Regional powers in the Horn of Africa work towards alternative politics in Somalia, writes Gamal Nkrumah The most discussed topic in the Horn of Africa this week has been whether the Inter- Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) is best suited to contain the rapidly deteriorating security situation in Somalia. Events took a turn for the worse this week with the intensification of fighting in the war-torn country. Somali President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed conceded publicly that "the future of the country is in the hands of bandits, militants and Al-Qaeda". Ahmed heads the Transitional National Government (TNG) of Somalia which is recognised as the sole legitimate government of Somalia and backed politically by the United Nations, the Arab League and militarily by the African Union. This political alliance of the TNG and the international community is especially pernicious in the concerted fight against Islamist militancy. Somalis have been grappling with questions of religion and in particular the imposition of Islamic Sharia law in the country. Such measures if implemented will meet stiff resistance from the TNG, Somalia's neighbours and the Western powers. The critical question is how to defend the TNG from the rising power of the militant Islamists. Indeed, the IGAD summit in Addis Ababa focussed specifically on this particular conundrum. Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, currently chairman of the IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and government, is especially averse to the notion of a militant Islamist regime running the show in Somalia. And worse, the Islamists may spearhead military incursions into Ethiopia, which is the neighbouring country that has the longest borders with Somalia and has a large and restive ethnic Somali minority to boot. The civil war in Somalia is not spurred by tribalism but rather by religion. This quintessentially domestic issue has given rise to a classic turf fight in the country. Moreover, it has mobilised the country's neighbours against the opponents of the TNG. The presidents of Kenya, Djibouti and Uganda Mwai Kibaki, Ismail Omar Guelleh and Yoweri Museveni respectively flew to Addis Ababa for the IGAD summit. Uganda has the largest contingency of troops in the 6,000-strong African Union (AU) peacekeeping force in Somalia (AMISOM). Kenya, Djibouti and Uganda, like Ethiopia, are members of IGAD. And so is Sudan. Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir also attended the IGAD summit in Addis Ababa even though his visit to Ethiopia was focussed on informal meetings with Sudanese opposition figures. Egypt, too, dispatched Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit, Minister of State for International Cooperation Faiza Abul- Naga together with Minister of Agriculture Amin Abaza at the head of a large political and business delegation to Ethiopia that happened to coincide with the IGAD summit. "The latest flare up in Mogadishu which should in no way affect the good work the TFG has embarked upon to expand its efforts in speeding up national reconciliation," the Ethiopian premier extrapolated. Somalia is on the move, but not necessarily in the direction that its neighbours are heading. Somalia is inching closer to a Taliban-like state run along the lines of Afghanistan before the United States-led invasion of the country in 2001. As far as Somalia's neighbours are concerned, better regulation of the process of Islamisation in Somalia is needed to weed out the most militant elements. But if this cannot be done regionally and internationally, it cannot be done at all. The social and political challenges that face the countries of the Horn of African and IGAD are interconnected. These nations are exposed to problems that donor countries sympathise with and understand. The need for urgency is crystal clear. The 15th Extraordinary Session of IGAD convened in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa this week fully takes this factor into account. The leaders assembled in Addis Ababa decided to deploy another 2,000 peacekeeping troops in Somalia. They did not specify which countries the troops will hail from. However, Sheikh Mukhtar Abu Zubeir, the leader of the most militant Islamist group in Somalia, the Mujahideen Youth Movement, better known as Al-Shabab (Youth), declared the AMISOM and the governments of Burundi and Uganda who provide the bulk of AMISOM as "apostate and the enemies of Islam". Egypt, for the moment, is more concerned with expanding trade relations with Ethiopia, even though it is also concerned about the deplorable situation in Somalia. Before you discard this bit of information as a spoof in poor taste, note that many of the Somali factions regard Egypt as one of the most important patrons of the Somali peace and reconciliation process. The prevailing view among Somalia's neighbours is that the TFG is not fully committed to cleaning up its own mess. However, they are all committed to supporting the TFG and its allies against the TNG. The chief argument against IGAD intervention has been that the regional grouping has historically been dominated politically by Ethiopia. This is why the participation of other regional powers is considered of utmost importance. Many of the key members of both the TNG and Ahl Al-Sunna Wal-Jamaa, the main Sufi organisation and more moderate rival to the Al-Shabab, were once active members of the Council of Islamic Courts (CICs). Zenawi urged the establishment of a "sustainable funding mechanism for the sustainable security forces upon development and deployment in Somalia." He is currently courting the Ahl Al-Sunna Wal-Jamaa to join his TNG. "The situation in Somalia still continues to be a challenge to our continent, to our region the Horn of Africa, and to the world at large," Zenawi summed up. The political backdrop was framed in no uncertain terms. The militant Islamists of Somalia have ossified into something of a xenophobic sulk. The truth is that much of Somali political business is conducted in a legal grey zone. It is this lack of clarity that is intensifying the fighting, creating a climate of violence that is hard to contain. The least damaging solution now is to galvanise moderate forces prepared to work for a reform agenda. Somali politicians have created a looking- glass into which they suspend the sordid reality of Somalia and force its long-suffering people into taking up arms. The Islamist Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) and its most dynamic components Hizbul-Islam under the leadership of Sheikh Dhaher Aweis in conjunction with Al-Shabab constitute a threat against a secularist-run Somalia, politically aligned with its neighbours, especially Ethiopia. "Somalia has witnessed dangerous attacks in its history perpetrated by one dangerous terrorist coalition under the umbrella of Al-Qaeda," the Somali president concluded.
