Reactions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to Donald Trump's electoral success varied widely. The Republican candidate's campaign speeches and remarks triggered both alarm and relief, depending on which side one sits in this sharply polarised region, especially over the subject of whether or not to include Islamists in government. In Libya, where the polarisation has grown unprecedentedly acute during the past two years, the principle dividing line is between supporters of and opponents to General Khalifa Haftar. The first camp believes that the Trump presidency will strengthen their hand in the civil war that Haftar is leading against their Islamist adversaries. The opposing camp is very wary and is waiting to see how things develop once Trump officially assumes power 20 January, 2017. Ziyad Akl of Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies predicts that there will be no significant change in US policy towards the Libyan crisis before at least six months after Trump takes office. Nevertheless, Akl believes that the opinions of the president-elect appear to coincide with the Egyptian approach on how to resolve this crisis. Cairo supports strengthening the role of the Libyan national army under the command of General Haftar who still rejects the current formula of the UN-brokered Libyan Political Accord (LPA) signed in Skhirat, Morocco, in December last year. Akl pointed to Trump's highly controversial remarks during the campaigns in which he vehemently attacked Barack Obama's Democratic administration on the way it handled various issues in the Middle East, including the political and security crisis in Libya. Trump held that Obama's policies and actions strengthened the positions of extremist groups in Libya and elsewhere in the region. Akl believes that the president-elect is keen on the “firm” model of government in the MENA region and this might work to the advantage of the Islamists' adversaries. Libyan researcher Hisham Al-Shalawi concurs that we need to wait until after Trump chooses his team of ministers and advisors, and especially his secretaries of state and defence and other officials responsible for foreign and military policy in MENA, before we can make any solid predictions. However, he too noted the “great joy” with which news of the Trump victory was received in eastern Libya, where supporters of Haftar prevail, because they believe his presidency will work in their favour in their conflict against their Islamist adversaries in the West. However, Al-Shalawi raised another dimension regarding US foreign policy towards Libya. The new Trump administration will first have to contend with the question of the role of the EU which regards Libya as its backdoor. “It would not be easy for the Trump administration to take an openly antagonistic position towards the Skhirat accord and the government institutions it produced,” he said. This means that the provisions of the political accord signed 17 December 2015 will continue to govern how Washington handles the Libyan crisis. Al-Shalawi observed that some Libyans expect Trump to give the government of Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi a free hand in managing the Libyan crisis because of the similarity between their views on this matter. At the same time, he does not rule out the possibility of the Haftar camp achieving “remarkable progress” during the Trump administration. Nevertheless, he stressed that “all this remains in the realm of pure conjecture” until the newly elected US president takes his first decisions regarding Libya “in February at the very soonest”. During his electoral campaign, Trump also vowed that, if elected, he would intervene more effectively in order to realise a solution to the Libyan crisis. In one of his campaign speeches, he indicated that he would even be willing to intervene militarily in Libya, where Hillary Clinton created “a mess”, in order to put an end to extremist groups, especially the Islamic State group (ISIS). Claiming that ISIS controls the oil fields in Libya, he said: “ISIS has the oil. And then you say if ISIS has the oil, why aren't we blockading so they can't sell it? Why aren't we bombing the hell out of [it]?” Trump raised the possibility of another US military intervention just as he slammed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee, for arguing in favour of the 2011 NATO bombing campaign that ousted Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi. “Her decision to go in — and this was her baby, Libya — was a disaster.”
RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES: According to Libyan political science researcher Anis Al-Fituri, “what we [in Libya] should be asking is how do we identify the risks and opportunities if change occurs” in US policy towards the Libyan crisis. He held that Libyans were hovering in a stage of anticipation and that the situation in Libya was revolving in place while everywhere else, regionally and internationally, kept moving. The Levant is undergoing “major changes”, he said, while the Maghreb to the west of Libya is “gradually changing” and without military and political upheaval. Al-Fituri also addressed the Turkish role in this regard. “The Turks are trying to pull the rug of Islamic authority from under Egypt's feet,” he said, referring to the Turkish regime's attempt to present itself as a new civilisational model for the region and to cast itself as a regional leader. “The Turks are intervening in Iraq and Syria” in what is “undoubtedly a new experience of its kind” in the power struggles that have been playing out in the region for the past century. Egypt, meanwhile, “is trying to remain standing on its feet in the middle of an earthquake on all sides,” Al-Fituri said. Decision-makers in Cairo need to handle this grave danger very professionally, especially given the intense rivalry between regional powers over regional leadership and influencing the course of the region's crises, particularly that in Libya, Egypt's Western neighbour. However, he stressed that the efficacy of the Egyptian role during the Trump era “will be contingent on the ability of the Egyptian government to work through the medium of an Egyptian social structure that can serve as a solid foundation that will strengthen Egypt's pioneering role in the region.” In Al-Fituri's opinion, any change in US foreign policy towards the MENA region and the Libyan crisis in particular will be contingent on the economic factor. If there is no new economic crisis in the US, Washington's policy will continue as is. But in the event of another economic crisis, change will be inevitable because the economy is one of the primary determinants of US foreign policy. Interestingly, the American CNN news network has a pessimistic prognosis on Trump's chances of success in Libya. In a report on its Website last Friday, it observed that a “messy situation” awaits Trump in Libya and that this “has been made worse by hundreds of competing well-armed militia and dozens of tribes in a confusing struggle for dominance. Gaddafi's legacy was a state ready to fail the moment he was killed in 2011.” Political science professor at Omar Al-Mukhtar University in eastern Libya, Ramadan Bin Taher, emphasised another important dimension regarding the future of US foreign policy towards Libya under Trump and the extent to which the joy or alarm felt within the rival Libyan camps is warranted. “It is the institution that rules in the US, not the individual,” he said, adding that the decision-making process in the US “is not based on furnishing information to the president in light of which he takes decisions.” Rather, “decision-making in the US is the sum product of political balances, the participation of many institutions and certain social conditions.” He then pointed out that “US policy in the Middle East and in Libya in particular is clear. It pursues its interests and it does not care about the form of government that will emerge — military, Islamic, democratic or otherwise — as long as it serves US interests.” He noted that the US's historical record in the region supports this. “If the government that is formed [in Libya] does not protect US interests, it will fight it with all available means,” Bin Taher continued. “In view of the current situation in Libya and the prevailing awareness, no system of government will be formed without the Americans' approval… Everyone, whether military men, Islamists or tribal and regional forces, will be trying to win America's affection in order to gain legitimacy abroad.” But ultimately, he concluded, “the US will operate in accordance with what it perceives to be the realities on the ground and whether these produce results conducive to its interests” in Libya and in MENA in general.
