While the upcoming parliamentary elections may take some cues from the presidential poll, reports Magda El-Ghitany, they will differ in many ways as well Despite the "major differences" in the mechanism and nature of the two polls, Egypt's recently- completed presidential elections may have an indirect impact on next month's parliamentary elections. That was one of the conclusions drawn by political analysts at a recent seminar held at Al-Ahram's Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, in cooperation with the Friedrich Ebert Institution, a German think-tank. "The presidential elections were like a warm-up for the upcoming parliamentary polls," said Al-Ahram's Amr El-Chobaky. "Not only did they strengthen the stances of parties like the Ghad and Wafd, but they stimulated all of the opposition into working hard to acquire the five per cent parliamentary representation needed to nominate presidential contenders in 2011." Ahmed El-Menisi, a researcher, said the opposition is now very clear about "the necessity of coordinating with each other to form a bloc that can contest the NDP." Both the Wafd and Ghad parties, El-Menisi told Al-Ahram Weekly, have been subjected to a level of harassment that might eventually lead them to think about that kind of coordination. A unified stand, said George Ishak, the coordinator of the Egyptian Movement for Change (Kifaya), would provide the only avenue by which opposition parties earn parliamentary seats. "Only then," Ishak told the Weekly, will "decisions leading to genuine change and true reform take place." Although Kifaya doesn't intend to run for parliamentary seats, it is now "exerting its utmost effort to coordinate among the different national forces to create a joint parliamentary list that can compete against the NDP," in the upcoming elections. Most analysts do not think the Ghad Party, on its own, will come out of the elections with the same percentage of votes that its chairman, Ayman Nour, got in the presidential poll. El-Chobaky noted that with the internal disputes the party has been experiencing over the past month, it would be highly unlikely for the Ghad to capture the eight per cent it got on 7 September. El-Chobaky predicted that, at most, the Wafd and Ghad parties might get five per cent of the total seats each. Other large opposition parties -- like the Tagammu -- would be unlikely to get even that, "which is the price they will pay for the negative stance they adopted," by boycotting the presidential elections. The seven smaller parties that took part in the presidential poll -- Al-Itihadi, Misr 2000, Al-Destouri Al-Igtimai Al-Hur, Al-Umma, Misr Al-Arabi, Al-Takaful, and Al-Wifak Al-Watani -- will probably not be able to get any seats, most analysts said. On the other hand, the banned but tolerated Muslim Brotherhood, whose members usually run as independents, might secure a considerable number of seats: "60-80" was the prediction made by Mohamed El-Sayed Said, Al-Ahram centre's deputy director. While both the Wasat and Karama parties are still trying to earn their official legitimacy, some of their members -- like Karama's Hamdin Sabahy -- may win even if they run as independents. The issue of turnout will surely be a crucial factor as well. Said and El-Menisi both said that turnout at the presidential poll was low because "people were sure the NDP candidate was going to win." This time, because things are a little less certain, turnout will definitely be higher. People will be keen to take part in order to "make sure that candidates who will provide their districts with the direct services they need end up winning". As far as media coverage is concerned, El-Menisi predicted that the state-owned media, and especially the state-owned press, would continue to be biased in its massive support for NDP candidates. Radio and TV, meanwhile, may end up following in the footsteps of the somewhat more balanced coverage of different parties they offered during the presidential poll.
