In Manama, Bahrain, Dina Ezzat follows an election process that could set the ground for societal tensions Next week's second round of parliamentary elections in Bahrain will decide whether the second elected Bahraini parliament will be dominated by Sunni hardliners or by a coalition of Shia -- also mostly hardliners -- and liberals. Judging by the results of the first round of elections that opened Saturday, yielding results Sunday and Monday, the Shia-majority, Sunni-ruled kingdom seems set to move in the direction of two parallel confrontations. First, between Shia and Sunnis, who are likely to share representation; second, between the pro-US government and its appointed Shura Council, host to the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, and the opposition-dominated parliament that has a strong and radical voice. "I am not sure where this country is heading. This is a country with a broad Shia, mostly radical, population and a Sunni government. Now it has a strong Shia presence in the lower house of parliament and while confrontations might not be imminent they may be inevitable," commented one Manama-based Arab diplomat. Speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly on condition of anonymity, the source said that while Shia political groups have been insisting they are not preoccupied with Shia versus Sunni issues, "the fact of the matter is that none have overlooked what happened in Iraq following the outbreak of violent Sunni-Shia confrontations." This week, Bahrain's main Shia opposition group, Al-Wefaq (Accord) National Islamic Society, won 16 seats out of the 40 contested in elections. Al-Wefaq -- popular in the most influential governorates of Bahrain -- had fielded 17 candidates. Al-Wefaq's liberal allies have also secured a presence, though their victory was less significant. The other leading bloc is that of radical Sunnis as represented in Muslim Brotherhood or ultra Salafi (radical) groups who took 14 seats. Within a week Bahrainis will learn who exactly will control their new -- and as many commentators say, fairly elected -- parliament. What they know already is that radicals will dominate it. Many commentators are already predicting a rough ride ahead. This week's parliamentary elections, coupled with nationwide municipal elections, are part of a political reform programme instigated, albeit at a slow pace, by King Hamad Ben Issa, who ascended to power in 1999. The King's "reluctant" embrace of reform, some Bahraini citizens and Manama- based foreign diplomats told the Weekly, might be shaken up by the rise of Shia political groupings and radical groups in general. Many Bahrainis believe that King Hamed wants to introduce carefully measured reforms that live up to the expectations of his people -- who are no newcomers to demands for democracy -- and of the US, his major political ally that has been pressing for democratisation. It is clear to all, however, that neither the King nor his closest regional ally, Saudi Arabia (a country with entrenched Shia-Sunni sensitivities), is willing to compromise the Bahrain's traditional Sunni rule. Indeed, informed sources suggest that over the past few years Saudi Arabia has been providing generous financial support to Bahrain to cement the rule of Sunnis against rising Shia demands for political rights in keeping with their 80 per cent of the population majority. "The last thing that Saudi Arabia would want to see now is the rise of Shia political forces in Bahrain, because while it is true that Shias in Saudi Arabia are no more than 20 per cent of the entire population they are in control of the most oil revenue rich parts of the country," commented one foreign diplomat in Bahrain. He added that the Saudis have enough to worry about with the current political dominance of Shias in Iraq; that they do not need additional pressures from Bahrain, their best ally in the Gulf. Like many Shia figures, Ali Salman, elected leader of Al-Wefaq, has been keen to dispel the concerns of Sunnis in Bahrain and elsewhere around the Gulf. In a series of press statements made following his electoral victory this week, Salman emphasised that Shias do not seek political confrontation with Sunnis or anyone else in Bahrain. Speaking to the Weekly on the phone from Manama this week, Salman insisted repeatedly that it is "equal citizenship rights" and not "Shia rights" that his party, along with other Shia elected representatives, would seek to underline. "We are not going to speak on behalf of the Shias. We are going to speak in the interest of the entire Bahraini people," he said. According to Salman, the Shia bloc -- a term he disproved of -- will propose a set of draft laws that aim to "improve the living standards and conditions of all Bahrainis". He proffered that it is in the interest of all Bahrainis to have greater freedom of expression, especially press freedom, better public services, stricter control on budget planning and public spending, and better regulation of foreign investment. He added that it is his role as a legislator to "work on the elimination of any form of discrimination". Careful though it is, this style of discourse is not being taken well by many Sunni groups. Publicly, these groups express the sentiment of the unity of all Bahrainis: Sunnis, Shias and others. Privately, these same groups acknowledge deep concerns over the growing influence of Shias on the stability of Bahraini society. "We do not want to end up where Iraq is, with Shias and Sunnis fighting each other violently," commented one representative of a Sunni group. Perhaps part of the Sunni concern is that Shias in Bahrain have not been very quiet recently about what they deem grave discrimination in job opportunities, high-ranking positions, and in some cases access to good housing in central neighbourhoods. "It is unfair that one Bahraini will be discriminated against on the basis of religion, sect, colour, or anything else. All Bahrainis should be equal," the Sunni representative acknowledged. Divisions aside, neither Salman -- whose alliance with liberals is primarily based on the limits both wish to impose on the kingdom's close association with the US -- nor his Sunni counterparts deny a keenness to induce clear Islamic regulations within any proposed laws. Commentators and diplomats, and even some Bahraini officials, who all spoke on condition of anonymity to the Weekly, acknowledge a growing taste for fundamentalism in Bahraini society. Some said that while there was concern on the part of radical Sunnis regarding the rise of political Shia groups, the wider concern shared with Shias was about the number of women candidates. As part of their electoral campaigns, both radical Sunni and Shia groups told voters not to vote for women. As one Bahraini woman official said, this does not overturn the support of the state for the political rights of women, but it certainly challenges efforts conducted at both the governmental and non-governmental fronts to secure women's political participation both as candidates and voters. Only one woman, Latifa Al-Gaoud, out of 17 women candidates won a parliamentary seat; this despite the fact that a little over 50 per cent of Bahrain's registered 295,000 voters are women. For foreign diplomats and liberal Bahrainis this is an unmistakable sign of a radicalising society. "If you saw the kind of e-mails and text messages that have been aggressively forwarded to voters about Bahraini women falling into great immoralities as a result of their political participation you would not be surprised by the results. Nor would you be surprised to know that the many posters of women candidates that were all over the main roads in Manama and other parts of Bahrain were torn down by radical groups," the Bahraini woman official added. In a disturbing sign to the Higher Council of Women in Bahrain, led by the wife of King Hamad, Sheikha Sabika Ibrahim, this year none of the women candidates made it to the re-runs, unlike in the 2002 parliamentary elections. The lower house of the Bahraini parliament, however, no matter how radical or Shia it may turn out, is not the ultimate decision maker. The Bahraini constitution, introduced in 1973 two years after formal independence, gives the King far- reaching authority. Among his privileges are the appointment of the 40-seat upper house that provides wider representation for moderates and minorities, including Christians and Jews. In theory at least, attempts of the lower house to pass more radical -- or for that matter pro-Shia -- laws could be obstructed by the upper house. Commentators, Bahraini and foreign alike, agree, however, that it is only a matter of time before confrontations start either between Shias, who have historically expressed wishes to establish an Islamic state in Bahrain, and Sunnis, who are keen not to lose their many privileges, or between radicals and liberals who might share a dislike of the military and economic association of their country with the US, but who are bound to disagree on matters related to individual rights, especially women's rights. With some 40 Shias, over 70 Islamists, and possibly the majority of opposition -- provided that the opposition secure five of 11 seats to be contested Saturday -- the Bahraini parliament is bound to transform, at least in part, this small kingdom. It is a matter of time, commentators say, before the other five Gulf Cooperation Council countries (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman), which also have growing Shia discomfort and Islamist influence, face a similar scenario, by way of elections or otherwise.
