Opposition violence rocks Ethiopia threatening to thwart the country's nascent democratic process, writes Gamal Nkrumah Ethiopia this week suffered one of its worst civil disturbances and violent protests since the students-led protests at Addis Ababa University that heralded the fall of the Marxist junta -- or dreaded Derg -- in 1991. Africa's oldest independent nation, and the continent's third most populous country with 75 million people, is prone to periodic social unrest. It is, after all, one of Africa's and the world's poorest and least developed countries. The disturbances demonstrate a rising disenchantment with the post-Derg Ethiopian political process. So far it has been an exclusively urban phenomenon. The rural backwaters of this vast and ancient land are in the political doldrums. The Ethiopian opposition eschews the deep-seated adherence to a top-down style of policy-making and government at the expense of more decentralisation and regional autonomy. The urban-based opposition seeks more participatory and accountable forms of governance. The Ethiopian capital is the undisputed stronghold of the opposition. The violence has brought Addis Ababa, a city of five million people, to a virtual standstill. The city is the headquarters of the African Union (AU) and several African-oriented United Nations-affiliated bodies and international humanitarian relief agencies. The disturbances also coincided with the AU Fifth Extraordinary Summit and the Muslim Eid Al-Fitr celebrations. Muslims constitute slightly more than half of Ethiopia's population. The area around the Grand Anwar Mosque near the Merkato -- Africa's largest open-air market and the business hub of Addis Ababa -- was scene of much of the violence. The ruling Ethiopia People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) bitterly contested the May 2005 elections which exposed Ethiopia's schisms as never before. A powerful ethnic Amhara-based opposition challenges the ruling EPRDF. The Ethiopian opposition seems yet to have a way of steering between an overzealous application of multi-party democracy and toying with the idea of overthrowing the government through people power. What is new, however, is a real political debate at national level about political participation. The consequences of this week's violence, nonetheless, have left an indelible mark on Ethiopia's political landscape. The country is at the crossroads. "The government is genuinely committed to multi-party democracy," Ethiopia's Ambassador to Egypt Amare Girma told Al-Ahram Weekly. "The election procedure was flawless and there were big public rallies both in the capital and in provincial cities. People turned out in unprecedented numbers to vote," Ambassador Girma insisted. "The opposition did recourse with the election board and courts to contest the result in a number of constituencies. And, in some instances the court reversed the election board's decision in favour of the opposition." The better life that Ethiopians want now is not only restricted to the economic sphere. They aspire to participatory decision-making, democracy and civil rights. Yet again, the tension at the heart of politics is about the rights that ordinary people have vis-à-vis those in power. Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, a former self-proclaimed Marxist- Leninist who now espouses parliamentary democracy and is a staunch champion of free market forces, espouses a curious mix of cracking down on democracy activists and of fostering a more compliant opposition that is willing and able to play a more meaningful and constructive political role. Surely his political detractors hold much the same neo-liberal views as he when it comes to matters of economy and ideology. Despite his tough language about opposition violent protests, the prime minister is acutely aware of the interest shown by Western powers in the propagation of Ethiopian democracy. The current civil disturbances will have shattered the illusion that Ethiopia is any nearer to the democratic ideal. The state clampdown only further infringes on Western notions of democracy, American and European diplomats in Addis Ababa warned. Ethiopia, meanwhile, is not too keen on Western intervention in its domestic affairs, but if its Western benefactors help redress a bad situation, their support is certainly worth contemplating. Violent protests in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa have subsided somewhat but the streets of the capital are heavily patrolled by troops in armoured vehicles. And the violence has spread to the regions. Among the worst impacted areas are Dessie, Dahr Dar, Gondar, Debre Markos and other urban centres in the disaffected Amhara region of northwestern Ethiopia. The region is a hotbed of dissent and an opposition stronghold. Violence has also spread to the cities of Dire Dawa and Harar, eastern Ethiopia, and the southern city of Awassa. The 1994 constitution turned Ethiopia into a federal republic with ethnically based regions and three autonomous city-states including the ethnically mixed Addis Ababa. But much of the disgruntled Amhara elite, who formerly dominated the Ethiopian political establishment, is yearning for the good old days when it held sway. Ethiopia has had a violent and bloodstained past. The current regime overthrew the military strongman Menguistu Haile Mariam who ruled the country with an iron fist after he overthrew Emperor Haile Selassie in a bloody coup in 1974. The Emperor was summoned to a kangaroo court and summarily executed the following year. Ethiopia's first multi-party elections took place in October 2000. The opposition's poor showing in the 2000 general elections meant that it held no more than 12 seats in the 547-seat Ethiopian parliament. The Ethiopian opposition fared far better in the May 2005 elections, but it accused the government of massive vote rigging. Indeed, the opening of the Ethiopian parliament last month was boycotted by the main opposition Coalition for Unity and Democracy Party (CUDP), a grouping of four closely-aligned political parties -- the Ethiopian Democratic Unity Party-Medihin, the All-Ethiopian Unity Party (AEUP), the Rainbow Ethiopia Movement for Democracy and Social Justice, and the Ethiopian Democratic League. The ethnic Amhara dominate the CUDP. The other main opposition party is the United Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF), a coalition of 15 parties that have a strong following in the Oromiya and southern region of the country. Oromiya, by far the largest and most populous of the country's ethnic regions, has become another hotbed of social unrest. The Oromo people, by far Ethiopia's largest ethnic group are, however, divided politically and also along religious lines -- split equally, Christians and Muslims. Meanwhile, Ethiopian President Girma Giorgis was warned of and identified the Diaspora as a source of destabilisation. Special retribution was reserved for the moneyed, two million-strong Ethiopian- American community, even though the country has benefited tremendously from the remittances of Ethiopian communities abroad. Under the leadership of Meles Zenawi the Ethiopian economy has witnessed impressive growth rates -- an unprecedented 11 per cent in 2004. But the country has a long way to go. At this year's polls, the CUDP capitalised on strong anti-government sentiment in Addia Ababa and other urban centres, partly engendered by the ruthless demolition of slums which rendered tens of thousands of city-dwellers homeless. Officially, the opposition now holds 174 seats in parliament, though they dispute the results of May's polls, the conduct of which European Union monitors described as falling far below international standards. The Ethiopian government promptly rejected such claims, stressing that the elections were free and fair. In spite of electoral irregularities, international observers applauded the estimated 90 per cent voter turnout. The CUDP claims that the ruling EPRDF has fraudulently sequestered 299 seats. However, it approves of the remaining 248 seats of which, according to the CUDP, 93 were won by the CUDP, 46 seats by the UEDF and 61 by the EPRDF. CUDP Chairman Hailu Shawel boasted his intention of removing the government by street protests and people power. "This is an act of treason", retorted the Ethiopian prime minister on state-run television. "We are fighting the ruling party with our bare hands and with no arms. I don't understand why the prime minister repeatedly accuses us of acts of treason," said Birtukan Mideksa, first vice-president of CUPD. Ethiopian government officials say the CUDP is attempting to destroy constitutional order through street violence. The Ethiopian prime minister also accused the CUDP of trying to foment ethnic strife and to divide Ethiopians along ethnic lines and create social divisions. Meanwhile, trouble is also brewing within opposition ranks. Lidetu Ayelew was recently suspended as vice-chairman of the CUDP and there are tensions between ethnic Amhara, who are seen as dominating the CUDP but who, since the advent of multi-party democracy, witnessed a pronounced erosion of their political hegemony, and other ethnic groups. With some 80 different ethno-linguistic groups, Ethiopia is a mosaic of religious, ethnic and cultural diversity. The chief of the Amhara region Ayalew Gobeze warned that those promoting CUDP objectives through street violence would be brought to book. The 1998-2000 war between Ethiopia and Eritrea ruined the once intimate political and personal relationship between the Ethiopian prime minister and his distant relative, the Eritrean leader Isaias Afeworki. The Ethiopian prime minister's mother is an Eritrean from Adi Quala and both Horn of Africa leaders are ethnic Tigray, a group that today dominates the political establishments of the two neighbouring countries. As quiet returns, a majority of the country's 26 million registered voters are expected to back the government's bid for a third term in office. Nonetheless, there is one clear lesson that Ethiopia could learn, this time from Sudan -- how to integrate the opposition into the political mainstream.
