now that Israel wants Egypt to watch the Philadelphi Corridor. Israel is a nuclear power and it was forced out of Gaza by unconventional weapons, such as human bombs and booby-trapped cars. If anything, this proves that rudimentary deterrence can be as effective as anything, including the most sophisticated weaponry. The conflict is turning into a full- blown tragedy, with both sides cast in the role of warden and prisoner. Israel is incarcerating the Palestinians in Gaza, and the Palestinians are incarcerating Israel behind the wall. The US, however reluctantly, is admitting that. This is why President Bush pressed Sharon for the withdrawal, and the latter complied, albeit with a larger than life show of grief. Unfortunately, there is no end in sight, though the roadmap suggests that something vague lies ahead. A crumb of justice has been offered, but the scene is still quite unsightly. It is still "fight, fight, then talk, talk." Both sides know that at some point they should begin talking, but so far they're having difficulty getting on with it. Political solutions often come about through extremist leaders. Often, the extremists are the ones with enough power to make things happen. Menachem Begin signed the Camp David accords. Sharon ordered the dismantling of the settlements. The Tories signed the evacuation agreement with Egypt in 1954. Gamal Abdel-Nasser signed the ceasefire in 1970. And so on. Will the geographical separation between Gaza and the West Bank revive the memory of Pakistan and Bangladesh? Will it be a reminder of the break up of the northern (Syria) and southern (Egypt) provinces of the United Arab Republic? We may ponder every imaginable scenario, then something altogether different would happen. Who could have predicted the unusual departures of Yasser Arafat and Rabin? Who can speculate on the future of Sharon? Who knows how the demographic balance of Jews to Arabs in Israel will turn out? Gaza is the first step in the journey of a thousand miles. There is more work ahead, and more risks and opportunities to be measured. * The writer is former minister of defence and chief of general intelligence.
