Last week's defeat of the government of Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi in the Senate has clearly demonstrated the difficulty of maintaining political stability with a fragile majority, writes Samia Nkrumah from Rome Last week the government was defeated in the Upper House of Parliament or the Senate after two far left senators rebelled by voting against the government's decision to maintain its military presence in Afghanistan. The two objectionists voted on a matter of political principle rather than political calculation. "The government's defeat last week has clearly demonstrated that there is no consensus within the governing coalition on various issues ranging from foreign policy to economic reform," concluded Lucio Caracciolo, editor-in-chief of the prestigious LIMES geo-political magazine. Nine different political parties ranging from pro-Vatican Christian Democrats and refounded communists have grindingly coexisted within the centre-left governing coalition. The latest crisis that threatened to end Prodi's leadership was simply the culmination of a series of disagreements with smaller left-wing parties within the governing centre-left coalition. The crisis has also shown that the influence of the Vatican remains powerful and able to exercise pressure on the government, according to Caracciolo. Earlier in the year, the Prodi government had proposed a national law on de facto couplet, same-sex and opposite-sex couplet known as the Dico in Italy. This has not gone down well with the Catholic centrist forces within the government and will probably now have to be shelved to appease those very forces within the coalition. Similarly the government's austerity budget for 2007 signaling cuts in welfare system and tax increases for the middle class has not pleased followers from the center or those from the radical left most of who have voted the governing coalition to power. What sealed the government's defeat last week was the fact that some senators for life such as former prime minister and centrist, Giulio Andreotti, also withheld their support presumably in order to indicate their general discontent with the government's programme on the Dico and the austerity budget. The seven senators for life are not elected but nominated by the president of the republic and they are personalities distinguished in specific fields such as the sciences, law, industry or politics. They therefore do not necessarily follow the line of political parties but can influence results as shown last week. Last week's defeat in the Senate has come at a time when the government's popularity has been plunging while the centre-right opposition has been gaining in the polls at the government's expense. Promptly, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has called for fresh elections in the wake of the latest Prodi crisis. The opportunity to capitalise on a Prodi predicament proved too tempting for the centre-right opposition who voted against maintaining Italy's military presence in Afghanistan simply to pursue its own political agenda. Another factor that contributed to the latest crisis is the country's particular electoral law which allows smaller parties to obtain a power that exceeds its electoral clout. A revised electoral law that came into force under the former Berlusconi government was always going to make life difficult for any government with a slim majority. In the Senate, in particular, the Prodi government has a majority of one only and a simple majority does not ensure victory because a quorum has to be reached. Added to that, and according to the same electoral law, abstention votes in the Senate are counted as no-votes. Last week, the 24 centrists' absentee votes ended up as a major force against the government. At the same time, various Italian governments on the left and right have, over the years, relied on smaller parties to form their governments. The Prodi coalition needed the smaller left-wing parties to form a government, and paradoxically it is these very parties that threatened to bring the government down. Likewise, the centre-right opposition has not been of one mind either, but rather has seen internal disputes widening. The tension between the moderate Christian Democrats and the anti-immigrant populist Northern League has never abated. This has led certain centrist leaders to rebel against their coalition leader Berlusconi. One senator, Marco Follini, who broke away from the main Christian Democratic Party has indicated he will lend support to Prodi in the vote of confidence that is taking place at the time of writing. Another moderate centrist leader Pierferdinando Casini has distanced himself from Berlusconi but fell short of lending Prodi support. These developments have recently fed hopes in certain quarters that there might be a move towards creating one grand centre that would eventually govern Italy without the far right and far left forces. In the mean time, Prodi has now gone with a 12-point programme which his allies have pledged to agree to. Analysts are not optimistic. Most contend that even if Prodi manages to get a vote of confidence as he is likely to do, his government will still be at risk in future as long as the present electoral law prevails together with the unusually narrow Senate majority.
