In an impressive show of force, the Russian annexation of the primarily Russian-speaking Crimea after a referendum was a daring assault to Western eyes. Nevertheless, to most pundits in the rest of the world it was a vindication of the rights of ethnic Russians, and Russian speakers, in states that were formally part of the Soviet Union. An even more contentious supposition about the West's reluctance to challenge Russia over Ukraine is the West's inability to deal with issues of this kind and the empty threats of Western powers. The West, the United States and NATO intervened militarily in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya and the result was disaster. The West does not dare intervene again in such a strategically located country as the Ukraine, where a veritable lifeline of oil and gas energy flows through its territory from Russia to Europe. Crimea is no longer a question of a bone to pick between Russia and the West. The meeting between US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart proved that both parties had no inclination towards escalation of the crisis in Ukraine. Russia has no designs of incorporating militarily the southern and eastern Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine. Moscow advocates a federal system of government in its culturally aligned neighbour. “Both sides made suggestions of ways to de-escalate the security and political situation in and around Ukraine,” Kerry told reporters in Paris. Yet, Washington protests in vain. “In a frank conversation this evening with [Russian] Foreign Minister [Sergei] Lavrov, I made clear that the United States still considers the Russian actions to be illegal and illegitimate,” Kerry maintained. Washington's protestations imply a strict adherence to international law that the West itself cannot claim. Double standards are no longer acceptable, precisely because the US is no longer the sole global superpower. Why does the West, and Washington in particular, accept Israeli annexation of Palestinian land, intervening militarily to kick Serbia out of Kosovo, which was internationally accepted as Serbian territory, and deny Russia the right to defend Russian speakers and ethnic Russians in Crimea? Moreover, an hour-long phone discussion late last Friday between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Barack Obama proved unequivocally that the axe is laid at the root of the tree, as a Biblical axiom so aptly puts it. Putin had contacted President Obama, according to US officials. “President Obama underscored to President Putin that the United States continues to support a diplomatic path with the aim of de-escalation of the crisis,” a White House statement read, acknowledging in effect that Moscow is entitled to have its way, come what may. The question now does not concern Crimea. The peninsula is Russian territory, and Russia is on the verge of restoring its former glory, with or without Washington's endorsement. Russia was massing troops on the Ukrainian border, not to invade the country, but to ensure the citizenship rights of the Russian-speaking population of southern and eastern Ukraine. Russian officials made it clear that they have no expansionist designs and that they understand that European fears of Russian expansionism would inevitably dent recovery prospects in the European Union, particularly the eurozone, and former Soviet Union orbit nations such and the Baltic states and Poland that are dependent on Russian oil and gas. The landslide victory for pro-Russia forces in Crimea created a new climate in international relations, cutting Western influence globally down to size. The Russians moved fast, seizing a Ukrainian air force base in Crimea and securing with armoured vehicles the naval headquarters near Sevastopol. The largest Ukrainian warship, Konstiantyn Olshansky, was seized. The Ukraine's last remaining submarine was also confiscated by Russian forces. “Despite the fact that all the commanders had orders to use weapons, the [Ukrainian] commanders did not use these weapons so that there would be no bloodshed,” Ukrainian Defence Minister Ihor Teniuk declared. This is a false note from a man who was not democratically elected. Crimeans voted overwhelmingly to join Russia. Putin-bashing is a distraction. The real problem, as Russia presses, is for Ukraine minus Crimea to acknowledge the full citizenship rights of its Russian-speaking and ethnic Russian population in the eastern and southern parts of the country, and perhaps heed Russia's proposition that Ukraine become a federal state like the Russian Federation itself. “There's a strong sense of Russian nationalism and a sense that somehow the West has taken advantage of Russia in the past and that he [Putin] wants to in some fashion … reverse that or make up for that,” Obama explained. “What I have repeatedly said is that he may be entirely misreading the West. He's certainly misreading American foreign policy. We have no interest in circling Russia and we have no interest in Ukraine beyond letting Ukrainian people make their own decisions about their own lives,” Obama extrapolated. Kerry met Lavrov in Paris Sunday. “We have absolutely no intention of, or interest in, crossing Ukraine's borders,” Lavrov said, putting the lid on the subject. Hubba-bubba some of Russia's European neighbours contend. They are intent on locking horns with Russia but are incapable of doing so without Western backing. Romanian President Traian Basescu expressed concerns about possible Russian incursions into Moldova, a former Soviet Union country bordering Ukraine and Romania where the population is split between ethnic Russians and Romanians. Even one of Russia's closest allies, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, criticised Moscow's annexation of Crimea. “It gives a free hand, especially to states on the threshold of acquiring nuclear weapons. The consequences can be very dangerous,” Lukashenko remarked. “Ukraine should stay a united, undivided, non-aligned state,” Lukashenko added, much to Moscow's consternation. No less than 11 per cent of the population of Belarus, a country of 9.5 million, are ethnic Russians. And even though both Russian and Belarussian are the twin official languages, more than 72 per cent of the population are Russian speakers. Nevertheless, Lukashenko was reported as assuring Putin that: “There is no reason to worry, Belarus will always be with the Russian Federation. Crimea today is part of Russia, and not recognising that fact changes nothing,” Lukashenko noted. He also was quoted as noting: “I would say to the West that Crimea is not dangerous because it has become part of Russia. What is important is the precedent.” Meanwhile, on Saturday former boxing champion and opposition leader Vitaly Klitschko pulled out of the race for the presidency in Ukraine. Klitschko declared he was supporting billionaire Petro Poroshenko. “The only chance of winning is to nominate one candidate from the democratic forces,” Klitschko conceded. But that is putting the cart before the horse. Former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko has also said she will stand. She is abroad in Germany being treated and is reportedly in ill health. Whether she stands or not is of little import if the pro-Russian population of southern and eastern Ukraine are not taken into consideration. All of this political posturing has the sycophants of pro-Russian and anti-Russian Ukrainians chattering noisily about who the next Ukrainian president will be. Ukrainian presidential elections are scheduled to take place 25 May, and it is hoped that the result will not come to smite the land with a curse, splitting this potentially most economically prosperous European nation into feuding fiefdoms of mafia-like billionaires and warlords.
