Domestic blunders in steering Lebanon to safety are turning an existing domestic crisis into a potential impasse, reports Hicham Safieddine Lebanon is bustling with political developments on a daily basis. But most seem heading in conflicting directions, so much so that it is becoming increasingly hard to discern a potential path of recovery and reconciliation that could snatch the country from its chronic political paralysis. On the surface, two events taking place in Lebanon paint a rosy picture of things to come. The first is the highly publicised roundtable dialogue scheduled to start this week in parliament under tight security measures. The second is the completion of a draft for a new electoral law, which some say is expected to weaken the pull of confessionalism in Lebanon. But it is unlikely these two developments will turn the tide of deepening crises the country is going through. To begin with, the government is expected to postpone looking into the law until after the roundtable discussions begin. A leaked version of the law indicates it proposes lowering the voting age from 21 to 18 and capping campaign funds. Little is known in the way of reducing the impact of sectarianism on results. Meanwhile pundits say chances of the dialogue itself succeeding are slim. The initiative to bring all the Lebanese factions together to discuss the sticky issues they have been bickering over was spearheaded by House Speaker Nabih Berri. The debates were set to tackle the three hottest issues: Lebanese- Syrian relations, the investigation into the killing of former Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri and UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which touches on the issue of the presidency and calls for disarming Lebanese militias -- a thinly-veiled reference to Hizbullah. Officially termed the National Dialogue Conference, it was set to involve leaders from the highest echelons of the political landscape, including ones who are not members in parliament but play a pivotal role, such as Hizbullah Secretary- General Hassan Nasrallah and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea. But before talks kicked off, prospective participants were already haggling over which topics were to be discussed and which, on the other hand, are simply beyond approach. Other points of disagreement included who would moderate the talks. At one point, rows broke over who represents certain sects and who does not. The mood of optimism and reconciliation the dialogue was supposed to foster could hardly hide the intensifying rhetoric of antagonism among most political figures. The meet comes against the backdrop of unrelenting campaigning to unseat Lebanese President Emile Lahoud. The 14 of March coalition, composed namely of the Hariri-founded Future Movement, the Druze led by Walid Jumblatt, and the Lebanese Forces headed by Geagea, had circulated a parliamentary petition declaring that lawmakers had been forced to vote for the extension of Lahoud's term in 2004, and thus his term is unconstitutional. But now, they have launched a street petition aiming at garnering the signatures of one million citizens, calling for the president to step down or be removed from office. There were also threats that, if all else failed, members of the anti-Syria bloc would storm the presidential palace to unseat the president. Opponents of the referral of the issue to public opinion, such as head of the Lebanese Patriotic Movement Michel Aoun, have insisted that only constitutional means should be used to elect a new president. Aoun, himself a top candidate for the job, struck a pact of understanding with Hizbullah a fortnight ago, and is not in favor of removing Lahoud before there is a general agreement on a substitute. It remains to be seen whether Aoun, who according to election results is the most popular Christian leader, will be wooed by the 14 March forces. But observers say offering him anything short of the presidential seat is unlikely to win him over. Hizbullah is no less adamant that no further mobilisation of the street against the president take place. Last week in a seminar in the southern city of Ghazieh, Hizbullah member and Energy Minister Mohamed Feniesh warned of the consequences. "Turning to the street to resolve a political dispute is something extremely dangerous because this road will lead us to a crisis, a clash, and will undermine stability and threaten communal peace." He argued that if extending Lahoud's term was unconstitutional then the 2000 electoral law, under which the current parliament was elected -- including the legislators calling for Lahoud's ouster -- is also invalid. Meanwhile Lahoud continues to hang on to his post. He has repeatedly vowed to remain in power until his term ends in 2007 despite near-total political isolation. He upped the ante this week by accusing the 14 of March coalition of receiving support from Israel. His statement came shortly after a surprise visit by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to Lebanon in which she did not visit the presidential palace at Baabda, and instead renewed Washington's support to the forces trying to remove Lahoud. With political leaders reaching an impasse over the issue of the presidency, the role of Arab and Western capitals has returned to the forefront as a way out. The National Dialogue Conference may just be the last opportunity to prove to the outside world that such regular intervention by foreign powers is no longer necessary.
