Amir 's shock election as Labour Party leader has already lived up to the translation of his name in Hebrew: "breakthrough", writes Graham Usher It had all the weariness of an exercise in nostalgia. But the 11th-hour appearance of Amir at the 12 November rally marking the 10th anniversary of the murder of Yitzak Rabin transformed what had been a threnody of loss into an electric message of hope. "The path of Oslo is still very much alive," he told the 80,000 faithfuls gathered in Tel Aviv's Rabin Square. had just been elected leader of Israel's "opposition" Labour Party, a result that shocked just about every pundit in Israel, including Labour's octogenarian incumbent, Shimon Peres. This was not the only cause for surprise. Born into a poor family of Moroccan origin, former leader of Israel's Histradut Trade Union federation and long time advocate of peace with the Palestinians, is the first Israeli of Moroccan descent to become leader of the Labour Party, in most Israelis' eyes, the very bastion of Ashkenazi power and privilege. He is also the first not to have been nurtured in the matrix of Israel's military establishment, the first whose worldview is not framed by the barrel of a gun. There were several reasons for his victory. One was the complacency of Peres's campaign, assuming -- again -- that leadership would be his by right rather than by advocacy. Another was the low (60 per cent) turn out for the primary, giving greater weight to grassroots activists rather than middle-rank functionaries. But the main reason was his promise of change. Throughout his campaign, vowed to pull Labour out of the coalition with Likud, replacing its policies of neo- liberalism at home and unilateralism abroad with a renewed commitment to social justice and peace, including among those "second Israel" constituencies long spurned by Labour. "We will reach out to the development towns, to the Sephardis (Jews of Arab and Asian descent), to the new immigrants and to the Arabs," he told reporters after his victory. It remains to be seen whether will be true to that vow. But other repercussions are already being felt, like the near certainty of early elections. has instructed Labour members of parliament to support a no confidence vote this Wednesday if Ariel Sharon refuses to set a date for new elections. Sharon has said he will talk to on Thursday, but perhaps not even then. There is also the impact of 's rise on Sharon own tenuous position within Likud. Some believe this will expedite the emergence of a new nationalist centrist bloc in Israeli politics, with Sharon and Peres leaving their respective parties to form a new one -- the so-called "big bang" theory. Others believe it will rally Likud behind Sharon, alarmed by Labour's renewed popularity in the polls and 's redistributive plans for the economy as well as his promise of negotiations with the Palestinians. Likud's economic guru -- and arch rival to Sharon -- Binyamin Netanyahu has already warned that the new Labour leader "constitutes a real danger to Israeli society and economy". What is the significance of the factor to the Palestinians, aside from once more putting their non-relations with Israel into the mix of elections and electioneering? was one of the first members of Peace Now, a founding member of Israel's premier human rights organisation B'tselem and is a signatory to the 2002 Geneva Accord, a "virtual" peace agreement in which Israel withdraws from 98 per cent of the West Bank in return for the Palestinians' practical renunciation of the right of return. At the Rabin rally he invoked Oslo in terms that could have been scripted by a speechwriter for Abu Mazen. "Only if we leave the [occupied] territories, halt the violence that erupts from there, will we halt also the violence in our midst. We need a moral roadmap, a roadmap for ending the occupation and signing a permanent status agreement." But Palestinians have a long experience with Israeli politicians who promise peace in opposition only to practice war in government. They also know the odds are massively stacked against , at least in prospect of victory at the next elections. Not only must he defeat Sharon and the enormous nationalist consensus he represents. He must also suborn large parts of his own party wedded, no less than Likud, to the wall, expanding settlement blocs, separation and imposed "states with provisional borders". He will also face resistance from the army, which has long-view relations with the Palestinians as its own. Only one thing is certain: if there are new Israeli elections on the horizon, and if they are met with a new round of Israeli-Palestinian violence, it will strengthen Sharon and the militarist solutions he espouses. But if the calm can be sustained, and if the Palestinians can present a united front not only for their readiness for final status negotiations but also their terms for peace, it will strengthen and the second Israel constituencies he says he wants to bring behind him. Then it should be clearer whether is the Israeli partner the Palestinians have long sought or whether he is another false messiah in the mould of Rabin, Barak and Peres. What he has already proved -- by his own victory and not just to the Palestinians -- is that Sharon is not, was not and will never be the partner.
