Following the failed assassination attempt against a prominent Lebanese journalist, Damascus and Beirut are bracing for another ticking bomb, this time political, reports Hicham Safieddine The botched assassination of Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation show host and news anchor May Chidiac has added to the growing sense of instability, in both Lebanon and Syria, as the mid-October deadline for the release of the UN report into the killing of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri approaches. The incident prompted a surprise revelation by Lebanese Defense Minister Elias Al-Murr, another target of a previous assassination attempt. On Tuesday, Al-Murr insinuated on an LBC news show that Syrian ex-security chief in Lebanon Rustum Ghazala was probably behind the June assassination attempt Al-Murr survived.Chidiac, known for her anti-Syrian views, was targeted by a remote-controlled bomb placed under the driver's seat of her Range Rover on Sunday near the coastal town of Jounieh. She survived the explosion, though the latest reports say she has lost her left foot and part of her left hand. Local and international condemnation of the attack was swift, and included statements by Lebanese President Emil Lahoud and Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. A day after the attempted assassination an emergency meeting of the Lebanese cabinet was called, and a vigil in support of Chidiac was held in Beirut's Martyrs' Square. US bomb experts have been asked to help in the investigation. Solidarity in the face of the crime could not, however, hide a growing sense of uneasiness that the incident was part of the build up to the release of Detlev Mehlis's report into Al-Hariri's assassination. Earlier on the day of the attack, Chidiac had hosted political commentator and An-nahar columnist Sarkis Naoom on her show Naharkom Saed. Naoom had warned of "black clouds" that would blow across the region once Mehlis discloses his findings. Following interviews with Syrian officials Mehlis's investigation is now in its final phase. But while Germany's former prosecutor remained publicly tight-lipped about the proceedings, rumours were flying about the political consequences of the investigation, especially for Syria. Pressure on the Baath regime in Damascus increased following Mehlis's visit to Damascus to interview senior Syrian officials. Among those said to have been interviewed are the Syrian Interior Minister and former security chief of Syrian operations in Lebanon Gazi Kanaan, and Rustum Ghazala, his successor in the latter post named by Al-Murr. The Syrian government attempted to distance itself from the proceedings by claiming that interviewees were being questioned in their personal, and not official, capacity. Speculation over the possibility of Syria being directly implicated in the assassination of Al-Hariri prompted UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan to deny rumours that Damascus was attempting to strike a deal to avoid such a scenario. And in a bid to counter Syria's increasing isolation President Bashar Al-Assad made a surprise visit to Egypt on Sunday. But while the Egyptian government said there were enough "pockets of tension" in the region and insisted it opposed any moves that would destabilise the Syrian regime, it is likely to take more than expressions of diplomatic support to deflect the heat from Damascus. And with so much hype surrounding the conclusion of Mehlis's investigation it is becoming increasingly difficult to envisage an outcome capable of defusing the tensions building up in Lebanon and Syria. Should the report make explicit links between Al-Hariri's assassination and the Syrian regime and its Lebanese allies, tensions will boil over with uncertain consequences for both countries. If the report is vague in its conclusions and fails to uncover strong supporting evidence some analysts expect the cycle of chaos and political intrigue in Lebanon -- of which Chidiac's attempted assassination is a part -- to continue. In a sign that the UN probe may prove inconclusive Lebanese Justice Minister Charles Rizk warned that the report is not going to provide a panacea to Lebanon's woes. "There are people who speak of the report by Mr Mehlis [...] as if it is going to uncover all aspects of the truth, and that there is some absolute ruling that will name the perpetrators," he said. Should Mehlis's team, with its wide-ranging mandate and international expertise, fail to uncover the perpetrators of Al-Hariri's killing, many Lebanese will feel there is little chance of breaking the cycle of assassinations, foreign interference and widening political divisions within the country. Relations with Syria will remain poisoned, with blame and suspicion persisting on both sides of the border, and the search for the truth will go back to square one.
