Is Iran's success in enriching uranium the beginning or the end? Rasha Saad looks at which way to go Iran's announcement that it has succeeded in enriching uranium was the week's big story. The London-based Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper was a platform for pundits whose views were a mixture of worries and confusion over the Iranian move. Ali Nouri Zadeh, an Iranian researcher at the London-based Centre for Arab-Iranian Studies, wrote in Asharq Al-Awsat, "the danger has become clearer now after Iran's ability to enrich uranium at 3.5 degrees. The entire region has to brace for a crucial period ahead." However, controversy over whether the Iranian escalation is the beginning of bold confrontation with the West or is to save face for concessions, was much debated. Mohamed Sadiqi, a professor of nuclear physics, was quoted as saying it was clear to those following the activities of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the past weeks that it was mobilising all its capabilities to enrich even a limited quantity of uranium prior to the arrival of International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed El-Baradei in Tehran. According to Sadiqi, Ahmadinejad's announcement would perhaps be the key to solving the current standoff so that the regime could save face and at the same time accept the IAEA's demands, "considering that Ahmadinejad's announcement that Iran had joined the nuclear club was coupled with a pledge that Iran had no intention of using its nuclear capabilities in producing atomic bombs." Amir Taheri, also in Asharq Al-Awsat, supported the idea. The announcement that Iran now masters the full nuclear fuel cycle and that it has enriched uranium to a minimum acceptable level in laboratory conditions may be no big deal to better informed citizens. Taheri reminds readers that Iran had the scientific and technological capacity to do so in 1977 but lost that know-how when Ayatollah Khomeini shut down the nuclear programme, declaring it "satanic". Thus, Taheri insists, "the issue here is not uranium enrichment but finding a way for the Islamic Republic to walk out of a high-risk confrontation with the United Nations without losing face." Taheri suggests that Iran's next step could be to announce that, having done what it wanted to do, it has now decided to stop doing it for a while as a gesture of goodwill and that it has less than two weeks to make such an announcement before the 28 April deadline set by the United Nations Security Council. Taheri also believes that Ahmadinejad has achieved his tactical goals and has no reason to provoke a confrontation at this point. His first goal, Taheri claims, was to discredit his two predecessors, Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohamed Khatami, by portraying them as weaklings who gave in to pressure and agreed to stop uranium enrichment in the first place. Ahmadinejad's second goal as underlined by Taheri "was to appear to be acting from a position of strength and once again he has succeeded." Taheri concludes that "having developed its image as a major military power that cannot be bullied by anyone, the Islamic republic is now in a position to show magnanimity in the service of peace and understanding." Writers of Asharq Al-Awsat also reflected fears of Iranian ambitions. Tareq Al-Homayed charged that since the Iranian announcement there has been no comment from Gulf countries. "We have yet to hear their opinions about the move and its dangers. We have yet to see any indication that an urgent summit on any level will be held. Shall we say that Gulf countries are puzzled and at a loss?" From Asharq Al-Awsat Abdul-Rahman Al-Rashed considered Gulf fears from Iran to be legitimate. "The governments of the region did not believe Iran before, and they will not believe it in the future when it says it possesses a nuclear weapon that is aimed only against Israel." Al-Rashed wrote that Iran had previously used military force to attack Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and occupied the last of its islands in 1991. It had also intercepted Qatari warships in the Gulf waters. He added that it is no secret that it also has a hand in security problems in Bahrain, in addition to its activities in Iraq. Al-Rashed added that right from the start, Iran denied it had nuclear facilities. When these facilities were exposed, it began to talk about a limited scientific nature they possess. After the reports of inspectors of the IAEA exposed its lies, it admitted that it seeks to enrich uranium but only to produce energy. "This is an unconvincing argument by a country that is the fourth in the world in the possession of oil, which is cheaper than atomic energy in terms of price and effort." Al-Rashed concludes that the time line of the Iranian nuclear story leaves no room except for scepticism, fear and getting ready.
