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Not the right man
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 09 - 03 - 2006

Iraq's political crisis deepens as pressure mounts on Al-Jaafari to step down
When Iraqi Planning Minister Burham Saleh was asked about the political squabbling over Prime Minister Ibrahim Al-Jaafari, he said: "Jaafari is not the politician who can prevent a civil war from happening in Iraq." Saleh was visiting Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani to brief him on the reasons why the Kurdish Alliance wants Jaafari out of office.
Saleh's words reflect the views embraced by a growing number of political forces that have been mounting pressure throughout the week on the Iraqi premier to leave office.
As violence in Iraq continued to claim more lives, with sectarian targeted killings the order of the day, calls have been made for the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), the majority bloc in the assembly, to name another candidate for the premier post other than Jaafari. Iraq, in the words of President Jalal Talabani, would face hard times if Jaafari "does not respond to people's demand."
Despite pressure exercised on Iraq's top religious authority to make clear his views on the issue, Sistani remains silent. His spokesperson, Hamed Al-Khafaf, told reporters on Tuesday that "Sistani does not want to interfere in the crisis over Jaafari's post."
The trigger to the crisis has been the Samaraa shrine bombing and Jaafari's dismal performance relative to it. Jaafari's government was held partially responsible for failing to prevent the attack from happening. Last week a leaked memo from the Ministry of National Security Affairs confirmed that members in Jaafari's government knew beforehand that the shrine has been a target of terrorist attacks but failed to protect it adequately. A coalition of Sunni and Kurdish forces began a drive last week to block Jaafari from continuing as head of government.
Iraqi political forces have been struggling to form a broad-based national unity government after legislative election results came out a month ago. The prime minister position is the lynchpin. Jaafari ran for the post against Adel Abdul-Mahdi, a UIA candidate, and won by one vote -- thanks to Sadrist members in the coalition. The UIA faces an internal division between two camps: the Jaafari camp, supported by Sadrists and Jaafari's Al-Dawa Party, on the one hand, and Abdul Aziz Al-Hakim's camp backing former Finance Minister, Abdul-Mahdi.
Veteran politician Adnan Pachachi joined the anti- Jaafari chorus when he said that Jaafari was not "fit to run the country at this crucial time in Iraq's history".
Last week, Talabani made no bones of the fact that in his opinion Jaafari is unfit to lead. Jaafari's surprising visit to Turkey last week fuelled debate surrounding his future. Talabani, angered by the visit, harshly criticised the prime minister for failing to notify the president or any government members of the visit.
This week more Iraqi politicians joined ranks with Talabani and the Kurdish Alliance in their demand for the UIA to replace Jaafari. On Monday, both the Iraqi National List (INL) headed by Iyad Allawi and the Iraqi Accordance Front (IAF) expressed reservations on the continuation of Jaafari as premier. Adnan Al-Duleimi, head of the IAF, said that the Front, the biggest Sunni bloc in the assembly with 41 seats, is considering alternatives to Jaafari.
Sources inside the UIA told Ashraq Al-Awsat newspaper that it was Al-Hakim, head of the UIA, who urged the Kurdish Alliance and the INL to take this stand against Jaafari. He is reported to have sought the help of other forces to oust Jaafari from the top post. Al-Hakim, according to the report, seeks to pave the way for the UIA's Adel Abdul-Mahdi to replace Jaafari.
Prominent Kurdish politician Mahmud Osman told Al-Ahram Weekly that many key Iraqi forces, including the Kurdish Alliance, IAF and INL, had initially objected to Jaafari's candidacy for the post. "The UIA has the right to nominate a candidate since they represent the majority in the newly elected parliament, but this candidate should have a consensus from other forces because he will be the prime minister of all Iraqis." The three groups control more than 140 of the 275 seats in the new parliament, compared with 128 controlled by the UIA
Osman pointed out that the Kurdish Alliance demanded that the UIA names another candidate. The Iraqi constitution gives the president the right to assign another candidate to form the government in case the majority candidate fails to do so within one month of his assignment.
The political crisis has left the country suffering from a serious leadership vacuum that could undermine the political process. In an attempt to salvage the situation, Talabani said he would call the country's new parliament into session for the first time next week to begin a 60-day period during which the legislature must elect a new head of state, prime minister and cabinet.
While Iraqi politicians have been made busy with the squabbling over Jaafari's post, the country continued to descend deeper into sectarian violence. Sectarian killings claimed the lives of five on Sunday, all of them Sunnis. According to official estimates, 500 have died as a result of sectarian violence since the Samaraa bombing. Sunni forces have blamed Jaafari for what they described as Interior Ministry sponsored death squads that target Sunni mosques and figures. Statements posted on the IAF's website blamed Jaafari's government for quell the chaos that followed the Samaraa attack. "It -- the government -- did not take any measures to solve the security crisis that could have pushed the country into civil war," said one statement.
Although both Sunni and Shia clerics have made joint public appeals for calm and restraint, violence has continued. UN envoy to Iraq, Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, expressed serious concern about current human rights violations, citing reports of the excessive use of force, illegal detention centres, and disappearances.


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