Is the post-World War II order that has buttressed peace and prosperity in Europe since 1945 now coming to an end? Recent events across Europe seem to suggest that this is indeed the case. The protests in France by the gilets jaunes movement are but the latest in a series of crises that have afflicted the European continent. Other recent crises have included the debacle over Brexit in the UK, increased political polarisation and fragmentation in Germany and the rise of extreme right-wing populist parties and their ascent to power in Italy, Poland and Hungary. The post-war order in Europe was based on a number of fundamental pillars, all of which are now coming under attack. The first of these is the European Union, which was established after World War II to create a web of dense economic, social and political ties between the countries of Western Europe to ensure that conflict would not arise once again between them. The second pillar of the post-war order in Europe was the transatlantic alliance that was institutionalised in the creation of NATO that ensured military cooperation between Western Europe and the United States in the face of military threats from the Soviet Union and the Communist bloc. NATO and the EU were supposed to ensure continued peace and prosperity in Europe. These two institutions were a defining feature of the Cold War era, and together they constituted key pillars of what came to be known as the Western Bloc that stood in opposition to the Eastern Bloc led by the Soviet Union. In addition to the institutions that cemented the Western alliance, this defined itself in terms of its commitment to a number of shared values, namely liberalism and democracy, open markets and human rights. These values stood in opposition to those of the Communist Bloc which championed central planning, state ownership of the means of production and authoritarian governance. In their domestic politics, the Western European countries rejected the twin ideologies of fascism and communism and embraced political centrism, with power alternating in most between centre-left and centre-right parties or coalitions for much of the post-war era. Radical parties on the left and the right remained marginal in most European countries until recently. Economically, the European countries embraced policies that championed open markets and open borders for goods and labour. However, most European countries also embraced the welfare state model, relying on high and progressive taxation to provide generous social benefits to their citizens, including free education and healthcare and unemployment benefits. Moreover, labour laws across Europe championed the rights of workers vis-à-vis capital and ensured that workers were protected from the fluctuations of market forces. The end of the Cold War in the late 1980s, German reunification and the dissolution of the former Soviet Union constituted a triumphant moment for the European Union and the Western alliance, with many declaring the end of history and the final triumph of the West. Capitalising on this triumph, NATO and the EU embarked on ambitious projects of expansion to integrate the countries of Eastern and Central Europe and to expand the Western alliance, leaving Russia feeling increasingly vulnerable and isolated. However, history did not stop there, and over the past decade a number of important developments have converged to undermine the post-war order in Europe and beyond. On the international level, the rise of President Donald Trump in America and President Vladimir Putin in Russia have served to undermine the transatlantic alliance and the institutions that buttressed it in important ways.
NEW CHALLENGES: Upon assuming office, Trump abandoned one of the main tenets of American foreign policy in the pos-twar era, namely the commitment to European integration and security and to the transatlantic alliance. In July this year, Trump went as far as to maintain that the EU was a “foe” of the United States, and he has imposed new tariffs on European goods and shown support for Brexit and other anti-EU measures in Europe. Similarly, Trump has threatened on a number of occasions to withdraw from NATO and has accused European nations of “free-riding” and called on them to repay the US money spent to guarantee the security of Europe. The growing power and influence exerted by Putin's Russia in the world is also slowly but surely chipping away at the foundations of European integration, especially in Eastern and Central Europe. Putin's Russia has proved adept at using new technologies to promote views and groups antithetical to the EU project across Europe. There is evidence that Russia manipulated social media to push the Brexit vote. Similarly, Russia has actively supported and championed the rise of extreme right-wing populist movements across Europe, with the aim of undermining the European Union which these groups largely oppose. On the economic level, the pressures of globalisation and the 2008 economic crisis have driven governments across Europe to adopt neo-liberal economic policies and austerity measures. These have often been pushed through as a result of direct pressure from the EU and in spite of broad-based popular opposition, as was the case in Greece. They have led to the withering away of the welfare state across Europe and to growing economic insecurity among important segments of the European working and middle classes, whose incomes have been steadily declining or stagnating. Income inequality has risen across Europe, with wealth and power becoming increasingly concentrated. Moreover, these measures have failed to produce the promised economic recovery, and many European economies continue to stagnate or to grow at a very low rate. Another important development that has undermined the European project is growing pressure from immigration. The expansion of the EU first to include the countries of Southern Europe and then those of Eastern and Central Europe has led to an influx of immigrants from some of these poorer countries into the wealthier countries of Western Europe. Most menial and low-paying jobs in the West of the continent are now performed by citizens from these countries. Additionally, political and economic crises in Africa and the Middle East have driven millions of people to cross the sea by legal and illegal means to seek refuge in Europe. Increasingly, European countries have large and growing minorities of African and Middle Eastern origin. This influx of large number of refugees and immigrants has created a backlash among many in Europe, especially among the working classes which may place the blame for their social and economic problems on the presence of such immigrants and minorities. Moreover, the growing cultural and religious diversification of Europe as a result of the influx of immigrants has led to increasing tensions between dominant majorities and cultural minorities over what constitutes rightful expressions of faith and culture in European society. A final variable that has undermined the European project over the last decade has been declining trust in the political elite and the rapid rise of anti-establishment figures who challenge the hegemony of this elite. The alternation of power between a small group of parties and elites on the centre-right and the centre-left in Europe has narrowed the political landscape and led many of these elites to develop entrenched interests and close ties to the business community and hence to promote an economic agenda that is favourable to it. This had led to a growing perception that the political elite across Europe is corrupt and self-interested and has driven a growing number of voters to vote for anti-establishment figures who challenge the status quo. The convergence of these variables over recent years has helped prop up new social and political forces that have successfully appealed to the grievances of growing segments of the European population. Increasingly, centre-left and centre-right parties are losing their ability to win significant majorities or pluralities in elections that can enable them to govern effectively and to form viable coalitions. Growing numbers of voters in Europe are voting for extreme right-wing populist parties that have adopted an anti-EU, anti-establishment and anti-immigrant agenda. Such populist parties have so far succeeded in rising to power in Italy, Poland, Hungary and Romania. In countries such as Germany, France, the UK, Austria and Sweden, extreme right-wing parties have succeeded in making important electoral gains, and these are likely to increase in coming elections. In the UK, the extreme right-wing UKIP Party in alliance with figures within the mainstream Conservative Party such as former foreign secretary Boris Johnson succeeded in pushing through the Brexit vote that threatens to undermine the European Union. Even the recent protests in France, though they are for the most part leaderless, are seen by many as a manifestation of some of the grievances that have propelled the extreme right-wing populist movement forward, and many believe that extreme-right leader Marine Le Pen stands to gain the most from these protests during future elections. The future of Europe thus seems to be on the line, with the rise of extreme right-wing populist parties and movements increasing the prospect of turmoil in this once very prosperous and peaceful region of the world. 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The writer is a senior researcher at the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.
